“A lot” is probably being a bit dramatic. But I think there are still gonna be issues emerging over the year and market has not had much tolerance for this (looking back at ZION/WAL episode in October for example)… think there will be more.

It’s complicated. I don’t necessarily disagree in a vacuum looking ahead, but I think a lot of the loans these guys have on their books still are effed, for lack of a better term, and I’m not sure the going forwards outlook for CRE changes that reality.

How are you thinking about the CRE exposure? Still seems like some pain to take there…

He is so so bad

The thing is, Arsenal *always* choke. City (and admittedly Arsenal) are clearly favourites, but I honestly think any of the current top 5 could easily be contenders, even if some of the them aren’t playing like it right now.

You’re talking about Arsenal, but could just as easily be Liverpool

All actually modestly underperforming NVDA today. Zero sum game probably fine for indexes… negative sum (i.e. NVDA mkt share losses not neatly distributed elsewhere) might not be (and probably a function of concern over how this could all impact OpenAI ecosystem and the flywheel spending).

It was hard to notice given our lead in the league last season, but this collapse in form actually started in March… def has intensified in the last two months though and is getting more painful…

It’s odd, a lot of slop since going to APO. Maybe not that odd when you think about incentives but still, kinda weird to see.

Oh interestingly Coatue put out a chart on this overnight:

Train already left the station. The latter grouping also has some bearing on some other infra names (CRWV, VRT etc.), at least for now. Reminds me *a little* of DeepSeek aftermath. More muted for now but might be more sustainable…

He went through all that trouble, and didn’t quite manage to mention that NVDA was only selling off cos Gemini is crushing it and trained on TPUs. Oops!

Won’t be quite so painfully noticeable, in fairness…

“Hooting first, asking questions later” 🤭

Interesting, live in the Bay Area and the housing market seems red hot, whereas AI increasingly feels like a systemic risk that might be out over its skis. I suspect the former will eventually notice the latter, but housing doesn’t feel like a big negative economic issue locally right now…

But it’s Thursday and tomorrow is Friday. If we see this kind of price action extend tomorrow could be a fun week ahead…

Think this is consistent with the price action and seems like it could be (a) proximate cause

bsky.app/profile/yass...

More n more stuff like popping up

bsky.app/profile/yass...

Century!!