While the state of the economy was likely an important factor in the 2024 presidential election and other recent contests, discontent over economic conditions doesn’t really explain the movement of white working class voters to the Republican Party in the longer-term. Rather, cultural issues were probably a larger driver of white working class voters, once the base of the Democratic Party decades ago, into the Republican column.

After months out of the limelight, Hillary Clinton edged back into view recently with two fits of activity. The first was an announcement that her voters should read Verrit, a website managed by a former Clinton digital strategist that purports to post verified facts for the 65.8 million people who voted for her. One of […]

After months out of the limelight, Hillary Clinton edged back into view recently with two fits of activity. The first was an announcement that her voters should read Verrit, a website managed by a former Clinton digital strategist that purports to post verified facts for the 65.8 million people who voted for her. One of […]

After months out of the limelight, Hillary Clinton edged back into view recently with two fits of activity. The first was an announcement that her voters should read Verrit, a website managed by a former Clinton digital strategist that purports to post verified facts for the 65.8 million people who voted for her. One of […]

After months out of the limelight, Hillary Clinton edged back into view recently with two fits of activity. The first was an announcement that her voters should read Verrit, a website managed by a former Clinton digital strategist that purports to post verified facts for the 65.8 million people who voted for her. One of […]

A recent report from Third Way, a centrist Democratic think tank, criticized my research and that of other political scientists who have concluded that independent leaners — voters who identify themselves as independents but indicate that they usually feel closer to one political party or the other — are really closet partisans. The Third Way […]

A look at key 2025 results as well as voter registration trends in Pennsylvania

Just a couple of basic factors—House generic ballot polling and the number of seats the presidential party is defending—do a decent job of predicting midterm congressional election results.

A look at key 2025 results as well as voter registration trends in Pennsylvania

A look at key 2025 results as well as voter registration trends in Pennsylvania

To read recent stories on the race for the Senate, click here. 2026 Senate ratings Updated Oct. 23, 2025 2026 Senate elections Post-2024 control of Senate seats

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball is a free, nonpartisan weekly online political newsletter and website in the United States that analyzes current American politics and predicts electoral outcomes for U.S House of Representatives, U.S. Senate, governors, and U.S. president races.

A look at key 2025 results as well as voter registration trends in Pennsylvania

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball is a free, nonpartisan weekly online political newsletter and website in the United States that analyzes current American politics and predicts electoral outcomes for U.S House of Representatives, U.S. Senate, governors, and U.S. president races.

Turnout and swing patterns in VA suggested some "missing" pro-Trump minority voters this year; "Central Jersey" gets bluer; how Govs.-elect Spanberger (D-VA) and Sherrill's (D-NJ) old districts voted.