US just crossed 100% debt-to-GDP. Japan sits at 230%
difference: Japan had 88% domestic creditors, trade surplus, social cohesion
the US has the reserve currency. more rope, but also more to lose
difference: Japan had 88% domestic creditors, trade surplus, social cohesion
the US has the reserve currency. more rope, but also more to lose
February 1, 2026 at 3:33 PM
US just crossed 100% debt-to-GDP. Japan sits at 230%
difference: Japan had 88% domestic creditors, trade surplus, social cohesion
the US has the reserve currency. more rope, but also more to lose
difference: Japan had 88% domestic creditors, trade surplus, social cohesion
the US has the reserve currency. more rope, but also more to lose
now looking east over the pacific
$970B in interest last year — 19% of federal revenue
heading to $1.8T by 2035
when debt service exceeds defense spending, the political calculus changes
$970B in interest last year — 19% of federal revenue
heading to $1.8T by 2035
when debt service exceeds defense spending, the political calculus changes
February 1, 2026 at 3:33 PM
now looking east over the pacific
$970B in interest last year — 19% of federal revenue
heading to $1.8T by 2035
when debt service exceeds defense spending, the political calculus changes
$970B in interest last year — 19% of federal revenue
heading to $1.8T by 2035
when debt service exceeds defense spending, the political calculus changes
yield curve control 2016-2024:
cap 10-year rates at 0%
buy unlimited bonds to defend it
interest burden: 3% → 0.08% of revenue
yen: cut in half
correlation between debt and currency: r = -0.64
cap 10-year rates at 0%
buy unlimited bonds to defend it
interest burden: 3% → 0.08% of revenue
yen: cut in half
correlation between debt and currency: r = -0.64
February 1, 2026 at 3:33 PM
yield curve control 2016-2024:
cap 10-year rates at 0%
buy unlimited bonds to defend it
interest burden: 3% → 0.08% of revenue
yen: cut in half
correlation between debt and currency: r = -0.64
cap 10-year rates at 0%
buy unlimited bonds to defend it
interest burden: 3% → 0.08% of revenue
yen: cut in half
correlation between debt and currency: r = -0.64
This kind of outrages honesty!!
Noam Shazeer in GLU Variants Improve Transformer (arxiv.org/abs/2002.052...)
Noam Shazeer in GLU Variants Improve Transformer (arxiv.org/abs/2002.052...)
February 1, 2026 at 2:18 PM
This kind of outrages honesty!!
Noam Shazeer in GLU Variants Improve Transformer (arxiv.org/abs/2002.052...)
Noam Shazeer in GLU Variants Improve Transformer (arxiv.org/abs/2002.052...)
NFT volume by blockchain, Jan 2026:
Ethereum: $27M
Bitcoin: $7.7M
Everyone else: fighting for scraps
Solana "surged 76%" on a base of $3.1M.
Ethereum: $27M
Bitcoin: $7.7M
Everyone else: fighting for scraps
Solana "surged 76%" on a base of $3.1M.
February 1, 2026 at 2:06 PM
NFT volume by blockchain, Jan 2026:
Ethereum: $27M
Bitcoin: $7.7M
Everyone else: fighting for scraps
Solana "surged 76%" on a base of $3.1M.
Ethereum: $27M
Bitcoin: $7.7M
Everyone else: fighting for scraps
Solana "surged 76%" on a base of $3.1M.
NFT market cap hit $3.3B this week. It's still 85% below the 2021 peak. The 30% weekly "jump" is just noise inside a range it's been stuck in for ~two years
February 1, 2026 at 2:06 PM
NFT market cap hit $3.3B this week. It's still 85% below the 2021 peak. The 30% weekly "jump" is just noise inside a range it's been stuck in for ~two years
"i function fine on 6 hours" is the cognitive equivalent of "i drive better drunk"
Study found that after 4 days of 6h sleep you stop feeling more tired but your brain keeps getting dumber for another 10 days
you're basically too tired to notice you're tired
Study found that after 4 days of 6h sleep you stop feeling more tired but your brain keeps getting dumber for another 10 days
you're basically too tired to notice you're tired
January 31, 2026 at 7:18 PM
"i function fine on 6 hours" is the cognitive equivalent of "i drive better drunk"
Study found that after 4 days of 6h sleep you stop feeling more tired but your brain keeps getting dumber for another 10 days
you're basically too tired to notice you're tired
Study found that after 4 days of 6h sleep you stop feeling more tired but your brain keeps getting dumber for another 10 days
you're basically too tired to notice you're tired
Hang them in the Louvre next to the legendary wework earnings slide deck. (November 2019 by Softbank Group CEO Masayoshi Son)
January 31, 2026 at 7:01 PM
Hang them in the Louvre next to the legendary wework earnings slide deck. (November 2019 by Softbank Group CEO Masayoshi Son)
These 2020 ARK Invest slides live rent free in my head
January 31, 2026 at 7:01 PM
These 2020 ARK Invest slides live rent free in my head
Unreal how much time I lately spent creating dishes with Nano Banana Pro
January 31, 2026 at 4:33 PM
Unreal how much time I lately spent creating dishes with Nano Banana Pro
Since 2014, Bitcoin has had exactly zero moves exceeding 31%.
The only larger BTC move ever: March 12, 2020 (-37.2%).
The asset regulators call "too volatile" has been more stable than silver this week.
The only larger BTC move ever: March 12, 2020 (-37.2%).
The asset regulators call "too volatile" has been more stable than silver this week.
January 31, 2026 at 10:45 AM
Since 2014, Bitcoin has had exactly zero moves exceeding 31%.
The only larger BTC move ever: March 12, 2020 (-37.2%).
The asset regulators call "too volatile" has been more stable than silver this week.
The only larger BTC move ever: March 12, 2020 (-37.2%).
The asset regulators call "too volatile" has been more stable than silver this week.
25 years of silver data. 6,379 trading days.
Yesterday was the single largest decline ever recorded. Nearly double the 2011 crash. Larger than 2008. Larger than COVID.
Yesterday was the single largest decline ever recorded. Nearly double the 2011 crash. Larger than 2008. Larger than COVID.
January 31, 2026 at 10:44 AM
25 years of silver data. 6,379 trading days.
Yesterday was the single largest decline ever recorded. Nearly double the 2011 crash. Larger than 2008. Larger than COVID.
Yesterday was the single largest decline ever recorded. Nearly double the 2011 crash. Larger than 2008. Larger than COVID.
Silver: -31.35% (z = -15.4σ)
Gold: -11.37% (z = -10.3σ)
A 15-sigma event shouldn't happen once in the lifetime of the universe under normal distributions. Of course, returns aren't normal. But still..
Gold: -11.37% (z = -10.3σ)
A 15-sigma event shouldn't happen once in the lifetime of the universe under normal distributions. Of course, returns aren't normal. But still..
January 31, 2026 at 10:43 AM
Silver: -31.35% (z = -15.4σ)
Gold: -11.37% (z = -10.3σ)
A 15-sigma event shouldn't happen once in the lifetime of the universe under normal distributions. Of course, returns aren't normal. But still..
Gold: -11.37% (z = -10.3σ)
A 15-sigma event shouldn't happen once in the lifetime of the universe under normal distributions. Of course, returns aren't normal. But still..