WillP
@wiilp.bsky.social
Energy, science, engineering, environment.
Anything in the cavity, apart from the wiring?
That is how we discovered our cavity wall insulation, isn't.
That is how we discovered our cavity wall insulation, isn't.
February 14, 2026 at 2:56 PM
Anything in the cavity, apart from the wiring?
That is how we discovered our cavity wall insulation, isn't.
That is how we discovered our cavity wall insulation, isn't.
General price inflation in the economy after 2022 means £1 is worth 25% less today than it was in 2022, and will be worth even less in 2030.
Bit disingenuous to directly compare energy bills without mentioning this
Bit disingenuous to directly compare energy bills without mentioning this
February 13, 2026 at 11:41 AM
General price inflation in the economy after 2022 means £1 is worth 25% less today than it was in 2022, and will be worth even less in 2030.
Bit disingenuous to directly compare energy bills without mentioning this
Bit disingenuous to directly compare energy bills without mentioning this
Think the October lobbying by several energy companies was an attempt (successful) to push govt to remove levies from electricity and gas bills in the November budget
The Autumn Budget 2025 is out now: here's what it means for your energy bill
Our early read on the 2025 Budget: some policy costs are being removed from bills, ECO scheme scrapped, new tax on EVs and more.
octopus.energy
February 13, 2026 at 11:34 AM
Think the October lobbying by several energy companies was an attempt (successful) to push govt to remove levies from electricity and gas bills in the November budget
A q for a former Met Office person...!
In normal January, Aberdeen has 60 hours sunshine - the same as London
In May, Aberdeen has 200 hours sunshine - also the same as London
Yet Aberdeen has an hour shorter day in winter than London and an hour longer in summer
Hows that happen?
In normal January, Aberdeen has 60 hours sunshine - the same as London
In May, Aberdeen has 200 hours sunshine - also the same as London
Yet Aberdeen has an hour shorter day in winter than London and an hour longer in summer
Hows that happen?
February 12, 2026 at 10:17 PM
A q for a former Met Office person...!
In normal January, Aberdeen has 60 hours sunshine - the same as London
In May, Aberdeen has 200 hours sunshine - also the same as London
Yet Aberdeen has an hour shorter day in winter than London and an hour longer in summer
Hows that happen?
In normal January, Aberdeen has 60 hours sunshine - the same as London
In May, Aberdeen has 200 hours sunshine - also the same as London
Yet Aberdeen has an hour shorter day in winter than London and an hour longer in summer
Hows that happen?
It's as balance, for all the "it snowed half a centimetre in London" articles
February 12, 2026 at 6:40 PM
It's as balance, for all the "it snowed half a centimetre in London" articles
How about goods exports?
Manufacturing emissions in China are partly consumed by population in US, Europe
China goods exports falling as %GDP as refocusing on domestic consumption, and other low cost economies competing to export, and trade barriers
#IDKnotaneconomist
Manufacturing emissions in China are partly consumed by population in US, Europe
China goods exports falling as %GDP as refocusing on domestic consumption, and other low cost economies competing to export, and trade barriers
#IDKnotaneconomist
February 12, 2026 at 11:18 AM
How about goods exports?
Manufacturing emissions in China are partly consumed by population in US, Europe
China goods exports falling as %GDP as refocusing on domestic consumption, and other low cost economies competing to export, and trade barriers
#IDKnotaneconomist
Manufacturing emissions in China are partly consumed by population in US, Europe
China goods exports falling as %GDP as refocusing on domestic consumption, and other low cost economies competing to export, and trade barriers
#IDKnotaneconomist
Is the Chemicals industry growth in China a relocation from other regions?
(eg Mossmorran ethylene cracker closing in Scotland)
So extra chems emissions in China are balanced by savings elsewhere
Unlike say China construction and transport which are not relocation from elsewhere?
(eg Mossmorran ethylene cracker closing in Scotland)
So extra chems emissions in China are balanced by savings elsewhere
Unlike say China construction and transport which are not relocation from elsewhere?
February 12, 2026 at 10:54 AM
Is the Chemicals industry growth in China a relocation from other regions?
(eg Mossmorran ethylene cracker closing in Scotland)
So extra chems emissions in China are balanced by savings elsewhere
Unlike say China construction and transport which are not relocation from elsewhere?
(eg Mossmorran ethylene cracker closing in Scotland)
So extra chems emissions in China are balanced by savings elsewhere
Unlike say China construction and transport which are not relocation from elsewhere?
Yes, Sellafield is a long way West of Bristol!
February 12, 2026 at 9:39 AM
Yes, Sellafield is a long way West of Bristol!
According to the article, yes that is the plan 👍
February 11, 2026 at 2:01 PM
According to the article, yes that is the plan 👍
It is an electricity ring main with Small Modular Reactors built in. That makes all the difference.
www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/riba-...
www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/riba-...
Riba chief proposes £130bn high-speed rail Loop around UK and Ireland inspired by Saudi ‘vision’ | New Civil Engineer
Chris Williamson’s ambitious £130bn proposal would link Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds, Newcastle, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Belfast, Dublin and Bangor in a
www.newcivilengineer.com
February 11, 2026 at 1:53 PM
It is an electricity ring main with Small Modular Reactors built in. That makes all the difference.
www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/riba-...
www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/riba-...
Conversely, NESO repeated a few weeks ago that they "now have all the tools in place" for a zero-gas period and are just waiting for when the market delivers 'the right mix'.
Presumably not just the right mix of clean supply and demand, but also in the right places - less in Scotland or the ICs.
Presumably not just the right mix of clean supply and demand, but also in the right places - less in Scotland or the ICs.
February 11, 2026 at 12:51 PM
Conversely, NESO repeated a few weeks ago that they "now have all the tools in place" for a zero-gas period and are just waiting for when the market delivers 'the right mix'.
Presumably not just the right mix of clean supply and demand, but also in the right places - less in Scotland or the ICs.
Presumably not just the right mix of clean supply and demand, but also in the right places - less in Scotland or the ICs.
The Scottish constraint problem has meant that zero-gas outcomes that were set up by the market, couldn't be delivered by the grid in 2025
If another (say) 3GW of wind/PV were available S of the border, that would solve the problem - maybe in 2026 or 2027?
But that might drive up exports instead
If another (say) 3GW of wind/PV were available S of the border, that would solve the problem - maybe in 2026 or 2027?
But that might drive up exports instead
February 11, 2026 at 10:19 AM
The Scottish constraint problem has meant that zero-gas outcomes that were set up by the market, couldn't be delivered by the grid in 2025
If another (say) 3GW of wind/PV were available S of the border, that would solve the problem - maybe in 2026 or 2027?
But that might drive up exports instead
If another (say) 3GW of wind/PV were available S of the border, that would solve the problem - maybe in 2026 or 2027?
But that might drive up exports instead
Eg these projects, adding grid-forming inverters as cheap upgrades to battery projects in Thurrock and Yorkshire
Three UK BESS assets secure ten-year voltage contracts - Energy Storage
Trio of storage projects in England selected to provide voltage services through tender process. Increased low carbon energy generation and a drop in minimum demand on Great Britain’s grid is driving ...
www.ess-news.com
February 11, 2026 at 10:11 AM
Eg these projects, adding grid-forming inverters as cheap upgrades to battery projects in Thurrock and Yorkshire
NESO's actions were majority £12M due to thermal (capacity) constraint on Scottish boundaries - they won't fix this anytime soon
Minor action £3M due to voltage ref large flow transitting thru S England not - projects ongoing to fix this
Minor action £3M due to voltage ref large flow transitting thru S England not - projects ongoing to fix this
February 11, 2026 at 9:55 AM
NESO's actions were majority £12M due to thermal (capacity) constraint on Scottish boundaries - they won't fix this anytime soon
Minor action £3M due to voltage ref large flow transitting thru S England not - projects ongoing to fix this
Minor action £3M due to voltage ref large flow transitting thru S England not - projects ongoing to fix this
This thread was an example, sunny Sunday lunchtime last May (link goes to short thread)
- DA set up enough renewables to fully cover domestic demand and exports, with zero gas
- in real time, NESO curtailed 3GW Scottish wind and hydro, turned on gas stations S England
Map from Robin Hawkes👌
- DA set up enough renewables to fully cover domestic demand and exports, with zero gas
- in real time, NESO curtailed 3GW Scottish wind and hydro, turned on gas stations S England
Map from Robin Hawkes👌
February 11, 2026 at 9:55 AM
This thread was an example, sunny Sunday lunchtime last May (link goes to short thread)
- DA set up enough renewables to fully cover domestic demand and exports, with zero gas
- in real time, NESO curtailed 3GW Scottish wind and hydro, turned on gas stations S England
Map from Robin Hawkes👌
- DA set up enough renewables to fully cover domestic demand and exports, with zero gas
- in real time, NESO curtailed 3GW Scottish wind and hydro, turned on gas stations S England
Map from Robin Hawkes👌
The Sun shines on the Lake District too..!
This lake is the source of the Manchester drinking water pipeline.
This lake is the source of the Manchester drinking water pipeline.
Part of UK in drought as ‘lost village’ re-emerges… is your area is affected?
MILLIONS of Brits could face water restrictions after a drought was declared in part of the country with the dry conditions seeing a “lost village” re-emerge. The Environment Agency has imposed a d…
www.thesun.co.uk
February 11, 2026 at 8:14 AM
The Sun shines on the Lake District too..!
This lake is the source of the Manchester drinking water pipeline.
This lake is the source of the Manchester drinking water pipeline.
Exports the problem again I think
GB market sets itself up for a zero gas afternoon
The resulting price is rock bottom
All our neighbours buy a big slice of exports from Kent
Scottish renewables can't be delivered down there
Fire up gas in BM to deliver the exports
Repeat many times in 25
GB market sets itself up for a zero gas afternoon
The resulting price is rock bottom
All our neighbours buy a big slice of exports from Kent
Scottish renewables can't be delivered down there
Fire up gas in BM to deliver the exports
Repeat many times in 25
February 10, 2026 at 8:15 PM
Exports the problem again I think
GB market sets itself up for a zero gas afternoon
The resulting price is rock bottom
All our neighbours buy a big slice of exports from Kent
Scottish renewables can't be delivered down there
Fire up gas in BM to deliver the exports
Repeat many times in 25
GB market sets itself up for a zero gas afternoon
The resulting price is rock bottom
All our neighbours buy a big slice of exports from Kent
Scottish renewables can't be delivered down there
Fire up gas in BM to deliver the exports
Repeat many times in 25
Juxtaposition of adverts made me chuckle!
February 10, 2026 at 7:44 PM
Juxtaposition of adverts made me chuckle!
They also hostaged themselves by saying that the dirty 5% will be net exported - would be much easier to allow net imports from clean neighbours No Fr Dk
The Irish supply is difficult too
The next election is before 2030 (perhaps long before then) so Ed won't be around to take the praise/blame.
The Irish supply is difficult too
The next election is before 2030 (perhaps long before then) so Ed won't be around to take the praise/blame.
February 10, 2026 at 7:44 PM
They also hostaged themselves by saying that the dirty 5% will be net exported - would be much easier to allow net imports from clean neighbours No Fr Dk
The Irish supply is difficult too
The next election is before 2030 (perhaps long before then) so Ed won't be around to take the praise/blame.
The Irish supply is difficult too
The next election is before 2030 (perhaps long before then) so Ed won't be around to take the praise/blame.
Nicely written!
Gov have given everyone* the impression that Clean Power means zero gas. There's no way to deliver that in 2030 so they'll be judged to have failed.
*Except for six people who've read the target
That being so, 92% clean in 2032 will be pretty good, even if 95% 2030 is not doable.
Gov have given everyone* the impression that Clean Power means zero gas. There's no way to deliver that in 2030 so they'll be judged to have failed.
*Except for six people who've read the target
That being so, 92% clean in 2032 will be pretty good, even if 95% 2030 is not doable.
February 10, 2026 at 7:44 PM
Nicely written!
Gov have given everyone* the impression that Clean Power means zero gas. There's no way to deliver that in 2030 so they'll be judged to have failed.
*Except for six people who've read the target
That being so, 92% clean in 2032 will be pretty good, even if 95% 2030 is not doable.
Gov have given everyone* the impression that Clean Power means zero gas. There's no way to deliver that in 2030 so they'll be judged to have failed.
*Except for six people who've read the target
That being so, 92% clean in 2032 will be pretty good, even if 95% 2030 is not doable.
The capacity market y+1 covers the (minimal) operating costs of keeping existing gas gens available as backup.
CM can be varied 1 year ahead if necessary to keep more existing plant available, eg if buildout of storage or clean generators runs behind schedule (as is likely eg HPC).
CM can be varied 1 year ahead if necessary to keep more existing plant available, eg if buildout of storage or clean generators runs behind schedule (as is likely eg HPC).
February 10, 2026 at 12:26 PM
The capacity market y+1 covers the (minimal) operating costs of keeping existing gas gens available as backup.
CM can be varied 1 year ahead if necessary to keep more existing plant available, eg if buildout of storage or clean generators runs behind schedule (as is likely eg HPC).
CM can be varied 1 year ahead if necessary to keep more existing plant available, eg if buildout of storage or clean generators runs behind schedule (as is likely eg HPC).
NESO set out their current thinking in the CP2030 report.
As is the case today, some gas power is economic at prevailing load factor, some is economic by selling balancing services in the BM, and some relies on the capacity market to stay available.
As is the case today, some gas power is economic at prevailing load factor, some is economic by selling balancing services in the BM, and some relies on the capacity market to stay available.
February 10, 2026 at 12:26 PM
NESO set out their current thinking in the CP2030 report.
As is the case today, some gas power is economic at prevailing load factor, some is economic by selling balancing services in the BM, and some relies on the capacity market to stay available.
As is the case today, some gas power is economic at prevailing load factor, some is economic by selling balancing services in the BM, and some relies on the capacity market to stay available.
Whenever someone says that the price of gas power will be £x, they need to explain their scenario/s for what the price of gas might be that week!
February 10, 2026 at 12:11 PM
Whenever someone says that the price of gas power will be £x, they need to explain their scenario/s for what the price of gas might be that week!
UK ETS carbon pricing currently adds about £16/MWh to electricity prices from gas stations, but it's very volatile.
February 10, 2026 at 12:04 PM
UK ETS carbon pricing currently adds about £16/MWh to electricity prices from gas stations, but it's very volatile.
If so, I'm mystified why you are talking of long duration blackouts and energy rationing, in four years from now.
Perhaps go back and ask those people again, where the gas fleet will have gone by then?
Perhaps go back and ask those people again, where the gas fleet will have gone by then?
February 10, 2026 at 11:49 AM
If so, I'm mystified why you are talking of long duration blackouts and energy rationing, in four years from now.
Perhaps go back and ask those people again, where the gas fleet will have gone by then?
Perhaps go back and ask those people again, where the gas fleet will have gone by then?