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simonleewx.com
One of our results in doi.org/10.1002/qj.3... was that the relationship between the S-G pattern & stratospheric heat flux is biased low at longer lead-times, i.e. even if S-G correctly forecast in troposphere, the deceleration of the vortex would be smaller than in reality. This fits recent fcsts
Fig 11 in Lee et al. 2020 QJRMS. Weekly mean regression coefficients between the S–G index in each ensemble member and the corresponding eddy heat flux anomalies at (a) 300 hPa on the same day, (b) 100 hPa three days later, and (c) 50 hPa four days later. The lags correspond to days with maximum correlation in ERA5. Equivalent ERA5 statistics are also shown. The models are sorted left-to-right by increasing horizontal resolution. Error bars indicate 95% confidence intervals according to a bootstrap resampling procedure; stippled bars indicate where these do not overlap with those of ERA5
February 2, 2025 at 1:40 PM
simonleewx.com
Tropospheric amplification of stratosphere–troposphere coupling -- Baldwin et al., QJRMS

"The high polar SLP associated with an SSW is mainly from mass moving into the polar cap within the troposphere."

Open access: doi.org/10.1002/qj.4...
Tropospheric amplification of stratosphere–troposphere coupling
When the stratospheric polar vortex is weak, as during a sudden stratospheric warming, the Arctic tropopause is forced downward. This compression of the polar troposphere acts to build higher Arctic ...
doi.org
October 11, 2024 at 1:23 PM
johnmarsham.bsky.social
How sensitive are Sahelian Mesoscale Convective Systems to cold pool suppression?

You might think "very".

But switching off cold pools doesn't affect diurnal MCS counts, & the reduction of MCS speeds is caused by an AEJ slow-down.

Now accepted in QJRMS.

essopenarchive.org/users/779964...
How sensitive are Sahelian Mesoscale Convective Systems to cold pool suppression?
Understanding the physical processes driving deep convective storms is an essential prerequisite for understanding the wider tropical atmosphere. Cold pools driven by rainfall evaporation are a ubiqui...
essopenarchive.org
June 2, 2025 at 11:35 AM
simonleewx.com
For a comprehensive overview, see this open-access review paper by Clark & Gray (2018) in QJRMS. The 'Myths and Misunderstandings' section is particularly useful. doi.org/10.1002/qj.3...
Sting jets in extratropical cyclones: a review
The sting jet is a coherent air flow that descends from mid-levels inside the cloud head into the frontal-fracture region of a Shapiro–Keyser cyclone over a period of a few hours leading to a distinc...
doi.org
January 24, 2025 at 9:17 AM
suegrimmond.bsky.social
Relevant recent papers to PDRA position
Fenner et al. 2024 BAMS
Hall et al. 2024 QJRMS
Saunders et al. 2024 QJRMS
November 25, 2024 at 9:51 AM
cdroberts.bsky.social
Final published version of “Unbiased calculation, evaluation, and calibration of ensemble forecast anomalies” now available online in QJRMS:

rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...

Original thread on the preprint from the other place:

x.com/ClimatePrima...
x.com
April 19, 2025 at 10:24 AM
fuldenbatibeniz.bsky.social
🚨 Excited to share our latest publication in the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (RMetS)! @rmets.org 🌊🌪️
We investigate air–sea interactions during Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones (medicanes) using RegESM.

📄 doi.org/10.1002/qj.5...

#Medicanes #QJRMS #MedCORDEX
Air–sea interaction in medicanes with atmosphere–ocean–wave coupled regional climate simulations
The atmosphere–ocean–wave coupling improved storm intensity compared to standalone atmosphere setting, which tended to overestimate wind speeds. The atmosphere–ocean coupling in medicane simulations ...
doi.org
June 26, 2025 at 3:10 PM
ccrc.bsky.social
(QJRMS) for 2023! Congrats all! Here is the paper Link:
doi.org/10.1002/qj.4...
doi.org/10.1002/qj.4...
Representing the effects of building height variability on urban canopy flow
Urban canopy flow responds to neighborhoods of different building height variability differently. However, this urban feature is not well characterized in urban flow models. We tested 98 urban arrays...
doi.org
March 20, 2025 at 11:06 PM
simonleewx.com
New paper from me & Lorenzo Polvani just published in QJRMS! 📣

We investigate the NAM in seasonal climate models. We find a systematic exaggeration of the Pacific centre, which we show is due to exaggerated Aleutian Low variability.

Open link: rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/share/VNVGNT...
Large model biases in the Pacific centre of the Northern Annular Mode due to exaggerated variability of the Aleutian Low
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rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
August 7, 2024 at 1:05 PM