The best arguments in favor of Dems caving all assume we're in the status quo ante regime and not experiencing rapid autocratization and constitutional failure
November 10, 2025 at 2:18 PM
The best arguments in favor of Dems caving all assume we're in the status quo ante regime and not experiencing rapid autocratization and constitutional failure
Im seeing a lot of arguments like this from colleagues in PoliSci
My view from working on autocracy is that Dems were winning on the biggest fight- making autocratization unpopular and now they're giving that up.
Those are the costs
My view from working on autocracy is that Dems were winning on the biggest fight- making autocratization unpopular and now they're giving that up.
Those are the costs
I’m not sure the benefits outweigh the costs, but this is a reasonable case that there are benefits to ending the shutdown.
I will probably get excommunicated from Bsky for saying that, but I can see a case for ending the shutdown now.
- Millions of civil servants did not get a salary for over a month, and millions are losing SNAP going into the holiday season.
- But, just as important...
- Millions of civil servants did not get a salary for over a month, and millions are losing SNAP going into the holiday season.
- But, just as important...
November 10, 2025 at 1:07 AM
Im seeing a lot of arguments like this from colleagues in PoliSci
My view from working on autocracy is that Dems were winning on the biggest fight- making autocratization unpopular and now they're giving that up.
Those are the costs
My view from working on autocracy is that Dems were winning on the biggest fight- making autocratization unpopular and now they're giving that up.
Those are the costs
Every other country that has faced this kind of autocratization of their government has had to deal with relatively younger figures who could maintain and consolidate power over decades. Putin, Orban, Erdogan, Modi etc. all took years to consolidate power and eliminate democratic institutions.
November 5, 2025 at 7:34 PM
Every other country that has faced this kind of autocratization of their government has had to deal with relatively younger figures who could maintain and consolidate power over decades. Putin, Orban, Erdogan, Modi etc. all took years to consolidate power and eliminate democratic institutions.
Today, I had the pleasure of giving a lecture on “Autocratization and Academic Freedom” at the Hannah Arendt Institute for Totalitarianism Studies (HAIT) in Dresden.
Grateful for the opportunity to share my research at such a historic and renowned institution.
@hait-tud.bsky.social @fau.de
Grateful for the opportunity to share my research at such a historic and renowned institution.
@hait-tud.bsky.social @fau.de
November 6, 2025 at 2:28 PM
Today, I had the pleasure of giving a lecture on “Autocratization and Academic Freedom” at the Hannah Arendt Institute for Totalitarianism Studies (HAIT) in Dresden.
Grateful for the opportunity to share my research at such a historic and renowned institution.
@hait-tud.bsky.social @fau.de
Grateful for the opportunity to share my research at such a historic and renowned institution.
@hait-tud.bsky.social @fau.de
Please join us for this year's Litowitz Lecture by Alejandro Poiré on "How to Confront Democratic Backsliding and Autocratization: Lessons From Mexico’s Failed Democratization.” Tuesday at 4 PM at Luce Hall, Room 101. Register to attend: bit.ly/498Gvzw
November 7, 2025 at 3:25 PM
Please join us for this year's Litowitz Lecture by Alejandro Poiré on "How to Confront Democratic Backsliding and Autocratization: Lessons From Mexico’s Failed Democratization.” Tuesday at 4 PM at Luce Hall, Room 101. Register to attend: bit.ly/498Gvzw
We live in an era of democratic backsliding and autocratization. Scholars and researchers are among those in the firing line. How should they respond? We will provide some hints and guidance int his webinar on 13 November for the European Geophysical Union:
How scientists can respond to autocratisation
<p>We live in an era of democratic backsliding and autocratisation, in which science is increasingly under politically-motivated attack. This webinar will provide an overview of how scientists can respond and safeguard their work. The webinar will last for 1.5 hours with time for audience Q&A. </p><p>Please register for this online event using the link at the bottom of the webpage.</p>
www.egu.eu
November 3, 2025 at 8:22 AM
We live in an era of democratic backsliding and autocratization. Scholars and researchers are among those in the firing line. How should they respond? We will provide some hints and guidance int his webinar on 13 November for the European Geophysical Union:
We live in an era of democratic backsliding and autocratization. Scholars and researchers are among those in the firing line. How should they respond? We will provide hints & guidance in a webinar on 13 November for the European Geophysical Union:
You can register here:
You can register here:
How scientists can respond to autocratisation
<p>We live in an era of democratic backsliding and autocratisation, in which science is increasingly under politically-motivated attack. This webinar will provide an overview of how scientists can respond and safeguard their work. The webinar will last for 1.5 hours with time for audience Q&A. This webinar is based on The Anti-Autocracy Handbook: developed by an international group of researchers, led by psychologist and disinformation expert Stephan Lewandowsky, the handbook serves as a call to action, a toolbox, and a survival guide for scholars in politically hostile environments.</p><p>Please register for this online event using the link at the bottom of the webpage.</p>
www.egu.eu
November 4, 2025 at 1:24 PM
We live in an era of democratic backsliding and autocratization. Scholars and researchers are among those in the firing line. How should they respond? We will provide hints & guidance in a webinar on 13 November for the European Geophysical Union:
You can register here:
You can register here:
Very proud of my PhD student @kwalz.bsky.social who successfully defended his thesis on "Pathways to breakdown resilience" today and is now Dr. (des.) Kevin Walz 🎉
Watch out for his book to learn how accountability can stop autocratization!
In Picture: Kevin🧑🎓, Natasha Wunsch, 2nd supervisor and me 😀
Watch out for his book to learn how accountability can stop autocratization!
In Picture: Kevin🧑🎓, Natasha Wunsch, 2nd supervisor and me 😀
October 30, 2025 at 2:06 PM
Very proud of my PhD student @kwalz.bsky.social who successfully defended his thesis on "Pathways to breakdown resilience" today and is now Dr. (des.) Kevin Walz 🎉
Watch out for his book to learn how accountability can stop autocratization!
In Picture: Kevin🧑🎓, Natasha Wunsch, 2nd supervisor and me 😀
Watch out for his book to learn how accountability can stop autocratization!
In Picture: Kevin🧑🎓, Natasha Wunsch, 2nd supervisor and me 😀
I am also concerned that we have been talking about geoengineering research ethics for twenty years, there’s still no consensus on where red lines are, and neither the entry of private money nor the autocratization of public money is going to make consensus easier.
October 26, 2025 at 12:14 AM
I am also concerned that we have been talking about geoengineering research ethics for twenty years, there’s still no consensus on where red lines are, and neither the entry of private money nor the autocratization of public money is going to make consensus easier.
Source: Nord, M., Angiolillo, F., Lundstedt, M., Wiebrecht, F., & Lindberg, S. I. (2025). When autocratization is reversed: episodes of U-Turns since 1900. Democratization, 32(5), 1136–1159.
October 21, 2025 at 7:00 PM
Source: Nord, M., Angiolillo, F., Lundstedt, M., Wiebrecht, F., & Lindberg, S. I. (2025). When autocratization is reversed: episodes of U-Turns since 1900. Democratization, 32(5), 1136–1159.
"Democratic backsliding" is the process through which modern authoritarianism happens.
October 19, 2025 at 7:52 PM
"Democratic backsliding" is the process through which modern authoritarianism happens.
This story rounding up the autocratization of American government & society makes my blood run cold
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
Trump, Feeling Emboldened, Pushes Agenda Into Higher Gear
Recent moves by the president reflect a commander in chief who has seemingly faced little resistance to his agenda.
www.wsj.com
October 11, 2025 at 2:28 PM
This story rounding up the autocratization of American government & society makes my blood run cold
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
Like, I can't emphasize enough how much the simultaneous autocratization of power in the federal government with the enfeeblement of the individual vested with that power should freak you out
Jake Tapper did a whole interview with Trump by text message? Which means he can't actually confirm it was him. And now everyone's asking even more than before very reasonable questions about the wannabe dictator's health.
www.independent.co.uk/news/world/a...
www.independent.co.uk/news/world/a...
October 6, 2025 at 7:10 PM
Like, I can't emphasize enough how much the simultaneous autocratization of power in the federal government with the enfeeblement of the individual vested with that power should freak you out
So happy to see this out! We caution against excessive optimism that the opposition will restore countries back to their democratic trajectories after electoral victory. Weakened institutions and the memory of repression makes it tempting to continue rather than buck the trend of autocratization.
Conventional wisdom says that, once in power, opposition parties will return backsliding countries to the democratic path. In reality, not only is this not true, but it is not uncommon for the opposition to adopt the autocratic habits of the regime they replaced.
muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/a...
1/2
muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/a...
1/2
October 1, 2025 at 5:27 PM
So happy to see this out! We caution against excessive optimism that the opposition will restore countries back to their democratic trajectories after electoral victory. Weakened institutions and the memory of repression makes it tempting to continue rather than buck the trend of autocratization.
“A key finding is that 52 percent of all autocratization episodes become U-Turns, which increases to 73 percent when focusing on the last 30 years,” write the authors. “The vast majority of U-Turns (90 percent) lead to restored or even improved levels of democracy.” www.splinter.com/study-dont-g...
Study: Don’t Give Up Hope
Splinter is your home for news and opinions that challenge power in our political and economic system that's becoming more unhinged each and every day.
www.splinter.com
September 30, 2025 at 3:14 PM
“A key finding is that 52 percent of all autocratization episodes become U-Turns, which increases to 73 percent when focusing on the last 30 years,” write the authors. “The vast majority of U-Turns (90 percent) lead to restored or even improved levels of democracy.” www.splinter.com/study-dont-g...
I’ll take it.
“52% of all autocratization episodes become U-Turns, which increases to 73% when focusing on the last 30 years.”
“52% of all autocratization episodes become U-Turns, which increases to 73% when focusing on the last 30 years.”
I do not regret to inform you that we are going to win (h/t @miriamposner.com)
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
September 21, 2025 at 10:29 PM
I’ll take it.
“52% of all autocratization episodes become U-Turns, which increases to 73% when focusing on the last 30 years.”
“52% of all autocratization episodes become U-Turns, which increases to 73% when focusing on the last 30 years.”
reposting the text image referenced above, this time with Alt text
September 21, 2025 at 6:11 PM
reposting the text image referenced above, this time with Alt text
The study Olúfémi cited here is long and detailed, but I want to highlight two specific paragraphs which get at why, like him, I know we will win.
September 21, 2025 at 5:56 PM
The study Olúfémi cited here is long and detailed, but I want to highlight two specific paragraphs which get at why, like him, I know we will win.
“52% of all autocratization episodes become U-Turns, which increases to 73% when focusing on the last 30 years. The vast majority of U-Turns (90%) lead to restored or even improved levels of democracy”
V-Dem data
V-Dem data
When autocratization is reversed: episodes of U-Turns since 1900
The world is in a “wave of autocratization.” Yet, recent events in Brazil, the Maldives, and Zambia demonstrate that autocratization can be halted and reversed. This article introduces “U-Turn” as ...
www.tandfonline.com
September 20, 2025 at 4:05 PM
“52% of all autocratization episodes become U-Turns, which increases to 73% when focusing on the last 30 years. The vast majority of U-Turns (90%) lead to restored or even improved levels of democracy”
V-Dem data
V-Dem data
They didn’t include the autocratization processes that started over the last decade or so in order to avoid having unresolved cases
September 20, 2025 at 11:51 PM
They didn’t include the autocratization processes that started over the last decade or so in order to avoid having unresolved cases
Bare for å motsi den "gode" analysen..
Den røde delen av grafen under viser hvor brått USA ble autokratisert i løpet av Trump sin første periode som president.
Kilde: v-dem.net/documents/61...
Den røde delen av grafen under viser hvor brått USA ble autokratisert i løpet av Trump sin første periode som president.
Kilde: v-dem.net/documents/61...
September 21, 2025 at 10:57 AM
Bare for å motsi den "gode" analysen..
Den røde delen av grafen under viser hvor brått USA ble autokratisert i løpet av Trump sin første periode som president.
Kilde: v-dem.net/documents/61...
Den røde delen av grafen under viser hvor brått USA ble autokratisert i løpet av Trump sin første periode som president.
Kilde: v-dem.net/documents/61...
"A key finding is that 52% of all autocratization episodes become U-Turns, which increases to 73% when focusing on the last 30 years. The vast majority of U-Turns (90%) lead to restored or even improved levels of democracy."
September 20, 2025 at 10:44 PM
"A key finding is that 52% of all autocratization episodes become U-Turns, which increases to 73% when focusing on the last 30 years. The vast majority of U-Turns (90%) lead to restored or even improved levels of democracy."
This is how destruction of freedom of speech & media independence looks like, it’s autocratization & unlevelling the playing field.
Yet again, it is not surprising what Trump does, but shocking how weak resistance by civil society & media is. Democratic society in the U.S. is not up to the task.
Yet again, it is not surprising what Trump does, but shocking how weak resistance by civil society & media is. Democratic society in the U.S. is not up to the task.
September 18, 2025 at 6:04 AM
This is how destruction of freedom of speech & media independence looks like, it’s autocratization & unlevelling the playing field.
Yet again, it is not surprising what Trump does, but shocking how weak resistance by civil society & media is. Democratic society in the U.S. is not up to the task.
Yet again, it is not surprising what Trump does, but shocking how weak resistance by civil society & media is. Democratic society in the U.S. is not up to the task.
Sometimes ai feel like I'm going insane. The GOP is torching the Constitution while Trump is stuffing his pockets, people are fleeing the Dems because they want someone to fight back against autocratization and corruption, and these people think accommodation is the right solution.
trump’s numbers are tanking and there is a palpable desire in the electorate for a real alternative and yet the only money in democratic politics is for doing starmerism
September 18, 2025 at 6:37 AM
Sometimes ai feel like I'm going insane. The GOP is torching the Constitution while Trump is stuffing his pockets, people are fleeing the Dems because they want someone to fight back against autocratization and corruption, and these people think accommodation is the right solution.