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Hongshen Zhu

@zhuhs.bsky.social

270 followers 290 following 33 posts

Assistant Professor of Political Science at Lingnan University in Hong Kong. Chinese Politics, bureaucracy, political economy.

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Political Science Research and Methods @psrm.bsky.social · Jun 30

💘Can authoritarian propaganda cultivate support and deter protest during “normal” times?

➡️ @tzyang.bsky.social & @zhuhs.bsky.social find that hard propaganda reinforces support for protest, while soft propaganda loses credibility www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView

Hongshen Zhu @zhuhs.bsky.social · Jun 19

Full article with Oxford/Emory's Tony Zirui Yang @tzyang.bsky.social is Open Access here: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Twisted tongue: limits of China’s propaganda during crises and policy changes | Political Science Research and Methods | Cambridge Core

Twisted tongue: limits of China’s propaganda during crises and policy changes

www.cambridge.org

Hongshen Zhu @zhuhs.bsky.social · Jun 19

Propaganda in policy change has limitations. Contradictory soft propaganda fails to persuade citizens to approve of government performance, while excessively one-sided hard propaganda for a new policy may lead citizens to view protests against the previous policy as justified.

Hongshen Zhu @zhuhs.bsky.social · Jun 19

Yet, hard propaganda has limitations. When its inconsistency (red dashed lines, upper panel) is less apparent-exposed only to pro-reopen propaganda-its protest-deterrence effect vanishes. Lower panel suggests it's likely due to heightened protest righteousness against local authorities (red dashed).

Hongshen Zhu @zhuhs.bsky.social · Jun 19

When respondents are exposed to conflicting hard propaganda messages (solid red bar, upper panel), they become less willing to participate in protests against lockdown. This may be due to the contradictory hard rhetoric further reinforcing the apparent regime strength.

Hongshen Zhu @zhuhs.bsky.social · Jun 19

We find that contradictory soft propaganda significantly decreased citizens’ assessment of the government's COVID performance (blue solid line in upper panel), while all pro-reopen messages increased respondents’ revealed support for reopening (dashed lines in lower panel).

Hongshen Zhu @zhuhs.bsky.social · Jun 19

We recruited 3,314 online respondents in China in December 2022 and randomly assigned them real pro-Zero-Covid and pro-reopen persuasive and assertive official messages—a realistic scenario when the official stance changed within days amid high policy uncertainty.

Hongshen Zhu @zhuhs.bsky.social · Jun 19

In December 2022, Chinese official propaganda on COVID policy made a sharp U-turn. How did these contradictory messages from the policy shift impact citizens’ perceptions? We find "soft" ones lost persuasiveness while "hard" ones more strongly deterred protests.
@psrm.bsky.social

Hongshen Zhu @zhuhs.bsky.social · Feb 21

Collective action problem.

Hongshen Zhu @zhuhs.bsky.social · Jan 14

There will never be a better deal that takes Chinese voices global, as foreign creators bring their audiences to their jurisdiction, on their terms, under their regulations, with an interest in Chinese content. Shutting down this is equivalent to forgoing every cultural leadership prospect of China.

Hongshen Zhu @zhuhs.bsky.social · Dec 28

What struck me the most in this Vivek saga is that how naturally aligned are tech mongols and the Democrats who supported legal immigration. The breakdown of their alliance on DEI has been very unfortunate for America.

Hongshen Zhu @zhuhs.bsky.social · Dec 24

Japanese newspapers today: Honda, Nissan, Mitsubishi merge.

Hongshen Zhu @zhuhs.bsky.social · Dec 12

The summer-kid globalist explanation overlooks Guan Zhong’s deeper statecraft lesson. Losing essential industries (agriculture in 650 BC, manufacturing today) threatens survival. As we face deglobalization and reindustrialization, we should revisit Dutch Disease in Guan Zhong’s light.

Hongshen Zhu @zhuhs.bsky.social · Dec 12

In 2014, The Economist clarified Dutch Disease was harmful because commodity prices fluctuate, ignoring supply chain security. www.economist.com/the-economis...

What Dutch disease is, and why it's bad

The term was coined by The Economist in 1977, but what does it mean?

www.economist.com

Hongshen Zhu @zhuhs.bsky.social · Dec 12

Dutch Disease was first problematized in 1977 by @TheEconomist, assuming a “manufacturing primacy” during the Cold War and Oil Crisis. Oil/gas advantages were seen as inferior due to their temporary, windfall nature.

Hongshen Zhu @zhuhs.bsky.social · Dec 12

I searched for similar ideas in Ancient Greece and found none. In Ancient Greece, free trade was natural, exploiting your comparative advantage was the norm. No one like Herodotus coined a “Corinth Disease” for exporting pottery.

Hongshen Zhu @zhuhs.bsky.social · Dec 12

This is known as 衡山之谋. Guan Zhong’s thinking was physiocratic in an era of fierce interstate rivalry, where trade could be cut off and war was common. Prudent statesmen should prioritize agriculture for self-sufficiency.

Hongshen Zhu @zhuhs.bsky.social · Dec 12

I taught Dutch Disease in my political economy class. My Classical Chinese colleague heard about it and said it’s exactly what ancient Chinese philosopher Guan Zhong (700–645 BC) did: tricking a neighbor state into abandoning agriculture by stimulating non-agricultural demand.

Hongshen Zhu @zhuhs.bsky.social · Dec 4

My Grandma must’ve been hearing so many chats among her circles about Ke Wang over the years but could not join in. That’s why she explained herself more than once that she was busy. The moment she found out she can choose what TV plays, she sprint to catch up with the 30 years ago trend.

Hongshen Zhu @zhuhs.bsky.social · Dec 4

“Ke Wang”(1990), or “Yearning” in English, is a household-name TV series in China with an eye-popping 90.78% ratings. My Grandma got streaming TV and picked it up. She explained she hadn’t watched it because she was busy working. She probably thought she’d never see it again if not for streaming.

Hongshen Zhu @zhuhs.bsky.social · Dec 2

By the way, Uniqlo in Shenzhen was crowded.

Hongshen Zhu @zhuhs.bsky.social · Dec 1

My interpretation would be people are lonely and wanting belongings.

Hongshen Zhu @zhuhs.bsky.social · Dec 1

Bookstore’s frontend reflects a city’s mental state. Here is one I took from Shenzhen: what stand out are two versions of Camus’s The Stranger, reminding me that everyone in Shenzhen is an immigrant.

Hongshen Zhu @zhuhs.bsky.social · Nov 26

Here is a post in Chinese on that: news.sciencenet.cn/htmlnews/202... Basically LLM training on those jokes are better performing than LLMs trained on materials in major platforms like Weibo because of the former’s originality. Also the BBS’s seasoned moderators are invited to attend AI conference.

Hongshen Zhu @zhuhs.bsky.social · Nov 26

Interesting coincidence: the famous Baidu joke-themed BBS 弱智吧 called themselves 青龙山精神病院, after a mental hospital in Nanjing. Their jokes are being used to train AI now. While the most famous mental hospital in South China is 青山医院 in Hong Kong, so famous that even Guangxi people use 入青山 as slurs.