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Veli-Pekka Kivimäki @vpkivimaki.bsky.social · 11d

Let's zoom out from the drones. What Europe needs to counter the Russia threat is robust intelligence and counterintelligence capabilities, and credible military power with defense production that could sustain it through war. Early warning and capability to disrupt and deter.

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Veli-Pekka Kivimäki @vpkivimaki.bsky.social · Aug 30

New research publication by Finnish National Defence University: 'An army with too many people and not enough soldiers?' : Russia's military manpower system in flux

'An army with too many people and not enough soldiers?' : Russia's military manpower system in flux

www.doria.fi

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Veli-Pekka Kivimäki @vpkivimaki.bsky.social · Jul 21

I had this experience writing about Ukraine in 2014-2015. So much has disappeared from original sources.

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Veli-Pekka Kivimäki @vpkivimaki.bsky.social · Jul 21

In the past week I read ”The Order of Time” and ”White Holes” by Carlo Rovelli, and I feel like these adventures in theoretical physics have twisted my brain into a knot. 😅

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Veli-Pekka Kivimäki @vpkivimaki.bsky.social · Jul 10

UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine: ”With at least 1,575 civilian casualties (232 killed; 1,343 injured), June 2025 has been the month with the highest number of civilian casualties in three years.”

Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict — June 2025 | UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine

With at least 1,575 civilian casualties (232 killed; 1,343 injured), June 2025 has been the month with the highest number of civilian casualties in three years. The number of civilians killed in June ...

ukraine.ohchr.org

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Veli-Pekka Kivimäki @vpkivimaki.bsky.social · Jul 2

Think I’ll write about origins and current state of Finnish intelligence next.

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Veli-Pekka Kivimäki @vpkivimaki.bsky.social · Jul 1

Here we go.

Introduction

How we're here and what to expect.

open.substack.com

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Veli-Pekka Kivimäki @vpkivimaki.bsky.social · Jun 30

I have set up a new Substack. There are some things I want to write about over the summer, so you can follow along here: vpkivimaki.substack.com

OpenINT by Veli-Pekka Kivimäki | Substack

Discussion, research and analysis on intelligence, with a Finnish twist. Click to read OpenINT by Veli-Pekka Kivimäki, a Substack publication. Launched 3 hours ago.

vpkivimaki.substack.com

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Veli-Pekka Kivimäki @vpkivimaki.bsky.social · Jun 28

Agree with @davidpriess.bsky.social 100%: investments in intelligence should not be bypassed while Europe makes historic raises in defense spending. Good observations on making intelligence relevant for the policymaker in his recent article. icds.ee/en/seizing-t...

Seizing the Opportunity to Enhance Intelligence-Policy Relations - ICDS

The unusual geopolitical moment created by Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and, now, by the shift in official US policy and tone present enormous challenges for Europe’s political leaders, nat...

icds.ee

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Veli-Pekka Kivimäki @vpkivimaki.bsky.social · Jun 21

Thanks Janne! @markstout.bsky.social, can you drop me an email? Could potentially help.

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Reposted by Veli-Pekka Kivimäki

David Priess @davidpriess.bsky.social · May 7

In light of CNN’s recent reporting that the administration has cut back access to the President’s Daily Brief, I trace here the evolution of a dozen presidents’ choices about the PDB’s dissemination—a 60 year “who’s who” of intelligence-policy relations:
engelsbergideas.com/essays/the-u...

The US President's daily dose of intelligence

Donald Trump’s reported restriction of the President’s Daily Brief represents just the latest change in six decades of ebb and flow in the readership of this top secret, highly coveted document.

engelsbergideas.com

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Veli-Pekka Kivimäki @vpkivimaki.bsky.social · Apr 30

Have to say I'm somewhat blown away by what ChatGPT Deep Research can do. I pointed it at archive material I know quite well, gave few narrowing criteria, and the specifics it could draw from online archive material matched very well with what I know about the source material. Impressive progress.

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Reposted by Veli-Pekka Kivimäki

POLITICO Europe @politico.eu · Apr 12

NATO is concerned that Russia is seeking to deploy nuclear weapons in space, a development that could threaten the thousands of satellites orbiting the Earth that are crucial to defense as well as people's daily lives, the alliance's chief said.

NATO chief is worried about Russian space nukes

“The development of nuclear weapons in space is a way for Russia to improve its capabilities,” NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte tells Welt am Sonntag.

www.politico.eu

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Reposted by Veli-Pekka Kivimäki

Megan Cassella @megancnbc.bsky.social · Apr 9

TL;DR: The new U.S. tariff rate against our two largest trading partners is either 10%, 25% or 35%, and so far no one I've reached out to at the White House is able to tell me which.

Megan Cassella @megancnbc.bsky.social · Apr 9

So the White House says the 10% baseline tariff also applies to Canada & Mexico. It has not said whether that's the effective new rate itself; whether it adds to the 25% fentanyl tariff, making the new rate 35%; or whether it kicks in only if the fentanyl tariff falls away

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Reposted by Veli-Pekka Kivimäki

The New York Times @nytimes.com · Apr 9

Treasury bonds are traditionally seen as a safe haven in times of economic turmoil, because they offer investors a guaranteed payment backed by the U.S. government. Instead, investors are selling the assets.

Here's what to know.

Another Rocky Day in Markets: Stocks and Bonds Sink

With the S&P 500 near a bear market, shares in Europe and Asia fell as China and other major U.S. trading partners confronted significantly higher tariffs. Investors also sold U.S. bonds.

www.nytimes.com

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Reposted by Veli-Pekka Kivimäki

Alexa @alexakoenig.bsky.social · Apr 7

Open-source researchers: whether you’re actively searching for evidence re: conflict-related sexual violence or not, you may find it. We've just launched the pilot Open-Source Practitioner’s Guide to the Murad Code w/ IICI to help www.muradcode.com/open-source-... @berkeleylaw.bsky.social

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Veli-Pekka Kivimäki @vpkivimaki.bsky.social · Apr 7

If Trump views Europe as an economic competitor, recent actions seem to only help close ranks in Europe.

POLITICO Europe @politico.eu · Apr 7

The market shock has added new urgency to coalition negotiations between German chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz’s center-right Christian Democrats (CDU) and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD).

🔗 ow.ly/ohAg50VvRZT

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Reposted by Veli-Pekka Kivimäki

The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · Apr 4

⚡️UPDATED: 16 killed, including 6 children, over 50 injured in Russian strike on Kryvyi Rih.

Russia launched a ballistic missile attack on Kryvyi Rih in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on April 4, hitting a residential neighborhood, setting buildings on fire and causing severe damage.

16 killed, including 6 children, over 50 injured in Russian strike on Kryvyi Rih

Russia launched a ballistic missile attack on Kryvyi Rih in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on April 4, hitting a residential neighborhood, setting buildings on fire and causing severe damage, according to Olek...

kyivindependent.com

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Veli-Pekka Kivimäki @vpkivimaki.bsky.social · Apr 4

Not only that, it will also advertise things you already own.

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Veli-Pekka Kivimäki @vpkivimaki.bsky.social · Apr 1

Major security related decisions by the Finnish government today:
🔘 Defense spending will be increased to 3% of GDP by 2029
🔘 Finland will start preparations for withdrawal from the Ottawa Treaty, which bans anti-personnel mines

Finland prepares to leave Ottawa Treaty banning anti-personnel landmines

Finland's defence spending will be increased to three percent of GDP by 2029 and much of that money will go towards upgrading Finnish Army equipment.

yle.fi

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Veli-Pekka Kivimäki @vpkivimaki.bsky.social · Mar 29

Deterring China in the Arctic is tied to also dealing with the Russians, as Russia has become a route for China to access the Arctic. We explored the Russia/China Arctic relationship in our annual report. katsaus.supo.fi/en/china-in-...

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Veli-Pekka Kivimäki @vpkivimaki.bsky.social · Mar 29

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Reposted by Veli-Pekka Kivimäki

Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · Mar 27

A few thoughts:
— DPRK baseline ability to sustain conventional warfare is low (US IC estimate of 10-14 days of intense war)
— nuclear use is an offset to having to fight an intense conventional war against a conventionally superior, nuclear-backed alliance

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Iskander Rehman @irehman.bsky.social · Mar 27

"ROK intelligence suggests if North Korea’s rate of export continues, it could affect its ability to sustain a conflict on the Korean Peninsula. In other words, North Korea is potentially compromising its own military readiness to support Russia’s needs."

A must-read on the DPRK's role in Ukraine.

ssi.armywarcollege.edu

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Veli-Pekka Kivimäki @vpkivimaki.bsky.social · Mar 24

Russia and China present the most significant cyber threats against Finnish national security. Russia has created a permissive environment for cyber criminals, which makes it possible also to mount deniable cyber operations. More about cyber threats to national security in this interview in Finnish.

Supo: Venäjä ja Kiina ovat merkittävä kyberuhka Suomelle

Suojelupoliisi avasi ensimmäistä kertaa Suomeen kohdistuvia kyberuhkia.

yle.fi

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Reposted by Veli-Pekka Kivimäki

Petr Kozlov @kozlov.bsky.social · Mar 23

In Moscow, officials believe that Washington — which doesn’t view the exact dividing lines as a major priority — will pressure Kyiv to concede even more territory than Russia has been able to seize by force. www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/03/23/p...

Playing for Time: What the Kremlin Wants in New Talks with the U.S. on Ukraine - The Moscow Times

As high-level delegations from the U.S. and Russia arrive in Saudi Arabia for the second round of bilateral talks aimed at ending the war in Ukraine, Moscow’s envoys will have one goal on their mind: ...

www.themoscowtimes.com

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