The #uranium demand side has been a cascade of bullish news over the past few years

Meanwhile, the supply side has faced one headwind after another. From the largest producers (as below) in the world to smaller developers, supply disruptions remain widespread.

inbusiness.kz/ru/news/krup...

This is massive for the #nuclear power industry and could usher in a new era of real nuclear growth

"The Trump administration is considering several executive orders aimed at speeding up the construction of nuclear power plants to help meet rising electricity demand"
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/09/c...

It's great to see sentiment improving once again and according to my model, we are entering caution again. There is not a lot of noise yet, despite a solid 32% rally for #uranium stocks, so that's a good sign

That and much more in this week's newsletter report, including two new portfolio positions

Great jump by uranium equities on positive nuclear related news in the US.

Cameco is leading the way and they could stand to benefit greatly from an AP-1000 buildout program in the country.

The call options we bought on the Codex in Q1 have more than doubled 📈 (link in my bio)

After all the macro uncertainty and equity market volatility over the past few months, the term price of #uranium remains unchanged

The long term trajectory remains firmly upward and to the right

In one of the conference calls last year, we saw Cameco showcase their tier 2 production.

That's not the case in the presentation today and it's clear that the current pricing environment is 'not good enough' for those tier 2 assets. This rings true for other companies as well, which mutes supply.

Broad market volatility has had an outsized negative effect on risk-on equities, including various commodities such as #uranium

#Gold and #silver have been doing very well however and have carried the Codex portfolio YTD. We had some big winners, including 130% profit on AG calls. Link in bio ⤵️

The lowest cost quartile of the #uranium production curve is moving up as Kazatomprom's C1 cash costs and AISC numbers are rising. The era of cheap pounds is over and with Kazatomprom reiterating their 'value over volume' strategy, it's clear that the term price trajectory is firmly up.

There have been a lot of questions as to what is driving the broad equities market right now and while it seems chaotic, there is clear logic to the chaos and with that logic we can prepare for the months ahead. In this 5-page Codex update, I cover it in more detail ⤵️
www.patreon.com/posts/124114...

With Trump announcing the possibility of 25% tariffs on the EU, the broad equities market turned down after an initially green day.

This 'tariff tantrum, episode 3' caused uranium equities to drop on all previous occasions, however today those appears to be remarkably resilient.

The expected #uranium production out of #Cameco in 2025 will be 1 million pounds below what was produced in 2024. This decline is attributable to a 1.6 million pound production decrease coming out from McArthur, while Cigar Lake is expected to increase production by 600,000 pounds. Very interesting.

You can delay contracting for #uranium, but you can't avoid it. A replacement rate cycle is coming. UxC reports that over the last 5 years around 534 million pounds U3O8eq have been locked-up in the term market, while around 798 million pounds U3O8eq have been consumed in #nculear reactors

Take a very close look at the chart below. Remember that contracts signed/negotiated for today are for the procurement and subsequent delivery of pounds of #uranium over long periods (10-12 years), meaning that demand in the 2030's is demand that is coming to the table in the near future ⌛️

Every utility is different when it comes to legacy contracts, inventory and demand needs

However, they usually move in something of a cohort. Some come to the table earlier, some are later, but in a replacement rate and inventory restocking cycle, we will see a lot move at once and price will rise.

A large portion of Kazakhstani uranium is already staying in the east, with their two largest neighbors taking the majority of the production

With India's ambitious nuclear power goals, they will need long term security of uranium supply

More pounds will be staying in the east, prepare accordingly

Investor psychology never changes and therefore there are some psychological models that can be applied to investing. We have been in the depression stage for #uranium since late December and we are now entering the final stage, acceptance. Time for a thread on the model and its application🧵