Zachary Leather
@zackleather.resolutionfoundation.org
Climate policy @resfoundation.bsky.social
There's more in the paper on our logic to this and we're always happy to discuss!
February 3, 2026 at 4:34 PM
There's more in the paper on our logic to this and we're always happy to discuss!
Against this, there are lots of reasons to think that subsidy is an inefficient way forward for food - costs could mount to get farmers onside and there's few market mechanisms to innovate costs down in a subsidy-only approach. And ultimately taxpayers are also food shoppers.
February 3, 2026 at 4:34 PM
Against this, there are lots of reasons to think that subsidy is an inefficient way forward for food - costs could mount to get farmers onside and there's few market mechanisms to innovate costs down in a subsidy-only approach. And ultimately taxpayers are also food shoppers.
Simon is right that this is a price level effect, not annual inflation - if you managed to smooth our central estimate of 0.5% over 25 years of transition that's just 0.02% on annual inflation! Much of this will kick in way into the future - this is a long transition we're only just beginning
February 3, 2026 at 4:34 PM
Simon is right that this is a price level effect, not annual inflation - if you managed to smooth our central estimate of 0.5% over 25 years of transition that's just 0.02% on annual inflation! Much of this will kick in way into the future - this is a long transition we're only just beginning
We also need to protect tenant farmers, who don't get to make their own decisions on how land is used. They're some of the nations best but most vulnerable farmers.
A fair transition can't sweep away productive tenants in favour of passive landlord income.
A fair transition can't sweep away productive tenants in favour of passive landlord income.
February 3, 2026 at 3:41 PM
We also need to protect tenant farmers, who don't get to make their own decisions on how land is used. They're some of the nations best but most vulnerable farmers.
A fair transition can't sweep away productive tenants in favour of passive landlord income.
A fair transition can't sweep away productive tenants in favour of passive landlord income.
But many farmers reject this not because the money's bad, but because it's not what they're in the profession to do. If we also care about the right land changing use, then subsidy should go along with tougher measures to guide land use decisions. One for the upcoming land use framework.
February 3, 2026 at 3:41 PM
But many farmers reject this not because the money's bad, but because it's not what they're in the profession to do. If we also care about the right land changing use, then subsidy should go along with tougher measures to guide land use decisions. One for the upcoming land use framework.
Land use is a different challenge. Nearly a fifth of farmland may need to shift away from food - mostly to forestry and restored peatlands (solar and energy crops will play a much smaller role)
February 3, 2026 at 3:41 PM
Land use is a different challenge. Nearly a fifth of farmland may need to shift away from food - mostly to forestry and restored peatlands (solar and energy crops will play a much smaller role)
A mandate requiring supermarkets to source growing proportions of their food from farms meeting low-carbon standards would shift costs to where they can be absorbed - without crushing farmers or relying on inefficient subsidies.
February 3, 2026 at 3:41 PM
A mandate requiring supermarkets to source growing proportions of their food from farms meeting low-carbon standards would shift costs to where they can be absorbed - without crushing farmers or relying on inefficient subsidies.
So what to do? Our favoured approach is to regulate the supply chain. We should be thinking more about how to shift the regulatory burden to bigger actors like supermarkets, who are well placed to tackle these issues while keeping costs down.
February 3, 2026 at 3:41 PM
So what to do? Our favoured approach is to regulate the supply chain. We should be thinking more about how to shift the regulatory burden to bigger actors like supermarkets, who are well placed to tackle these issues while keeping costs down.
The bad news: farmers can't absorb these costs. With razor-thin margins, even a 2.5% cost increase would cut average farm income by a fifth - from £43k to £35k.
Farmers have almost no pricing power, so they can't just pass costs to supermarkets.
Farmers have almost no pricing power, so they can't just pass costs to supermarkets.
February 3, 2026 at 3:41 PM
The bad news: farmers can't absorb these costs. With razor-thin margins, even a 2.5% cost increase would cut average farm income by a fifth - from £43k to £35k.
Farmers have almost no pricing power, so they can't just pass costs to supermarkets.
Farmers have almost no pricing power, so they can't just pass costs to supermarkets.
The good news: decarbonising food production shouldn't be ruinously expensive. Costs peak at ~2.5% of farm output. If passed to consumers, food prices would rise by comfortably less than 1% - some individual months last year saw bigger jumps.
February 3, 2026 at 3:41 PM
The good news: decarbonising food production shouldn't be ruinously expensive. Costs peak at ~2.5% of farm output. If passed to consumers, food prices would rise by comfortably less than 1% - some individual months last year saw bigger jumps.
The sector isn't starting from a position of strength to deal well with further burdens. In 2024, the typical family farm made enough profit to pay its owners just £6/hour - half the minimum wage.
Nearly 1 in 3 farms lost money. Another quarter were only profitable because of government subsidies.
Nearly 1 in 3 farms lost money. Another quarter were only profitable because of government subsidies.
February 3, 2026 at 3:41 PM
The sector isn't starting from a position of strength to deal well with further burdens. In 2024, the typical family farm made enough profit to pay its owners just £6/hour - half the minimum wage.
Nearly 1 in 3 farms lost money. Another quarter were only profitable because of government subsidies.
Nearly 1 in 3 farms lost money. Another quarter were only profitable because of government subsidies.
There's no silver bullet here. Unlike EVs for transport or heat pumps for homes, farming needs 30+ different measures to decarbonise - from greener machinery to changing what land is used for entirely.
And this comes on top of nature targets and major subsidy reforms already underway.
And this comes on top of nature targets and major subsidy reforms already underway.
February 3, 2026 at 3:41 PM
There's no silver bullet here. Unlike EVs for transport or heat pumps for homes, farming needs 30+ different measures to decarbonise - from greener machinery to changing what land is used for entirely.
And this comes on top of nature targets and major subsidy reforms already underway.
And this comes on top of nature targets and major subsidy reforms already underway.
The transition hasn't really hit UK farms yet, with emissions declining just 5% since 2010. That's set to change soon, and it should - delaying further would add £12 billion to the capital cost of meeting net zero
February 3, 2026 at 3:41 PM
The transition hasn't really hit UK farms yet, with emissions declining just 5% since 2010. That's set to change soon, and it should - delaying further would add £12 billion to the capital cost of meeting net zero
Yes there'll be a recording in the same link after the fact, and the report will be up on our website tomorrow
February 2, 2026 at 4:40 PM
Yes there'll be a recording in the same link after the fact, and the report will be up on our website tomorrow
More on our calls for better means testing of heat pump subsidies and leaning more on regulations to drive demand here
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
Turning up the heat • Resolution Foundation
Decarbonising home heating is one of the knottiest parts of the net zero transition, with big implications on families’ finances and behaviour. This report examines progress so far and discusses what ...
www.resolutionfoundation.org
November 14, 2025 at 2:58 PM
More on our calls for better means testing of heat pump subsidies and leaning more on regulations to drive demand here
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
May be other factors but a) SW is bigger than the other regions b) the farms there are smaller so more of them
November 13, 2025 at 10:15 AM
May be other factors but a) SW is bigger than the other regions b) the farms there are smaller so more of them
One of the only books ever to be belatedly endorsed by the Resolution Foundation in our 'reads of the summer' 2025
www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/bigg...
www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/bigg...
Bigger states, better captains and stronger safety nets • Resolution Foundation
Morning all, Imagine having a team of people who can pretty much draw any chart you can dream up? I know, I’m incredibly lucky. But who knew they were so well read? When I asked the Resolution crew wh...
www.resolutionfoundation.org
November 12, 2025 at 5:50 PM
One of the only books ever to be belatedly endorsed by the Resolution Foundation in our 'reads of the summer' 2025
www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/bigg...
www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/bigg...
Frustratingly, the Gov didn't give us a breakdown of emissions by sector. That makes it very hard to see how this Gov is approaching the tough trade offs between faster/ slower decarbonisation across sectors. As delivering net zero gets harder for households, a bit more transparency would be nice!
October 30, 2025 at 12:19 PM
Frustratingly, the Gov didn't give us a breakdown of emissions by sector. That makes it very hard to see how this Gov is approaching the tough trade offs between faster/ slower decarbonisation across sectors. As delivering net zero gets harder for households, a bit more transparency would be nice!
There's some hints on homes policy we'll be hearing more about soon - in line with its "incentives based" approach, big subsidy schemes are here to stay, savings from regulations are weaker than 2023 and cheaper electricity for heat pumps isn't dead yet (more detail here bsky.app/profile/mash...)
DESNZ have just published the "Carbon budget and growth delivery plan". Let's have a look at what it says about heat and buildings.
www.gov.uk/government/p...
www.gov.uk/government/p...
Carbon budget and growth delivery plan
The Carbon Budget and Growth Delivery Plan sets out how the government meets its statutory carbon budgets and secure the benefits of this transition for people and businesses.
www.gov.uk
October 30, 2025 at 12:19 PM
There's some hints on homes policy we'll be hearing more about soon - in line with its "incentives based" approach, big subsidy schemes are here to stay, savings from regulations are weaker than 2023 and cheaper electricity for heat pumps isn't dead yet (more detail here bsky.app/profile/mash...)
There's some chunky targets behind that - not least a clear sign that ambition on heat pumps hasn't dimmed. This Gov wants two million heat pumps to be installed between 2026 and 2030, an average of 400k a year. Last year we managed a quarter of that. As we've set out before, that's a big challenge
Turning up the heat • Resolution Foundation
Decarbonising home heating is one of the knottiest parts of the net zero transition, with big implications on families’ finances and behaviour. This report examines progress so far and discusses what ...
www.resolutionfoundation.org
October 30, 2025 at 12:19 PM
There's some chunky targets behind that - not least a clear sign that ambition on heat pumps hasn't dimmed. This Gov wants two million heat pumps to be installed between 2026 and 2030, an average of 400k a year. Last year we managed a quarter of that. As we've set out before, that's a big challenge