Doomed to fail from that moment on

This is the second of what I plan to make a regular article series looking into two or three interesting events from the week.

This map is a collaborative project with @thomasvlinge.bsky.social

For those that want or need it, here is a higher resolution version along with the exported shapefiles: buymeacoffee.com/warmapper/e/462985

The situation in the region continues to deteriorate and is spilling over into neighbouring countries.

Meanwhile, in Mali, JNIM has enforced a fuel blockade on routes to the capital and other major cities, ambushing and destroying tankers bringing fuel into the country.

All three countries have experienced military coups in recent years. In their aftermath, the juntas pulled out of ECOWAS, created the “Alliance des États du Sahel” (AES), and cut most ties with traditional Western partners.

When I do resume posting, the Ukraine updates will be limited to end-of-month summaries, highlighting the momentum of one side or the other. The main focus will shift to underreported conflict areas.

Thank you for your attention to this matter!

Use the arrows at the bottom of the window to cycle through the slides.

As with all updates, a stoary map is available on Soar a day earlier: soar.short.gy/Ukrain...

An overview map of the situation across Ukraine as of 09 April 2025

The situation in Toretsk is more clarified since the last post on the city. Though widely contested, Russian forces retained a presence in areas throughout the city. These have since come back into their control, and some forces have now moved northwest of the city.

Russia crossed the Oskil again, this time at Kamianka. They now control or contest seven settlements on the west side of the Oskil.

In Belgorod, Russian counterattacks have pushed Popovka and Demidovka back to contested settlements.

Southwest of Pokrovsk, Russia has attacked towards, and come within 3km of, the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast boundary.

Russia has taken positions along both sides of the Sumy / Kursk border, capturing the settlements of Veselivka and Basivka and reaching Loknia.

In Zaporizhzhia, Russia has taken the settlement of Lobkove after the recent capture of Stepove and Mali Shcherbaky. A Ukrainian counterattack into Shcherbaky has prevented its capture so far.

These 4 charts show how control has changed in the 4 most active oblasts.

Other occupied oblasts have had minimal or no changes to control.

Russia retook control of the remaining 358km² of Kursk, while Ukraine has captured 11.88km² of Belgorod.

This results in a total combined net Russian gain for the month of 618.84km², the third highest in the past year.

This chart shows monthly net changes in control over the past year.