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Reposted by Thomas Zeitzoff

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 2d

My new op-ed with @lkfazio.bsky.social:

Trump sent a 'compact' to our universities. They should reject this devil's bargain.
Any institution that yields to these broad and intrusive demands would forever be subservient to the whims of the government.
www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnb...

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Reposted by Thomas Zeitzoff

Xu Xu @xuxupolitics.bsky.social · 2d

Why do authoritarian states charge political opponents with non-political crimes? In our @thejop.bsky.social paper with Jennifer Pan & @yiqingxu.bsky.social, we examine how *Disguised Repression* undermines opponents’ moral authority and mobilization capacity. doi.org/10.1086/7342...

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Reposted by Thomas Zeitzoff

Meredith Conroy @meredithconroy.bsky.social · 4d

Democrats and Republicans distrust mass media for different reasons. For the GOP, hating the media is an in-group identity signal. The media is part of "the establishment," so they hate them.

Still, the dip in younger Dems trust in media is important to watch, too.

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 4d

Really striking data point from @gelliottmorris.com on Substack

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Reposted by Thomas Zeitzoff

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 7d

🚨 New Bright Line Watch report on state of US democracy
brightlinewatch.org/violence-red...

-Expert ratings ~= since April but ↓ substantially since January
-US now most closely resembles an illiberal democracy
-Partisan gap in democracy ratings highest since 2017

Full thread of results below

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Reposted by Thomas Zeitzoff

Risa Brooks @risabrooks12.bsky.social · 8d

It's easy to see this speech as just weirdly performative, but there's a lot more—and a lot worse—going on here.

The meeting & speeches are part of a larger project aimed at promoting the military leadership’s partisan alignment with the administration.

How? 1/

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 8d

Hegseth: "If the words I'm speaking today are making your heart sink, they you should do the honorable thing and resign."

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Reposted by Thomas Zeitzoff

Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 10d

Kept thinking about the debate between Klein and Coates and wrote down some thoughts.

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Reposted by Thomas Zeitzoff

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 11d

No one outside the U.S. is confused and no one here would be confused if they saw this happening in another country.

Bill Kristol @billkristolbulwark.bsky.social · 11d

Hegseth fires general officers and JAGs, cracks down on dissenting views in military, orders killing civilians at sea without legal rationale, calls generals to Quantico to demand loyalty.

Trump deploys troops to U.S. cities.

"What are Trump and Hegseth up to? It's a mystery!"

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Reposted by Thomas Zeitzoff

tim frye @timfrye.bsky.social · 11d

So many echoes from this article for US politics....

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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 12d

"for now, we’re stuck in a ratchet, where violent losers copy one another, and their deeds become an excuse to oppress the rest of us."

Michelle Goldberg @michellegoldberg.bsky.social · 12d

www.nytimes.com/2025/09/26/o...

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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 13d

Two things are true:

1. Trump has amassed extraordinary power in the presidency—thanks to a compliant Congress and a pro-executive Supreme Court.

2. Trump is increasingly unpopular.

These twin dynamics will define U.S. politics through the 2026 midterms.

Buckle up.

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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 16d

L’shanah tova!

🍎 🍯

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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 18d

Just awful

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Reposted by Thomas Zeitzoff

PBS News @pbsnews.org · 20d

“What we’re seeing is an unprecedented attempt to silence disfavored speech by the government,” said Brendan Nyhan, a political scientist at Dartmouth College. “Donald Trump is trying to dictate what Americans can say.” https://to.pbs.org/46AYg7U

Trump's moves against media outlets mirror authoritarian approaches to silencing dissent

Since taking office in January, President Donald Trump has waged an aggressive campaign against the media unlike any in modern U.S. history, making moves similar to those of authoritarian leaders that...

to.pbs.org

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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 22d

Watching too—Redford, Akroyd, Phoenix, Strathairn, McDonnell, Kingsley, and Earl Jones. The cast is 🔥

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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 22d

Two things to add to this:

1) I am much more concerned with party elites and leaders encouraging and stoking violence than shifts in the public from vaguely worded questions.

2) These public shifts in support for violence are almost always downstream of elite rhetoric and narratives.

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 22d

These estimates of public support for violence (from www.nytimes.com/2025/09/16/o...) are inflated - *much* higher than what we and others have found using question wording that reduces acquiescence bias: brightlinewatch.org/accelerated-... The vast majority of Americans reject political violence.

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Reposted by Thomas Zeitzoff

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 22d

These estimates of public support for violence (from www.nytimes.com/2025/09/16/o...) are inflated - *much* higher than what we and others have found using question wording that reduces acquiescence bias: brightlinewatch.org/accelerated-... The vast majority of Americans reject political violence.

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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 24d

Really good points. I’m also curious how much of this stems from:

1) The long-running goal of the conservative movement to work the refs (journalists) via accusations of left-wing bias.

VS.

2) More recent polarization by education.

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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 24d

Thanks to the folks at APSA for organizing a great conference, and Vancouver for being a great host city!

cc @janzilinsky.bsky.social

Award from the ITP section for my paper with Jan Zilinsky

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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 25d

True! I just wanted to get a sense of the trends in assassinations over time.

But our gun ownership rate is total outlier. H/T @garciaponce.bsky.social

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimat...

Gun ownership firearms per hundred people. US by far has the most with 120.5 and is 2x the next country.

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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 26d

In contrast, President Trump has blamed the "radical left" for Kirk's assassination and vowed to "beat the hell out of them" (www.politico.com/news/2025/09...).

His supporters have taken note and have vowed revenge (www.reuters.com/world/us/rig...).

The U.S. is in a dangerous place.

Politico headline of Trump saying "beat the hell" out of the radical left

Reuters headline: right-wing anger surges as Kirk's killing fuels calls for vengeance.

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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 26d

Finally, as I found in research my on nasty politics, elite rhetoric matters—especially from national leaders.

Republican Governor of Utah, Spencer Cox, has sought to reduce the political temperature following the assassination of Charlie Kirk. www.axios.com/local/salt-l...

Axios article headline about Spencer Cox taking a quieter approach

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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 26d

The U.S. stands out not just for its polarized politics, but for its gun culture. The U.S. has far more guns than any other country.

That means it's much easier for alienated and aggrieved individuals to take violent action.

www.vox.com/policy-and-p...

America’s gun violence epidemic, in one chart

The US has lots of gun violence. It also has lots of guns.

www.vox.com

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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 26d

But we shouldn’t take too much solace. Law enforcement is better at preventing attacks (www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...)

And modern trauma care saves lives. Gabby Giffords survived an assassination attempt that likely would have been fatal a century ago (www.politico.com/story/2011/0...)

Young intern saved Giffords's life

The 20-year-old intern for Rep. Giffords rushed to stop the bleeding moments after she had been shot.

www.politico.com

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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 26d

Assassinations peaked after the Civil War in the late 19th century, and again in the 1960s-1970s.

There’s been a recent uptick, but it’s still below the 1970s peak.

Data on U.S. assassinations showing a peak post-Civil War and another peak in the 1960s and 1970s

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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 26d

To show this, I built off this list from Wikipedia (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of... compiled assassinations of U.S. politicians (local, state, federal, judges, etc.).

I documented 53 assassinations between 1815–2025.

*Note: This only includes politicians, not activists, and excludes ambassadors.

en.wikipedia.org

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