Alex
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winterfrostwx.bsky.social
Alex
@winterfrostwx.bsky.social
- weather nerd, photographer, aurora chaser
- B.S. Public Health / Microbiology @ University of Nevada, Reno
Holding people accountable is not equivalent to wanting people to starve.
January 16, 2026 at 2:59 AM
So glad it was cool here! Most of the time it is not.
November 1, 2025 at 4:10 PM
I ❤️ mountains
October 30, 2025 at 3:43 PM
I am more inclined to believe the NBM and GEFS over any deterministic model at this time, but confidence remains low and more details will be ironed out as we get closer.

#orwx
January 28, 2025 at 7:16 AM
Ensembles (namely the GEFS/EPS) still have a solid snowfall signal for the lower elevations, but both have low confidence and a wide margin of error.
January 28, 2025 at 7:15 AM
00z GFS has uptrended massively for the latter part of the week but has nearly no snowfall for the lower elevations over the weekend. 00z Euro has a very similar story with little to no snowfall over the weekend-early week but with notable totals after Wednesday; albeit meager compared to the GFS.
January 28, 2025 at 7:14 AM
Firstly, NBM has trended further down to almost nothing in the low elevations for the initial storm system (Sat-Tues) but still has solid snowfall toward the end of the week (Wed-Fri).
#orwx
January 28, 2025 at 7:12 AM
These statistics highlight the importance of climate research and protective climate change policy; especially since the global temperature has increased above the 1.5*C (and 2*C) thresholds.
January 24, 2025 at 12:14 AM
Conversely, the occurrence of cold days (high temp < 32*F) in traditionally cold cities such as NYC and Boston will be on the decline, as well. Even lower emission scenarios show a significant decrease in cold days in both cities by 2080. (3/)
January 24, 2025 at 12:11 AM
Modeled here are projections for Phoenix, AZ (left) and Las Vegas, NV (right) depicting days above 105*F. Historical data is monochrome, while low emission and high emission projections are red and blue, respectively. Even lower emission scenarios show a notable increase in 105F+ days per year. (2/)
January 24, 2025 at 12:08 AM