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Jeff Berardelli

@weatherprof.bsky.social

23K followers 1K following 860 posts

Same @WeatherProf as Twitter. Posting about climate and weather. Chief Meteorologist and Climate Specialist WFLA NBC Tampa

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 8d

Did you know Monster hurricanes generate 1000s of times the energy of the World’s most powerful nuclear bomb?!?
It’s true. But that energy is not wasted. Turns out hurricanes fulfill a vital function helping keep Earth livable. Here’s more… #hurricane #imelda #humberto #science #stem #fyp

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 13h

The jet stream will merge with low pressure over South FL and crank a coastal gale along the Carolina Coast this weekend. That will drive down much drier and even cooler air this weekend. The storm will get stuck for days, meaning the heat relief will last a solid 5+ days deep into next week!

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 13h

“Refreshing” air on the way!Nothing signifies a season change like the first Coastal Storm of fall.
Right now the South is stuck under a heat dome. Another 100 heat index day in FL today! But that’s about come to an end. 1/

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 22h

T.S.#Jerry forms. Forecast to become a #hurricane. No threat to the US.

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 1d

Up. Up. And away!
North Pacific water temps the past 15 years, with September 2025 being the cherry on the top (right) of the chart. @zacklabe.com is going to need a bigger Y axis!

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 1d

Florida, are you ready for some heat relief?!?
While I can’t deliver cool air, “cool-ish” air is on the itinerary! :)
This weekend lows will drop into the 60s in Central FL, with 50s North. Humidity will take a big nose dive. All thanks to an early season Coastal Storm cranking off the Carolinas.

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 1d

2pm Update. No threats to Florida or the US as a whole.
But the northern Leeward Islands need to be on alert for later this week/ weekend.

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 2d

Lastly let’s talk about natural variability. The orientation of ocean surface temps in the Pacific this season certainly has a lot to do with the oscillation. But the spike in temps in recent years is the climate change signal.

Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 2d

Much of this is likely due to the unmasking of global warming from the decrease in aerosol pollution. This allows for more ocean heating from more direct sun getting through and reduction in clouds due to feedbacks. 4/

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 2d

How far “off the charts” is September 2025? Sea surface temps are in this area of the North Pacific. >1.6C or ~3F above normal on average over this huge area.
I’d say even more alarming than the actual anomaly is the trend since 2010. In 15 years the anomaly jumped more than 2F! 3/

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 2d

The dark purple also happens to correspond with areas that have been 5-8C (9 to 14 F) above normal at some point in the past few months. (Luckily there is little coral impacted as this alert level 5 is for surface water north of the coral zone. I imagine it has a big impact on other ocean life). 2/

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 2d

The North Pacific heatwave these past few months has been astonishing. Take a look at the bottom of this image. It’s “accumulated heat stress” from NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch program. Basically the whole north basin registers Alert Level 5, dark purple. 1/

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 3d

I see. Ok. In climate circles we prefer to use the word understand, not believe, because science is not a religion.
So yes I do not like the word believe as it pertains to climate change.

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 3d

Can you explain it to me, then? What am I misinterpreting?
That knowing the consensus only helps “a little”?

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Reposted by Jeff Berardelli

Hannah Daly @hannahdaly.ie · 6d

The best guess of climate experts at this Overshoot Conference is that - in an optimistic scenario - we return to 1.5C (where we are now) in 7 generations time.

That's about the same distance from now as the start of the Industrial Revolution.

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Reposted by Jeff Berardelli

Climate News @climatenews.bsky.social · 4d

New 12 min episode with high quality content about rapid hurricane intensification and its potential causes (AMOC strength, sulphur emissions, climate change).

@leonsimons.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social @weatherprof.bsky.social @bmcnoldy.bsky.social @rahmstorf.bsky.social

Full YouTube episode:

Is the U.S. Playing Russian Roulette with Hurricanes?

YouTube video by PBS Terra

youtu.be

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 4d

if it’s delayed -or- if a piece is left behind, then a track WNW towards the Gulf is possible in about two weeks.
Bottom line: While I can’t tell you exactly how strong and exactly where systems may track, I can give you a general overview of what needs to be watched to elucidate the pattern.

Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 4d

2. Moisture will gather in the Central Caribbean in about 10 days. It will “attempt” to develop. It may or may not happen. At that time a large upper low should be over the Gulf. It should drag any system Northeast. BUT here’s the key…
3/

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 4d

1. A tropical wave near Africa which is likely to form by mid to late week and near the Lesser Antilles next Friday-ish. That will “most likely” be deflected out to sea by west to east steering over Florida/ Bahamas.
2/

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 4d

There’s lots of “rumors” of future tropical storms. It’s probably a bit confusing.
So let’s try to cut through all the tropical “noise” out there.
There are two main things we are watching for the next two weeks…
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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 4d

New study shows people seriously underestimate the degree to which people understand humans are driving climate change. In reality, 71-88% of people get this. But people “feel” it’s much lower. Good News: We are more willing to pitch in when they understand the consensus:
spsp.org/news/charact...

What Most People Get Wrong About Climate Change | SPSP

It’s not the science people doubt—it’s each other.

spsp.org

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 5d

My thoughts on the passing of Jane.

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 6d

A tribute to a real hero, Jane Goodall. I had the chance to meet her twice, once here in Tampa at the Aquarium in 2023. They don’t make ‘em like her anymore. Cheers to you Jane. Thank you for your 91 years of service to humanity! You did good, Jane. #JaneGoodall

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 6d

That means more majors. An Atlantic hurricane today is 2X more likely to become a major hurricane than just a few decades ago. It’s not coincidence, it’s #climatechange

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 6d

RI is increasing due to warming waters. Both the rate of RI and the number of storms to undergo RI are increasing significantly. Despite this season being “quiet” it ties for 2nd on # of storms to undergo RI of 55 mph in 24 hours as per @BhatiaKieran
2/

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 6d

#Humberto is no longer. But it really put on a show! It was the 3rd major, 2nd cat 5 #hurricane of the season, and 3rd one to Rapidly Intensify. That’s an understatement. Actually it underwent “Extreme Rapid Intensification” 80 mph in 24 hours, more than 2X the criteria for RI… 1/

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