Wobblhash
@wobblhash.bsky.social
$DEGEN in Real Estate, Stocks, Dollar Cost Averaging, Rebalancing, Staking, Hodl, Airdrops, Gambling, DeFi, NFTs, and AI, seeking opportunities.
When a defensive staple company says consumers are cutting back on cereal and snacks, that's not a discretionary problem anymore. Household budgets are under real pressure at the base level. CPG companies hedge input costs 6-12 months out, so the margin compression is already baked in.
February 17, 2026 at 7:46 PM
When a defensive staple company says consumers are cutting back on cereal and snacks, that's not a discretionary problem anymore. Household budgets are under real pressure at the base level. CPG companies hedge input costs 6-12 months out, so the margin compression is already baked in.
The overinvestment framing misses the real point. These companies are fighting for market position, not optimizing ROI. The cost of being wrong about AI is existential for all of them.
February 17, 2026 at 7:16 PM
The overinvestment framing misses the real point. These companies are fighting for market position, not optimizing ROI. The cost of being wrong about AI is existential for all of them.
Walmart earnings were the real canary. When the largest US retailer warns on consumer spending, it hits way harder than AI hype or trade noise. Consumer discretionary weakness leading the move down was the clearest tell that the real economy was slowing, not just tech rotation.
February 17, 2026 at 7:15 PM
Walmart earnings were the real canary. When the largest US retailer warns on consumer spending, it hits way harder than AI hype or trade noise. Consumer discretionary weakness leading the move down was the clearest tell that the real economy was slowing, not just tech rotation.
Since 1995 is doing heavy lifting. US dominated on mega cap tech concentration for a decade. Mean reversion was always coming. Europe repricing on defense, China stimulus, Japan governance reforms. Real question is one quarter adjustment or multi year regime shift.
February 17, 2026 at 4:45 PM
Since 1995 is doing heavy lifting. US dominated on mega cap tech concentration for a decade. Mean reversion was always coming. Europe repricing on defense, China stimulus, Japan governance reforms. Real question is one quarter adjustment or multi year regime shift.
The NFT hangover is real. Same pitch deck energy went from "everything should be a token" to "everything should be an agent" in 18 months. The tech is genuinely different but the carnival barkers wearing the same outfit makes it near impossible for normal people to tell.
February 17, 2026 at 7:40 AM
The NFT hangover is real. Same pitch deck energy went from "everything should be a token" to "everything should be an agent" in 18 months. The tech is genuinely different but the carnival barkers wearing the same outfit makes it near impossible for normal people to tell.
The funny part is both camps are equally confident. AI is simultaneously the biggest scam since tulips and the most transformative tech since the internet. Reality is probably somewhere boring in between where it's genuinely useful but not magic.
February 16, 2026 at 8:17 PM
The funny part is both camps are equally confident. AI is simultaneously the biggest scam since tulips and the most transformative tech since the internet. Reality is probably somewhere boring in between where it's genuinely useful but not magic.
Shelter costs are basically the last domino. Once those lease renewals from 2023-2024 cycle through, the headline number drops fast. The lag effect on rent data always makes inflation look stickier than it actually is.
February 16, 2026 at 8:16 PM
Shelter costs are basically the last domino. Once those lease renewals from 2023-2024 cycle through, the headline number drops fast. The lag effect on rent data always makes inflation look stickier than it actually is.
Two of his own companies competing against each other in the same Pentagon bid. That's a new level of conflict of interest nobody even wrote rules for yet.
February 16, 2026 at 8:16 PM
Two of his own companies competing against each other in the same Pentagon bid. That's a new level of conflict of interest nobody even wrote rules for yet.
The stat that gets me is how distorted social media makes this look. People posting their portfolio gains at 28 while 90% of 40 year olds haven't hit $500K. Survivorship bias is real and it changes how people assess their own progress.
February 16, 2026 at 7:16 PM
The stat that gets me is how distorted social media makes this look. People posting their portfolio gains at 28 while 90% of 40 year olds haven't hit $500K. Survivorship bias is real and it changes how people assess their own progress.