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Adam S. Posen

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Adam Simon Posen CBE is an American economist and President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE). He became… more

Adam S. Posen
H-index: 33
Economics 94%
Political science 4%
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Reposted by Adam S. Posen

Reposted by Adam S. Posen

Reposted by Adam S. Posen

Reposted by Adam S. Posen, Dean Baker

Reposted by Adam S. Posen

by Adam S. Posen

by Adam S. Posen

adamposen.bsky.social
Trump and Xi are both posturing ahead of their upcoming summit, but PRC/Xi is escalating - as noted by @rushdoshi.bsky.social and Lingling Wei this is because they think (rightly) Trump will back off.
*Taps the sign* (I warned y'all @foreignaffairs.com )
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
Trade Wars Are Easy to Lose
Beijing has escalation dominance in the U.S.-Chinese tariff fight.
www.foreignaffairs.com
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by Adam S. Posen

Reposted by Adam S. Posen

piie.com
WATCH: @adamposen.bsky.social explains why the substantial inflationary impact from tariffs & deportations has been lagged but is coming.
Adam S. Posen on why inflation impact from tariffs and deportations has been lagged
YouTube video by Peterson Institute for International Economics
www.youtube.com
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Reposted by Adam S. Posen

by Adam S. Posen — Reposted by Adam S. Posen

adamposen.bsky.social
New video! Why the substantial inflationary impact from tariffs and deportations has been lagged but is coming
A real world based take on the US economic forecast
Me excerpted from @piie.com Global Economic Prospects
www.piie.com/newsroom/sho...
Adam S. Posen on why inflation impact from tariffs and deportations has been lagged
Adam S. Posen explains at the Peterson Institute for International Economics Global Economic Prospects Fall 2025 event the effects of US policies like tariffs and deportations on inflation, the labor ...
www.piie.com
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by Adam S. Posen

adamposen.bsky.social
New video! Why the substantial inflationary impact from tariffs and deportations has been lagged but is coming
A real world based take on the US economic forecast
Me excerpted from @piie.com Global Economic Prospects
www.piie.com/newsroom/sho...
Adam S. Posen on why inflation impact from tariffs and deportations has been lagged
Adam S. Posen explains at the Peterson Institute for International Economics Global Economic Prospects Fall 2025 event the effects of US policies like tariffs and deportations on inflation, the labor ...
www.piie.com
1 9

by Adam S. Posen

by Alberto Cavallo — Reposted by Adam S. Posen, Barry Eichengreen, Lars P. Feld , and 1 more

Reposted by Adam S. Posen

Reposted by Adam S. Posen

by Adam S. Posen

adamposen.bsky.social
Global growth holds up despite policy headwinds and rising risks - New blog by Karen Dynan
Latest global economic propsects from @piie.com

www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
Global growth holds up despite policy headwinds and rising risks
The global economy is growing more strongly than expected this year, despite rising trade tensions and high uncertainty around US economic policy. Optimism about artificial intelligence (AI), particul...
www.piie.com
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by Adam S. Posen

by Adam S. Posen

Reposted by Adam S. Posen

Reposted by Adam S. Posen

piie.com
Inflation is going to be higher in the US in the news few years than most are forecasting, @adamposen.bsky.social says.

Find slides & watch the Global Economic Prospects event here: www.piie.com/events/2025/...
Why the inflation impact of deportation has been lagged If 1 million+ migrants have left, how has production stayed up? No increase in native or legal employment in the sectors which are known to be heavy users of migrant labor What is going on? McKibbin, Noland, and Hogan (2024) says impact should be big and stagflationary Substitution of K or L not there in the data Mismeasurement of net migrant outflows? Over-counting/claims of total deported? Or workers and families take time to make up their minds on a wrenching decision Not sure that ICE really will come for them Head underground but keep working Employers do not have to pay more or invest – in fact can end up paying less Difficult to decide when to leave Actual financial conditions are more relevant than FFR Inflation expectations are less well anchored Recent past experience of higher inflation has a lasting impact (Gagnon and Kamin 2025) Staggered salient price hikes are coming Think like eggs under Biden Beef, certain fruit and veg, musical instruments, toys… De minimis imported goods Some pharmaceuticals potentially Energy depending upon the impact of AI demand Durable goods (autos, furniture, construction inputs), though, are less salient for inflation perceptions
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Reposted by Adam S. Posen

Reposted by Adam S. Posen

Reposted by Adam S. Posen

Reposted by Adam S. Posen

piie.com
@adamposen.bsky.social on gold buyers:
Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour. https://www.ft.com/content/4eefc53c-de68-4495-b729-b028916dd645 Adam Posen of the Peterson Institute agrees that gold buyers’ are not primarily motivated by inflation:  Gold prices are being driven primarily by retail investors, enemy regimes (Russia and Iran), and some speculators. It is primarily driven by investors who fundamentally distrust the US government and fiat money. Not just inflation. In fact, gold’s value (like crypto) to these people is in large part due to being uncorrelated with US macro and government (so not US inflation and the Fed).
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Reposted by Adam S. Posen

by Adam S. Posen — Reposted by Arvind Subramanian

by Adam S. Posen

adamposen.bsky.social
Global Economic Prospects: Fall 2025

Live today 1p ET @PIIE our
Global Economic Prospects
Karen Dynan with US and G20 growth outlook, me on why US inflation will be high, and Arvind Subramanian on the China Shock to LMIEs growth

www.piie.com/events/2025/...
Global Economic Prospects: Fall 2025
The Peterson Institute for International Economics presents the fall 2025 PIIE Global Economic Prospects, the Institute’s semiannual outlook for the US and global economies. Karen Dynan, nonresident s...
www.piie.com
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Reposted by Adam S. Posen, Robb Willer, Patrick Dunleavy , and 3 more

Reposted by Adam S. Posen

kiel.institute
🍂 As part of the @piie.com fall meetings on Oct 16, @schularick.bsky.social will highlight the euro's growing importanance in the global monetary system in a discussion with Maurice Obstfeld & Joseph E. Gagnon, moderated by @adamposen.bsky.social

🔗 Register now 👉 piie.com/events/2025/...
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