Executive Director for Data Infrastructure and Skills | Band X | Open Ended

Bitcoin is at risk of entering a new bear market due to a "bearish divergence" in a collection of BTC price metrics. The Bitcoin Macro Index, created by Capriole Investments, has been printing lower highs while the price prints higher highs, indicating a potential long-term peak. The index uses machine learning to analyze onchain and macro-market data, excluding price data and technical analysis. Since late 2023, the metric has been trending downward, causing concern among Bitcoin commentators. Charles Edwards, the creator of the index, reacted to the print by saying it's "not great" but added that he wouldn't fight it if the index turns positive. Various analytics sources have concluded that Bitcoin is experiencing macro turbulence this year. Onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant referenced four onchain metrics, including MVRV and NUPL, which suggest significant short-term turbulence. The Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) metric flipped bearish in February and needs to return above its 90-day simple moving average to change direction. The metrics do not indicate that Bitcoin has reached an overheated or cycle-top level, but rather suggest turbulence in the short to mid-term. Overall, the signals are troubling, but readers should conduct their own research before making any investment decisions.

The industry has long been “broken.”