ZeGoodTrader
@zegoodtrader.bsky.social
20yr Trader, Credit & Macro PM 📚 ex-GS, UBS, BNP, I like to analyze research and help you navigate markets to get your P&L up 📈
#Markets #Rates #FX #Equities
#Markets #Rates #FX #Equities
Je veux bien et ca s’entend mais comment tu justifies 35% du pays qui votent pour eux et >50% dans les sondages en cas de second tour ?
February 11, 2026 at 2:21 PM
Je veux bien et ca s’entend mais comment tu justifies 35% du pays qui votent pour eux et >50% dans les sondages en cas de second tour ?
Tu m’étonnes, en même temps travailler c’est relou hein 😂
February 11, 2026 at 2:17 PM
Tu m’étonnes, en même temps travailler c’est relou hein 😂
Credit holding tight because:
✅ Global growth healthy
✅ Inflation under control
✅ Narrow range of economic outcomes
✅ Cash on sidelines (not crowded despite tight levels) - chart
✅ Defensive positioning
✅ Growth of fixed-maturity products = more overlap with rates investors
✅ Global growth healthy
✅ Inflation under control
✅ Narrow range of economic outcomes
✅ Cash on sidelines (not crowded despite tight levels) - chart
✅ Defensive positioning
✅ Growth of fixed-maturity products = more overlap with rates investors
February 10, 2026 at 7:30 AM
Credit holding tight because:
✅ Global growth healthy
✅ Inflation under control
✅ Narrow range of economic outcomes
✅ Cash on sidelines (not crowded despite tight levels) - chart
✅ Defensive positioning
✅ Growth of fixed-maturity products = more overlap with rates investors
✅ Global growth healthy
✅ Inflation under control
✅ Narrow range of economic outcomes
✅ Cash on sidelines (not crowded despite tight levels) - chart
✅ Defensive positioning
✅ Growth of fixed-maturity products = more overlap with rates investors
Why is credit so resilient? 🤔
Credit now trades like a RATES volatility product, not a risk volatility product
• VSTOXX equity vol at 3-month high (20pts) = used to predict spreads pre-pandemic
• MOVE rates vol at multi-year lows = NOW the better predictor
Credit now trades like a RATES volatility product, not a risk volatility product
• VSTOXX equity vol at 3-month high (20pts) = used to predict spreads pre-pandemic
• MOVE rates vol at multi-year lows = NOW the better predictor
February 10, 2026 at 7:30 AM
Why is credit so resilient? 🤔
Credit now trades like a RATES volatility product, not a risk volatility product
• VSTOXX equity vol at 3-month high (20pts) = used to predict spreads pre-pandemic
• MOVE rates vol at multi-year lows = NOW the better predictor
Credit now trades like a RATES volatility product, not a risk volatility product
• VSTOXX equity vol at 3-month high (20pts) = used to predict spreads pre-pandemic
• MOVE rates vol at multi-year lows = NOW the better predictor
/5 Follow me @ZegoodBanker for more on Credit IG & HY, Rates and across Financial Markets !
Like/Repost the quote below if you can:
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February 8, 2026 at 6:44 PM
/5 Follow me @ZegoodBanker for more on Credit IG & HY, Rates and across Financial Markets !
Like/Repost the quote below if you can:
Like/Repost the quote below if you can:
/4 But WHERE are German credits still CHEAP?
Imo, German credits look wide vs French in those sectors
• Utilities
• Telecoms
• Insurance
As German fiscal stimulus materializes, these sectors look like the best opportunities
#Germany #EURCredit #CorporateBonds #HighYield
Imo, German credits look wide vs French in those sectors
• Utilities
• Telecoms
• Insurance
As German fiscal stimulus materializes, these sectors look like the best opportunities
#Germany #EURCredit #CorporateBonds #HighYield
February 8, 2026 at 6:44 PM
/4 But WHERE are German credits still CHEAP?
Imo, German credits look wide vs French in those sectors
• Utilities
• Telecoms
• Insurance
As German fiscal stimulus materializes, these sectors look like the best opportunities
#Germany #EURCredit #CorporateBonds #HighYield
Imo, German credits look wide vs French in those sectors
• Utilities
• Telecoms
• Insurance
As German fiscal stimulus materializes, these sectors look like the best opportunities
#Germany #EURCredit #CorporateBonds #HighYield
/3 🇩🇪 GERMAN STIMULUS: On-the-ground signs improving
3m % change in German domestic manufacturing orders = SURGING
Lagarde highlighted domestic economy strength, especially investment
As fiscal stimulus data arrives, tailwinds build for German credit
#GermanStimulus #Lagarde #ECB
3m % change in German domestic manufacturing orders = SURGING
Lagarde highlighted domestic economy strength, especially investment
As fiscal stimulus data arrives, tailwinds build for German credit
#GermanStimulus #Lagarde #ECB
February 8, 2026 at 6:44 PM
/3 🇩🇪 GERMAN STIMULUS: On-the-ground signs improving
3m % change in German domestic manufacturing orders = SURGING
Lagarde highlighted domestic economy strength, especially investment
As fiscal stimulus data arrives, tailwinds build for German credit
#GermanStimulus #Lagarde #ECB
3m % change in German domestic manufacturing orders = SURGING
Lagarde highlighted domestic economy strength, especially investment
As fiscal stimulus data arrives, tailwinds build for German credit
#GermanStimulus #Lagarde #ECB
/2 ↑ A Steep curves means = plentiful retail demand for fixed-maturity credit funds!
📉 With credit cycle looking weak in Europe (ECB Bank Lending Survey shows tighter corporate lending), this backdrop persists
📅 Most economists expect next ECB cuts in Mar & Jun 2027 due to inflation undershoot
📉 With credit cycle looking weak in Europe (ECB Bank Lending Survey shows tighter corporate lending), this backdrop persists
📅 Most economists expect next ECB cuts in Mar & Jun 2027 due to inflation undershoot
February 8, 2026 at 6:44 PM
/2 ↑ A Steep curves means = plentiful retail demand for fixed-maturity credit funds!
📉 With credit cycle looking weak in Europe (ECB Bank Lending Survey shows tighter corporate lending), this backdrop persists
📅 Most economists expect next ECB cuts in Mar & Jun 2027 due to inflation undershoot
📉 With credit cycle looking weak in Europe (ECB Bank Lending Survey shows tighter corporate lending), this backdrop persists
📅 Most economists expect next ECB cuts in Mar & Jun 2027 due to inflation undershoot
EUR software loans down -3.2pts YTD
But the loan market EX-software only down 0.6pt
Software stress NOT feeding into broader EUR loan market (yet)
Also: distress in EUR loans (5%) now close to exceeding EUR HY bonds distress. Last time this happened = Nov 2020
But the loan market EX-software only down 0.6pt
Software stress NOT feeding into broader EUR loan market (yet)
Also: distress in EUR loans (5%) now close to exceeding EUR HY bonds distress. Last time this happened = Nov 2020
February 7, 2026 at 11:32 AM
EUR software loans down -3.2pts YTD
But the loan market EX-software only down 0.6pt
Software stress NOT feeding into broader EUR loan market (yet)
Also: distress in EUR loans (5%) now close to exceeding EUR HY bonds distress. Last time this happened = Nov 2020
But the loan market EX-software only down 0.6pt
Software stress NOT feeding into broader EUR loan market (yet)
Also: distress in EUR loans (5%) now close to exceeding EUR HY bonds distress. Last time this happened = Nov 2020
EUR credit software exposure:
🟢 EUR IG: 2%
🟡 EUR HY: 2%
🔴 EUR Loans: 7% (most exposed)
vs US markets:
🔴 US IG: 4%
🔴 US HY: 12%
🔴 US Loans: 7%
EUR credit has WAY less software exposure than US = more insulated from AI disruption
🟢 EUR IG: 2%
🟡 EUR HY: 2%
🔴 EUR Loans: 7% (most exposed)
vs US markets:
🔴 US IG: 4%
🔴 US HY: 12%
🔴 US Loans: 7%
EUR credit has WAY less software exposure than US = more insulated from AI disruption
February 7, 2026 at 11:32 AM
EUR credit software exposure:
🟢 EUR IG: 2%
🟡 EUR HY: 2%
🔴 EUR Loans: 7% (most exposed)
vs US markets:
🔴 US IG: 4%
🔴 US HY: 12%
🔴 US Loans: 7%
EUR credit has WAY less software exposure than US = more insulated from AI disruption
🟢 EUR IG: 2%
🟡 EUR HY: 2%
🔴 EUR Loans: 7% (most exposed)
vs US markets:
🔴 US IG: 4%
🔴 US HY: 12%
🔴 US Loans: 7%
EUR credit has WAY less software exposure than US = more insulated from AI disruption
The AI disruption paradox:
If AI is about to disrupt huge swathes of the market, hyperscaler & semiconductor stocks should be SUPPORTED
But both are falling now
More likely: AI disruption weighs INTERMITTENTLY on markets, not all at once
DeepSeek Jan '25 = proof markets bounce back
If AI is about to disrupt huge swathes of the market, hyperscaler & semiconductor stocks should be SUPPORTED
But both are falling now
More likely: AI disruption weighs INTERMITTENTLY on markets, not all at once
DeepSeek Jan '25 = proof markets bounce back
February 7, 2026 at 8:30 AM
The AI disruption paradox:
If AI is about to disrupt huge swathes of the market, hyperscaler & semiconductor stocks should be SUPPORTED
But both are falling now
More likely: AI disruption weighs INTERMITTENTLY on markets, not all at once
DeepSeek Jan '25 = proof markets bounce back
If AI is about to disrupt huge swathes of the market, hyperscaler & semiconductor stocks should be SUPPORTED
But both are falling now
More likely: AI disruption weighs INTERMITTENTLY on markets, not all at once
DeepSeek Jan '25 = proof markets bounce back