Ryan Cummings
@weakinstrument.bsky.social
Chief of Staff @SIEPR. Economic Adviser @MITCEEPR. PhD'ing
@UW. 2021-2023 WH CEA.
I research energy markets during the transition and, as a treat to myself, consumer sentiment. Views my own.
@UW. 2021-2023 WH CEA.
I research energy markets during the transition and, as a treat to myself, consumer sentiment. Views my own.
A huge congrats to the Harvard Endowment, who in Q3 2025 bought at the top of the market to nearly quadruple its Bitcoin holdings, only to watch that position get absolutely destroyed, losing over $200 million in less than 6 months.
Another big win for active management!
Another big win for active management!
February 13, 2026 at 1:05 AM
A huge congrats to the Harvard Endowment, who in Q3 2025 bought at the top of the market to nearly quadruple its Bitcoin holdings, only to watch that position get absolutely destroyed, losing over $200 million in less than 6 months.
Another big win for active management!
Another big win for active management!
As usual, the current Administration is laser-focused on pressing issues, both at home and abroad, that keep Americans up at night.
Very glad to see this important policy process elevated to the level where the highest ranking cabinet official personally weights in on it 👏👏👏
Very glad to see this important policy process elevated to the level where the highest ranking cabinet official personally weights in on it 👏👏👏
December 10, 2025 at 1:06 PM
As usual, the current Administration is laser-focused on pressing issues, both at home and abroad, that keep Americans up at night.
Very glad to see this important policy process elevated to the level where the highest ranking cabinet official personally weights in on it 👏👏👏
Very glad to see this important policy process elevated to the level where the highest ranking cabinet official personally weights in on it 👏👏👏
DISTURBING: I went out in Palo Alto to perform a tactical threat analysis on behalf of the Supreme Intergalactic Commander of Warfare Hegseth, and found the median antifa member is 67 and drives a luxury German car.
October 18, 2025 at 9:09 PM
DISTURBING: I went out in Palo Alto to perform a tactical threat analysis on behalf of the Supreme Intergalactic Commander of Warfare Hegseth, and found the median antifa member is 67 and drives a luxury German car.
End/ While we can say what isn’t causing the gap, we don’t have a good answer for what is causing it. For a more informed take, we asked our friend @draliceevans.bsky.social
what she thought. We think examining this more deeply is a ripe area for future research.
what she thought. We think examining this more deeply is a ripe area for future research.
September 29, 2025 at 2:25 PM
End/ While we can say what isn’t causing the gap, we don’t have a good answer for what is causing it. For a more informed take, we asked our friend @draliceevans.bsky.social
what she thought. We think examining this more deeply is a ripe area for future research.
what she thought. We think examining this more deeply is a ripe area for future research.
4/ We then use individual-level data to see if demographic factors can help explain the gap. Surprisingly, we find that controls such as education, income, age, and political party explain little (<20%) of the gap.
September 29, 2025 at 2:24 PM
4/ We then use individual-level data to see if demographic factors can help explain the gap. Surprisingly, we find that controls such as education, income, age, and political party explain little (<20%) of the gap.
3/ Interestingly, the gap—in both level and proportional terms—increases when a R is president. This largely reflects the fact that men are more likely to be Rs, and Rs are more optimistic when there is an R president.
September 29, 2025 at 2:24 PM
3/ Interestingly, the gap—in both level and proportional terms—increases when a R is president. This largely reflects the fact that men are more likely to be Rs, and Rs are more optimistic when there is an R president.
2/ In what we call “The Gender Optimism Gap,” we use UMich Consumer Sentiment data and (consistent with others) find since the 70s (as far back as the data go), women are persistently less optimistic than men about the economy.
September 29, 2025 at 2:23 PM
2/ In what we call “The Gender Optimism Gap,” we use UMich Consumer Sentiment data and (consistent with others) find since the 70s (as far back as the data go), women are persistently less optimistic than men about the economy.
There's a lot of bad happening in the world today. So take some time to read something good--dare I say, great!--from
@jaredb-econ.bsky.social and @nealemahoney.bsky.social who boil down the econ of "affordability" to a simple, three-legged framework. Good economics, good policy!
@jaredb-econ.bsky.social and @nealemahoney.bsky.social who boil down the econ of "affordability" to a simple, three-legged framework. Good economics, good policy!
September 23, 2025 at 2:17 PM
There's a lot of bad happening in the world today. So take some time to read something good--dare I say, great!--from
@jaredb-econ.bsky.social and @nealemahoney.bsky.social who boil down the econ of "affordability" to a simple, three-legged framework. Good economics, good policy!
@jaredb-econ.bsky.social and @nealemahoney.bsky.social who boil down the econ of "affordability" to a simple, three-legged framework. Good economics, good policy!
If this is true, this is the largest public corruption scandal in the history of the United States and it's not even close. It would amount to a **$2B** bribe to the President; the next closest scandal in terms of $ would be Teapot Dome, a measly ~$10M in today's $s
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/15/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/15/u...
September 15, 2025 at 4:27 PM
If this is true, this is the largest public corruption scandal in the history of the United States and it's not even close. It would amount to a **$2B** bribe to the President; the next closest scandal in terms of $ would be Teapot Dome, a measly ~$10M in today's $s
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/15/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/15/u...
What the crypto industry wants is simple: insurance--paid for taxpayers--that essentially provides a price floor for their useless assets. It's not subtle, and it's not complicated.
August 26, 2025 at 6:53 PM
What the crypto industry wants is simple: insurance--paid for taxpayers--that essentially provides a price floor for their useless assets. It's not subtle, and it's not complicated.
Was great chatting with
@emmettlindner.bsky.social
about how if Trump follows through on his tariffs against Brazil, coffee drinkers in the US should expect to see the price of a cup increase by about $0.25 within a couple months.
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/13/b...
@emmettlindner.bsky.social
about how if Trump follows through on his tariffs against Brazil, coffee drinkers in the US should expect to see the price of a cup increase by about $0.25 within a couple months.
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/13/b...
July 13, 2025 at 9:36 PM
Was great chatting with
@emmettlindner.bsky.social
about how if Trump follows through on his tariffs against Brazil, coffee drinkers in the US should expect to see the price of a cup increase by about $0.25 within a couple months.
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/13/b...
@emmettlindner.bsky.social
about how if Trump follows through on his tariffs against Brazil, coffee drinkers in the US should expect to see the price of a cup increase by about $0.25 within a couple months.
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/13/b...
5/ The piece ends with Mische giving policy recommendations without any sort of sober cost-benefit analysis of what he’s proposing. For example, he proposes the state give the refiners an operating subsidy. This is a very, very bad idea!
June 23, 2025 at 2:36 PM
5/ The piece ends with Mische giving policy recommendations without any sort of sober cost-benefit analysis of what he’s proposing. For example, he proposes the state give the refiners an operating subsidy. This is a very, very bad idea!
4/ Then there’s the factual errors, such as the claim that CA has never faced a 20% reduction in gasoline supply. This is, um, not true! Refining capacity shrank by ~1/3rd b/n 1982 and 1995, while demand increased by 25%!
June 23, 2025 at 2:35 PM
4/ Then there’s the factual errors, such as the claim that CA has never faced a 20% reduction in gasoline supply. This is, um, not true! Refining capacity shrank by ~1/3rd b/n 1982 and 1995, while demand increased by 25%!
3/ Mische (the author) gives very limited details about the “models” he uses to get his results (which is not standard scholarly practice). The few details he does give, however, reveals extreme assumptions that are not grounded in any theory or empirics.
June 23, 2025 at 2:35 PM
3/ Mische (the author) gives very limited details about the “models” he uses to get his results (which is not standard scholarly practice). The few details he does give, however, reveals extreme assumptions that are not grounded in any theory or empirics.
2/ The post is by a consultant and Professor of Practice at USC Marshall. The main, and crucial, conceptual error the post makes is not understanding that because CA is already a net importer of gasoline, the margin at which prices are set doesn’t change with additional refinery closures.
June 23, 2025 at 2:34 PM
2/ The post is by a consultant and Professor of Practice at USC Marshall. The main, and crucial, conceptual error the post makes is not understanding that because CA is already a net importer of gasoline, the margin at which prices are set doesn’t change with additional refinery closures.
The news today has got me thinking about all the ways Iran away from my feelings and didn’t want to be vulnerable so I hid my emotional enrichment materials deep inside a mountain of loneliness and not even the largest love bombs you were capable of dropping got through. You don’t have to respond.
June 22, 2025 at 2:30 AM
The news today has got me thinking about all the ways Iran away from my feelings and didn’t want to be vulnerable so I hid my emotional enrichment materials deep inside a mountain of loneliness and not even the largest love bombs you were capable of dropping got through. You don’t have to respond.
What an unnecessary and ill-informed forecast.
The concern is much, much less with global *supply* of oil than it is with the *transportation* of it.
During Russia/Ukraine, ~0 supply went offline. But it took a while to rescramble the 3mbpd that Russia was providing to the market!
The concern is much, much less with global *supply* of oil than it is with the *transportation* of it.
During Russia/Ukraine, ~0 supply went offline. But it took a while to rescramble the 3mbpd that Russia was providing to the market!
June 17, 2025 at 11:46 PM
What an unnecessary and ill-informed forecast.
The concern is much, much less with global *supply* of oil than it is with the *transportation* of it.
During Russia/Ukraine, ~0 supply went offline. But it took a while to rescramble the 3mbpd that Russia was providing to the market!
The concern is much, much less with global *supply* of oil than it is with the *transportation* of it.
During Russia/Ukraine, ~0 supply went offline. But it took a while to rescramble the 3mbpd that Russia was providing to the market!
Im at the No Kings protest in SF and there’s more American flags here than a NASCAR rally
June 14, 2025 at 7:14 PM
Im at the No Kings protest in SF and there’s more American flags here than a NASCAR rally
Work requirements cost more money than they save, but you can tell in OBBB that the real Republican goal is to just kick people off their health insurance because they're closing every single Job Corps facility in the country, which helps people get training for entry-level jobs.
June 10, 2025 at 7:05 PM
Work requirements cost more money than they save, but you can tell in OBBB that the real Republican goal is to just kick people off their health insurance because they're closing every single Job Corps facility in the country, which helps people get training for entry-level jobs.
Californians net taxes to to the Federal Government was greater than every other state in the country except for NY. So the Trump Administration wants to still collect money from California, but not give anything back.
June 6, 2025 at 6:03 PM
Californians net taxes to to the Federal Government was greater than every other state in the country except for NY. So the Trump Administration wants to still collect money from California, but not give anything back.
@nealemahoney.bsky.social I wrote a piece looking at the consequences of Trump's tariffs getting struck down. If the ruling holds, they'll have to pay $20B back to importers, which would be a ~$110 transfer from every American household to firm profits.
nealemahoney.substack.com/p/if-it-stic...
nealemahoney.substack.com/p/if-it-stic...
May 29, 2025 at 8:56 PM
@nealemahoney.bsky.social I wrote a piece looking at the consequences of Trump's tariffs getting struck down. If the ruling holds, they'll have to pay $20B back to importers, which would be a ~$110 transfer from every American household to firm profits.
nealemahoney.substack.com/p/if-it-stic...
nealemahoney.substack.com/p/if-it-stic...
To add to Neale's analysis on Medicaid, the degree to which House Rs are willing to stick it to their own constituents to give rich people a tax cut is stunning.
Here's what clean-energy investment+jobs (that the House bill is trying to kill!) looks like across CDs. Rs benefit 4X as much as Ds!
Here's what clean-energy investment+jobs (that the House bill is trying to kill!) looks like across CDs. Rs benefit 4X as much as Ds!
May 21, 2025 at 1:44 AM
To add to Neale's analysis on Medicaid, the degree to which House Rs are willing to stick it to their own constituents to give rich people a tax cut is stunning.
Here's what clean-energy investment+jobs (that the House bill is trying to kill!) looks like across CDs. Rs benefit 4X as much as Ds!
Here's what clean-energy investment+jobs (that the House bill is trying to kill!) looks like across CDs. Rs benefit 4X as much as Ds!
[WWE announcer voice] Oh my GOODNESS the market has oil backwardated! Wait, no., NO..now it's in CONTANGO!
[Back end of futures curve silently arrives at the ring] OH MY GOODNESS THE BACK MONTHS HAVE SHOWED UP! IT'S BACKWARDATED AGAIN! I HAVE NEVER SEEN ANYTHING LIKE THIS IN MY LIFE
[Back end of futures curve silently arrives at the ring] OH MY GOODNESS THE BACK MONTHS HAVE SHOWED UP! IT'S BACKWARDATED AGAIN! I HAVE NEVER SEEN ANYTHING LIKE THIS IN MY LIFE
May 5, 2025 at 6:15 PM
[WWE announcer voice] Oh my GOODNESS the market has oil backwardated! Wait, no., NO..now it's in CONTANGO!
[Back end of futures curve silently arrives at the ring] OH MY GOODNESS THE BACK MONTHS HAVE SHOWED UP! IT'S BACKWARDATED AGAIN! I HAVE NEVER SEEN ANYTHING LIKE THIS IN MY LIFE
[Back end of futures curve silently arrives at the ring] OH MY GOODNESS THE BACK MONTHS HAVE SHOWED UP! IT'S BACKWARDATED AGAIN! I HAVE NEVER SEEN ANYTHING LIKE THIS IN MY LIFE
The price of RBOB yesterday closed at $1.98.
Which means POTUS's team is showing him the cost of *wholesale, unfinished* gasoline, which does not include the cost of oxygenates and all distribution+marketing costs, and telling him this is the price of gasoline you are paying at the pump.
Which means POTUS's team is showing him the cost of *wholesale, unfinished* gasoline, which does not include the cost of oxygenates and all distribution+marketing costs, and telling him this is the price of gasoline you are paying at the pump.
May 2, 2025 at 8:32 PM
The price of RBOB yesterday closed at $1.98.
Which means POTUS's team is showing him the cost of *wholesale, unfinished* gasoline, which does not include the cost of oxygenates and all distribution+marketing costs, and telling him this is the price of gasoline you are paying at the pump.
Which means POTUS's team is showing him the cost of *wholesale, unfinished* gasoline, which does not include the cost of oxygenates and all distribution+marketing costs, and telling him this is the price of gasoline you are paying at the pump.
