The number of one-off structural changes that disadvantage young people vs their parents at the same age is pretty staggering
January 11, 2026 at 2:44 PM
The number of one-off structural changes that disadvantage young people vs their parents at the same age is pretty staggering
US has strong EM characteristics
Housing, defence, banking all being nudged by US admin to perform acts of service now
Housing, defence, banking all being nudged by US admin to perform acts of service now
January 8, 2026 at 6:41 PM
US has strong EM characteristics
Housing, defence, banking all being nudged by US admin to perform acts of service now
Housing, defence, banking all being nudged by US admin to perform acts of service now
“I think you can 100 percent say A.I. saved their lives,”
Patients had come to the hospital with complaints like bloating or nausea and had not initially seen a pancreatic specialist, Dr. Zhu said. Several of their CT scans had raised no alarms until they were flagged by the A.I. tool.
Patients had come to the hospital with complaints like bloating or nausea and had not initially seen a pancreatic specialist, Dr. Zhu said. Several of their CT scans had raised no alarms until they were flagged by the A.I. tool.
January 4, 2026 at 6:59 PM
“I think you can 100 percent say A.I. saved their lives,”
Patients had come to the hospital with complaints like bloating or nausea and had not initially seen a pancreatic specialist, Dr. Zhu said. Several of their CT scans had raised no alarms until they were flagged by the A.I. tool.
Patients had come to the hospital with complaints like bloating or nausea and had not initially seen a pancreatic specialist, Dr. Zhu said. Several of their CT scans had raised no alarms until they were flagged by the A.I. tool.
Will Venezuelan GDP be higher or lower by 2028?
January 3, 2026 at 10:26 AM
Will Venezuelan GDP be higher or lower by 2028?
One amusing feature of the British public is how violently they oppose the idea of chlorinated chicken
December 29, 2025 at 9:53 PM
One amusing feature of the British public is how violently they oppose the idea of chlorinated chicken
AI lab winner factors:
Pro 'fast-follwers'
- low switching costs so far
- low cost of imitation (IP protection seems moderate given high flows of researchers between labs)
- low certainty of who is the end-consumer
- limited vertical integration (shockingly low given Google, Microsoft in the race)
Pro 'fast-follwers'
- low switching costs so far
- low cost of imitation (IP protection seems moderate given high flows of researchers between labs)
- low certainty of who is the end-consumer
- limited vertical integration (shockingly low given Google, Microsoft in the race)
December 20, 2025 at 11:43 PM
AI lab winner factors:
Pro 'fast-follwers'
- low switching costs so far
- low cost of imitation (IP protection seems moderate given high flows of researchers between labs)
- low certainty of who is the end-consumer
- limited vertical integration (shockingly low given Google, Microsoft in the race)
Pro 'fast-follwers'
- low switching costs so far
- low cost of imitation (IP protection seems moderate given high flows of researchers between labs)
- low certainty of who is the end-consumer
- limited vertical integration (shockingly low given Google, Microsoft in the race)
Since 1960 US recessions have seen gains in education and health services employment in every recession *excluding* 2020.
Manufacturing saw declines in every recession alongside information
www.minneapolisfed.org/research/rec...
Manufacturing saw declines in every recession alongside information
www.minneapolisfed.org/research/rec...
December 20, 2025 at 9:34 PM
Since 1960 US recessions have seen gains in education and health services employment in every recession *excluding* 2020.
Manufacturing saw declines in every recession alongside information
www.minneapolisfed.org/research/rec...
Manufacturing saw declines in every recession alongside information
www.minneapolisfed.org/research/rec...
Trump Tariffs have nearly 100% price pass through
Shipping lags and enforcement gaps result in the paid rate remaining c.50% of the statutory rate
Shipping lags and enforcement gaps result in the paid rate remaining c.50% of the statutory rate
December 20, 2025 at 9:52 AM
Trump Tariffs have nearly 100% price pass through
Shipping lags and enforcement gaps result in the paid rate remaining c.50% of the statutory rate
Shipping lags and enforcement gaps result in the paid rate remaining c.50% of the statutory rate
Short run growth impacts from AI: DM benefit more than EM
Differential growth impacts across countries stem from
differences in sectoral exposures to gen AI, differences in countries’ production
structures and their level of technological readiness
www.bis.org/publ/work132...
Differential growth impacts across countries stem from
differences in sectoral exposures to gen AI, differences in countries’ production
structures and their level of technological readiness
www.bis.org/publ/work132...
December 20, 2025 at 5:02 AM
Short run growth impacts from AI: DM benefit more than EM
Differential growth impacts across countries stem from
differences in sectoral exposures to gen AI, differences in countries’ production
structures and their level of technological readiness
www.bis.org/publ/work132...
Differential growth impacts across countries stem from
differences in sectoral exposures to gen AI, differences in countries’ production
structures and their level of technological readiness
www.bis.org/publ/work132...
China Banks: Industry insiders say banks are rushing to lock in business before Dec. 31 to hit 2025 targets and build momentum for next year.
December 19, 2025 at 12:08 PM
China Banks: Industry insiders say banks are rushing to lock in business before Dec. 31 to hit 2025 targets and build momentum for next year.
UK YIMBY victory in sight
December 16, 2025 at 4:19 PM
UK YIMBY victory in sight
Unemployment now at 5.1% (subject to revisions) up 10bps in three consecutive months and now 20bps above OBR forecast for 4Q25
December 16, 2025 at 7:40 AM
Unemployment now at 5.1% (subject to revisions) up 10bps in three consecutive months and now 20bps above OBR forecast for 4Q25
UK October GDP -0.1% 3m/3m vs est. 0%
December 12, 2025 at 7:02 AM
UK October GDP -0.1% 3m/3m vs est. 0%
Economic dynamism as measured by entry exit rates of businesses and employment in the UK have been flat to down over the last 25y
December 8, 2025 at 10:20 AM
Economic dynamism as measured by entry exit rates of businesses and employment in the UK have been flat to down over the last 25y
Macron:
"This is not at all aggressive or protectionist. The Americans and other players in the North American market do it, the Chinese do it,” the president said. “The major risk for Europeans is accelerated deindustrialisation"
Chart: China trade balance with the EU
"This is not at all aggressive or protectionist. The Americans and other players in the North American market do it, the Chinese do it,” the president said. “The major risk for Europeans is accelerated deindustrialisation"
Chart: China trade balance with the EU
December 8, 2025 at 9:49 AM
Macron:
"This is not at all aggressive or protectionist. The Americans and other players in the North American market do it, the Chinese do it,” the president said. “The major risk for Europeans is accelerated deindustrialisation"
Chart: China trade balance with the EU
"This is not at all aggressive or protectionist. The Americans and other players in the North American market do it, the Chinese do it,” the president said. “The major risk for Europeans is accelerated deindustrialisation"
Chart: China trade balance with the EU
Trump on football (formerly know to Americans as soccer) "We have to come up with another name for the NFL"
December 5, 2025 at 9:02 PM
Trump on football (formerly know to Americans as soccer) "We have to come up with another name for the NFL"
Russia nearly blew up Zelensky over Irish airspace and failed by chance alone:
"The drones reached the flight path of his plane exactly the time it should have been there, but just missed it because Zelensky arrived ahead of schedule"
"The drones reached the flight path of his plane exactly the time it should have been there, but just missed it because Zelensky arrived ahead of schedule"
December 5, 2025 at 11:42 AM
Russia nearly blew up Zelensky over Irish airspace and failed by chance alone:
"The drones reached the flight path of his plane exactly the time it should have been there, but just missed it because Zelensky arrived ahead of schedule"
"The drones reached the flight path of his plane exactly the time it should have been there, but just missed it because Zelensky arrived ahead of schedule"
Oh dear
"until now, at the Spring Statement in March, there was a premature access to that OBR forecast web address, 5 minutes after the Chancellor started giving her Commons speech, but half an hour before normal publication"
"until now, at the Spring Statement in March, there was a premature access to that OBR forecast web address, 5 minutes after the Chancellor started giving her Commons speech, but half an hour before normal publication"
December 1, 2025 at 2:38 PM
Oh dear
"until now, at the Spring Statement in March, there was a premature access to that OBR forecast web address, 5 minutes after the Chancellor started giving her Commons speech, but half an hour before normal publication"
"until now, at the Spring Statement in March, there was a premature access to that OBR forecast web address, 5 minutes after the Chancellor started giving her Commons speech, but half an hour before normal publication"
Starmer says he is “accepting the Fingleton recommendations” and asking the business secretary to extend the lessons to other sectors.
On face value this is extremely good news
On face value this is extremely good news
December 1, 2025 at 12:35 PM
Starmer says he is “accepting the Fingleton recommendations” and asking the business secretary to extend the lessons to other sectors.
On face value this is extremely good news
On face value this is extremely good news
Not ideal
"S&P Global Ratings downgraded Tether's USDT stablecoin to a stability rating of "weak" due to its exposure to high-risk assets, including Bitcoin, and limited disclosure."
"S&P Global Ratings downgraded Tether's USDT stablecoin to a stability rating of "weak" due to its exposure to high-risk assets, including Bitcoin, and limited disclosure."
November 28, 2025 at 8:20 AM
Not ideal
"S&P Global Ratings downgraded Tether's USDT stablecoin to a stability rating of "weak" due to its exposure to high-risk assets, including Bitcoin, and limited disclosure."
"S&P Global Ratings downgraded Tether's USDT stablecoin to a stability rating of "weak" due to its exposure to high-risk assets, including Bitcoin, and limited disclosure."
BoK: recent rises in USDKRW were not driven by interest rate differentials but by retail investors' flows into US equities
November 27, 2025 at 3:06 PM
BoK: recent rises in USDKRW were not driven by interest rate differentials but by retail investors' flows into US equities
Net migration 204k (898k in, 693k out).
Both EU+ and British national groups saw more people leave the UK than arrive, with net migration provisionally estimated at negative 70,000 and negative 109,000, respectively.
Both EU+ and British national groups saw more people leave the UK than arrive, with net migration provisionally estimated at negative 70,000 and negative 109,000, respectively.
November 27, 2025 at 9:58 AM
Net migration 204k (898k in, 693k out).
Both EU+ and British national groups saw more people leave the UK than arrive, with net migration provisionally estimated at negative 70,000 and negative 109,000, respectively.
Both EU+ and British national groups saw more people leave the UK than arrive, with net migration provisionally estimated at negative 70,000 and negative 109,000, respectively.
I'm taking the over on unemployment; under on growth, productivity
November 26, 2025 at 7:23 PM
I'm taking the over on unemployment; under on growth, productivity
UK Government spending narrative violations
November 25, 2025 at 4:46 PM
UK Government spending narrative violations