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VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 1h

Maddalena Ferranna et al. find from 2020 to 2050, #health burdens will cost South American countries $7.3 trillion in lost GDP, equivalent to a 4% annual tax on GDP. Prevention, healthcare reform, & age-friendly policy can turn this burden into a longevity dividend.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

A diagram of the macroeconomic model of how non-communicable diseases and mental health conditions impact economic growth via three channels: morbidity, mortality, and health expenditure.

As populations age, noncommunicable diseases and mental health conditions are draining South American economies, reducing labour supply and diverting resources from investment. This column presents a macroeconomic model for ten South American countries to examine the effects of noncommunicable diseases and mental health conditions on healthcare costs and human capital. The findings suggest that from 2020 to 2050, health burdens will cost these countries $7.3 trillion in lost GDP, equivalent to a 4% annual tax on GDP. Investing in prevention, healthcare reform, and age-friendly policies can turn this burden into a longevity dividend.

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VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 1d

Do banks' climate commitments represent real change or simply greenwashing? M Bernad, @ralphdehaas.bsky.social, & J Pablo Rud find patterns that suggest voluntary climate initiatives can represent meaningful organisational differences and not just cheap talk.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

The low-carbon transition requires substantial financial mobilisation, yet it is unclear whether banks' public climate commitments represent real change or simply greenwashing. This column uses unique survey data from 335 banks across 33 emerging markets to examine their internal green practices and lending approaches. The authors find that climate-committed banks score substantially higher on green management and lending practices, their borrowers are more likely to make green investments, and environmentally oriented firms preferentially match with green banks locally. These patterns suggest voluntary climate initiatives in emerging markets can represent meaningful organisational differences and not just cheap talk, though uneven adoption also reveals the limits of voluntary approaches.

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VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 1d

When plants or animals move, or are moved, to a place they don't belong, there is a risk of damage to natural habitats and an economic cost too.
@franckcourchamp.bsky.social talks to @talknormal.co.uk about how we estimate the size of this risk and what we can do about it

cepr.org/multimedia/h...

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VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 2d

Alberto Nonnis, Felix Roth, & Ahmed Bounfour highlight significant differences in intangible capital investment between France and Germany. Investment in software appears to be 3x higher in France than in Germany, impacting the measurement of German GDP.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

Chart showing intangible capital investment as a percentage of gross value added, 1995-2021.

Closing the productivity gap between the US and Europe will require large investments in intangible capital and new technologies. Using 1995-2021 data from the 2025 EUKLEMS/INTANProd release, this column highlights significant differences in intangible capital investment between France and Germany. Investment in software appears to be three times higher in France than in Germany, while organisational capital is two-and-a-half times larger. Since software, unlike organisational capital, contributes to official GDP calculations, such discrepancies in measurement impact the level of GDP – most notably for Germany, where reported software investment appears unrealistically low.

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VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 2d

Shunsuke Managi summarises evidence on some of the benefits #AI can bring and also the complex challenges it presents, and highlights the need to create a system that will allow AI and other new tech to contribute to solving global challenges and social issues.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

Quantitative analysis of how AI impacts our professional lives, the integrity of organisations, and even our cognitive skills is essential to harness the power of these new technologies. This column summarises evidence on some of the benefits AI can bring and also the complex challenges it presents, and highlights the need to create a system that will allow AI and other new technologies to contribute to solving global challenges and social issues.

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VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 2d

Alignment in central bank communication matters. Speeches from #Fed Chairs that echo the preceding Chair's post-FOMC press conference reinforce #monetarypolicy, while dissonant voices weaken it.
M Djourelova, F Ferroni,‪ @leonardo-melosi.bsky.social, A Villa
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

Central banks rarely speak with one voice. At the Federal Reserve, for instance, each official brings a distinct perspective, and markets parse every speech for hints of where policy is headed. Different views may help make better decisions, but do they also help when explaining those decisions to the public? And what happens when voices diverge? This column shows that alignment in communication matters: speeches that echo the preceding Chair’s post-FOMC press conference reinforce monetary transmission, while dissonant voices create noise that weakens it.

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VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 5d

Administrative data from US workers' paycheques and firms' payrolls show considerable monthly fluctuations in earnings. Pay instability is widespread and represent a genuine, welfare-relevant risk.
@ganong.bsky.social, P Noel, C Patterson, J Vavra, A Weinberg
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

Graph of the heterogeneity of earnings volatility for salaried and hourly workers measured as a change from the previous month.

Over the past decade, cities and states in the US have enacted ‘fair workweek’ laws to stabilise worker schedules. This column uses administrative data on US workers’ paycheques and firms’ payrolls to document considerable monthly fluctuations in earnings. Pay instability is widespread, disproportionately hits lower‑paid hourly workers, and is largely driven by firms’ labour demand rather than worker-related determinants such as childcare demands. These fluctuations represent genuine, welfare-relevant risk that materially shapes household decisions and has attendant effects on the economy.

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VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 6d

China's Belt and Road Initiative has reshaped Japan's overseas infrastructure engagement and diplomacy with participants of the initiative. Shuhei Nishitateno and Yasuyuki Todo find that Japanese project counts fell and foreign leaders visited Japan less often.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

Infrastructure diplomacy has become a central arena for strategic competition. This column examines how China’s Belt and Road Initiative has reshaped Japan’s overseas infrastructure engagement and diplomacy with participants of the initiative. It finds that Japanese project counts fell and foreign leaders visited Japan less often. To be successful, Western initiatives such as Build Back Better World and the EU’s Global Gateway need coordinated strategies and rapid deployment mechanisms. They should also integrate infrastructure finance with strategic diplomacy, ensuring that development efforts reinforce political engagement instead of attempting to replace it.

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VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 7d

Steven Kamin analyses how, in the months following 'Liberation Day', the dollar switched from rising during periods of market volatility to falling, and thus appeared to switch from a safe-haven to a 'risk-on' currency.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

Graph of the VIX volatility index and DXY dollar index from 1 January to 26 August 2025. A dashed vertical line identifies 'Liberation Day'.

There is general agreement that a currency’s safe-haven status can be gauged by its response to changes in financial volatility. This column documents how, in the months following the Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” announcement, the dollar switched from rising during periods of market volatility to falling, and thus appeared to switch from a safe-haven to a ‘risk-on’ currency. Its reversion to traditional flight-to-safety behaviour in recent months may indicate that this ‘risk-on’ episode was a one-time event, but it is also possible that even as financial markets have calmed down, foreign entities are taking steps to reduce their dependence on the dollar for trade, payments, and investment.

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VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 8d

Rie Matsumoto introduces recent approaches to identifying innovative and disruptive technologies from academic literature. The methods can help policymakers discuss which fields should receive intensive support and identify areas of risk.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

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VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 9d

M Henrekson, L Jonung, & M Lundahl argue that Europe needs a more pluralistic, socially grounded, & inclusive system for the training of economists. They discuss a two-track approach for PhD training that balances frontier research and applied economics and policy.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

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VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 9d

Michele Ca' Zorzi, Gianluigi Lopardo, and Ana-Simona Manu @ecb.europa.eu use firm earnings calls and find that early engagement with #AI topics boosted stock market performance beyond the immediate impact on expected earnings.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

Average GenAI exposure across the sample of earnings calls and the sentiment analysis of GenAI in those calls.

The launch of ChatGPT in late 2022 marked a turning point in how firms and investors view generative artificial intelligence. This column measures the extent and tone of firms’ discussions of GenAI in earnings calls, and finds that early engagement with AI topics boosted stock market performance beyond the immediate impact on expected earnings.

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VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 9d

Chinese investment platform data show digital nudges and financial education via the platform increase stock market participation, portfolio diversification, and risk-adjusted returns, even among older, less educated, less affluent individuals.
X Guo, Q Sun, B Yeung
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

Graph of response rates to digital nudging across repeated nudging horizons of one month intervals.

Stock market participation remains low, especially among the older, less affluent, and less educated households, despite its clear benefits for wealth preservation and growth. Although digitisation has reduced some barriers, many households remain disengaged. Using data from a Chinese investment platform, this column shows that digital nudges and financial education via the platform increase stock market participation, promote portfolio diversification, and improve risk-adjusted returns, even among the older, less educated, and less affluent individuals. Digital platforms can help democratise finance by delivering scalable, low-cost financial education.

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VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 12d

Data of 48 US states and over 120 industries from 1880 to 2007 show strong unconditional convergence in manufacturing productivity. Poorer states grew faster, closing gaps at an average rate of 7.6% per year.
Alexander Klein, Miguel León-Ledesma, Nicholas Crafts
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

Graph of unconditional convergence rates in US manufacturing by decade.

Economic historians have long debated whether lagging regions can catch up in productivity with industrial leaders. This column shows that, under the right conditions, such catch-up can be remarkably rapid. Using newly digitised US Census of Manufactures data covering 48 states and over 120 industries from 1880 to 2007, it finds strong unconditional convergence in manufacturing productivity: poorer states grew faster, closing gaps at an average rate of 7.6% per year. This far exceeds the 'iron law' of 2% conditional convergence often found in GDP per capita studies, and it accelerated dramatically in the 1940s.

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Reposted by VoxEU @ CEPR

Centre for Economic Policy Research @cepr.org · 12d

🎉VoxTalks Economics, presented by @talknormal.co.uk, is a finalist for a Signal Award in the education category!

🗳️Cast your vote before 9 October at the link below.
vote.signalaward.com/PublicVoting...
#EconSky

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VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 13d

Data from Japanese primary and secondary schools show that heat exposure lowers student test scores, with disadvantaged students experiencing a greater loss. Access to AC in schools offsets these adverse effects.
Mika Akesaka & @hitoshishigeoka.bsky.social
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

A graph of the average impact of cumulative heat/cold exposure on test scores with and without school air conditioning. Schools without air conditioning see a more negative impact on test scores in hot weather.

Extreme heat events are becoming more frequent and intense with climate change. Children are particularly vulnerable to such environmental stressors. This column uses nationwide exam data from Japanese primary and secondary schools to explore how heat exposure affects student learning. Heat exposure lowers student test scores, with disadvantaged students experiencing a greater reduction in scores. Access to air conditioning in schools substantially offsets these adverse effects and especially benefits lower performers. Investing in school air conditioning could promote both efficiency and equity.

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VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 14d

Despite the paths to social advancement being different, strong welfare systems in Western Europe and communism + bureaucratic shortcomings in the East created a landscape where welfare distribution equality was similar.
J Costa-i-Font, A Nicińska, M Rossello Roig
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

Graphs showing self-reported health across age cohorts of individuals exposed and unexposed to Soviet communist regimes.

Inequality is a major concern for many economies, prompting the question of whether some regimes are more effective at reducing inequality than others. This column uses measures of welfare including health status and living space to show that, despite Soviet communism’s aim of radical egalitarianism, it failed to eliminate inequality as effectively as promised. While communism did lead to higher upward mobility, strong welfare systems in Western Europe and bureaucratic shortcomings in the East created a landscape where equality in welfare distribution was broadly similar, despite the paths to social advancement being markedly different.

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Reposted by VoxEU @ CEPR

Centre for Economic Policy Research @cepr.org · 14d

On 22 September, the US treasury secretary said that the US "stands ready to do what is needed" to stabilise the Argentinian economy. Revisit this 2024 VoxEU column by S Katz & @eduardoyeyati.bsky.social to see how #Argentina diverged from other developed economies.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

When did Argentina lose its mojo?

There are recurrent debates about the ongoing underperformance of Argentina’s economy. This column proposes a metric to characterise and date Argentina’s divergence from a benchmark group of countries with comparable initial incomes per capita. The authors find Argentina’s divergence to be longer than usually conjectured, with marked tranches in the first half of the 20th century and the post-WWII period. They identify specific dates for the inflection points, discuss the context in each case, offer an explanation for the enduring divergence, and describe Argentina’s volatile chapter since the 1990s.

cepr.org

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Reposted by VoxEU @ CEPR

Centre for Economic Policy Research @cepr.org · 15d

The independence of the Federal Reserve is being tested. In February, A Athanasopoulos, D Masciandaro, & @davideromelli.bsky.social wrote for VoxEU that improvements in central bank independence yield long-lasting benefits, including reducing inflation persistence.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

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VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 15d

Amory Gethin & Emmanuel Saez present a new database covering 160 countries documenting global patterns in hours worked. Hours per adult average 25 per week, with a strong bell shape by age. Women supply 35% of GDP-producing hours.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

A graph of global working hours by age and gender showing a strong bell shape.

Working hours are a fundamental determinant of economic growth and wellbeing, but we still lack a comprehensive picture of how they vary globally and historically. This column presents a new database covering 160 countries, documenting global patterns in hours worked. Hours per adult average 25 per week, with a strong bell shape by age. Women supply 35% of GDP-producing hours. Hours among prime-age adults remain stable with development, with falling male hours offset by rising female labour-force participation. Labour taxes are negatively related to hours worked, likely due to social spending, formal work, and labour regulations.

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VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 15d

UK CPI inflation in 1975 reached 25%, a period known as the 'Great Inflation'. Michael Bordo shows it was fiscal reforms that played a key role in ending the Great Inflation, highlighting the importance of the fiscal regime for inflation & effective monetary policy.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

A graph of the UK consumer price index from 1919 to 2019.

UK CPI inflation in 1975 reached 25%, a period now known as the ‘Great Inflation’. This column uses a range of empirical and narrative evidence to illustrate the importance of fiscal policy in this period. While stabilising and reducing debt has been the primary peacetime fiscal policy objective for most of modern British history, this was almost completely abandoned during the Great Inflation period. The Great Inflation ended, in part, following a series of fiscal reforms, thus highlighting the importance of the fiscal regime for inflation and the effective operation of monetary policy.

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VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 15d

A more integrated capital market in #Europe could strengthen investment and boost GDP by 1.5% by reducing the cost of capital and encouraging the entry of investors more inclined to finance innovative projects.
F Venditti, M Caivano, P Cova, K Pallara, M Pisani
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

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VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 16d

Central banks facing post-pandemic #inflation often considered 'looking through' supply shocks. However, Guido Traficante shows that such look-through strategies can amplify inflation when information is incomplete.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

Graphs showing the effects of when look-through amplifies inflation under incomplete information.

Central banks facing post-pandemic inflation often considered ‘looking through’ supply shocks. Using a New Keynesian framework in which agents gradually learn whether a cost-push shock is temporary or persistent, this column shows that such look-through strategies can amplify inflation when information is incomplete. In contrast, a standard Taylor rule prevents an additional demand-driven inflation impulse and dominates look-through in most plausible calibrations. When policymakers revise beliefs and lift off earlier once persistence becomes sufficiently likely, disinflation is faster – especially with steeper price and wage Phillips curves. The case for look-through survives only when the Phillips curve is very flat and society puts unusually high weight on output stabilisation.

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VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 16d

European countries face an unprecedented demographic challenge. Inflows of regular foreign workers are key to support employment and growth. Italy can learn from its neighbours to make its migration policies more effective.
G Basso, E Gentili, S Lattanzio, G Roma
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

Graph of changes in working-age population between 2023 and 2035 under different migration scenarios in Italy, Germany, Spain, France, and the Netherlands.

With working-age populations projected to decline rapidly, all European countries face an unprecedented demographic challenge. Inflows of regular foreign workers are thus key to support employment and growth. This column argues that Italy, where the demographic decline is particularly sharp, has a lot to learn from its neighbours to make its migration policies more effective and aligned with the country’s economic and social needs.

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VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 16d

Real-time GDP releases understated the strength of the post-pandemic recovery in both the euro area & the United States. This distorted view painted a more pessimistic picture than subsequently revised data revealed, masking demand pressures.
D Giannone, G Primiceri
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

Graphs showing GDP in the US and the euro area: projections vs real-time data

Preliminary data releases can diverge significantly from subsequently revised figures, complicating economic policy decisions made in real time. This column shows how real-time GDP releases understated the strength of the post-pandemic recovery in both the euro area and the United States. This distorted view painted a more pessimistic picture than subsequently revised data revealed, masking demand pressures.

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