Scholar

Benjamin P. Geisler

H-index: 17
Economics 45%
Medicine 32%
ben-geisler.com
Pure gold from Adam Rodman on overconfidence of reasoning models. Does this mirror incompetent + overconfident residents?

x.com/AdamRodmanMD/s... (yes, X, but worth your while)
ben-geisler.com
Clinical Implications: The 10% recurrence rate in placebo group suggests "provoked" VTE with enduring risk factors may have similar recurrence risk to "unprovoked" VTE. Simple provoked vs unprovoked categorization may be insufficient for treatment decisions.

7/8
ben-geisler.com
Study Population: Mean age 59.5 years, 57% female. Most common provoking factors: surgery (33.5%), immobility (31.3%), trauma (19.2%). Most common enduring risk factors: chronic inflammatory disease (52.2%), obesity BMI≥30 (48.2%), atherosclerotic CVD (29.3%).

6/8
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Safety Events: Major bleeding: 0.3% (apixaban) vs 0% (placebo). Clinically relevant non-major bleeding: 4.8% vs 1.7% (HR 2.68, P=0.06). One major bleed was a 3mm subdural hematoma after horse fall - no hospitalization required.

5/8
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Primary Results: Symptomatic recurrent VTE occurred in 1.3% (apixaban) vs 10.0% (placebo)

- an 87% relative risk reduction (HR 0.13, 95% CI 0.04-0.36, p<0.001)

Number needed to treat = 12

4/8
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Study Design: HI-PRO was a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial.

600 patients with provoked VTE + ≥1 enduring risk factor received apixaban 2.5mg BID vs. placebo for 12 months after completing ≥3 months of initial anticoagulation.

3/8
ben-geisler.com
Background: Current guidelines recommend 3-6 months of anticoagulation for provoked VTE (surgery, trauma, immobility).

What about patients with enduring risk factors like obesity, chronic lung disease, or autoimmune disorders?

2/8
ben-geisler.com
🧵 HI-PRO trial from @escardio: low-dose apixaban _long-term_ for "provoked" VTE

This will likely be practice-changing: HI-PRO challenges the current practice re: anticoagulation duration for "provoked" VTE

1/8 📊
ben-geisler.com
5/6
⚖️ Migration is one factor shaping Europe’s future. Employment rates, pension reform & healthcare capacity also matter. Some rural areas face depopulation, but newcomer resettlement projects show potential to revitalize communities.
ben-geisler.com
4/6
🏥 European health systems depend heavily on foreign-trained doctors. Norway, Ireland, Switzerland, UK & Sweden have 30-44% foreign-trained doctors.

🇳🇴 relies on Norwegians educated abroad due to limited domestic medical school slots.
ben-geisler.com
3/6
💸 Tax burdens are rising as pension & elderly care costs grow. These demographic trends will put greater fiscal pressure on governments & societies in decades ahead.
ben-geisler.com
2/6
📉 Low birth rates drive native population decline. Without migration, the EU population could fall from 447M today to ~295M by 2100. The share of 65+ could rise from 21% to 36%, increasing care burdens & government spending.
ben-geisler.com
1/6
🌍 Europe faces a major demographic challenge. By 2100, the 🇪🇺’s population may shrink 6% with migration, but over 1/3 without it. Countries like Italy, Germany & France could face economic pressures from ageing populations & shrinking workforces.

#Demographics #Europe
ben-geisler.com
🧠💡 Proud to share AI predicting arterial oxygen during brain surgery with 84% accuracy - no extra arterial sticks!

Looking forward to validation.
Comparing supervised machine learning algorithms for the prediction of partial arterial pressure of oxygen during craniotomy - BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making
Background and Objectives Brain tissue oxygenation is usually inferred from arterial partial pressure of oxygen (paO2), which is in turn often inferred from pulse oximetry measurements or other non-invasive proxies. Our aim was to evaluate the feasibility of continuous paO2 prediction in an intraoperative setting among neurosurgical patients undergoing craniotomies with modern machine learning methods. Methods Data from routine clinical care of lung-healthy neurosurgical patients were extracted from databases of the respective clinical systems and normalized. We used recursive feature elimination to identify relevant features for the prediction of paO2. Six machine learning regression algorithms (gradient boosting, k-nearest neighbors, random forest, support vector, neural network, linear model with stochastic gradient descent) and a multivariable linear regression were then tuned and fitted to the selected features. A performance matrix consisting of standard deviation of absolute errors (σae), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), adjusted R2, root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and Spearman’s ρ was finally computed based on the test set, and used to compare and rank each algorithm. Results We analyzed N = 4,581 patients with n = 17,821 observations. Between 5 and 22 features were selected from the analysis of the training dataset comprising 3,436 patients with 13,257 observations. The best algorithm, a regularized linear model with stochastic gradient descent, could predict paO2 values with σae = 86.4 mmHg, MAPE = 16 %, adjusted R2 = 0.77, RMSE = 44 mmHg and Spearman’s ρ = 0.83. Further improvement was possible by calibrating the algorithm with the first measured paO2/FiO2 (p/F) ratio during surgery. Conclusion PaO2 can be predicted by perioperative routine data in neurosurgical patients even before blood gas analysis. The prediction improves further when including the first measured p/F ratio, realizing quasi-continuous paO2 monitoring.
bmcmedinformdecismak.biomedcentral.com
ben-geisler.com
📢 PhD in Health Economics @ University Of Oslo! Fully paid 3yr position in MoPeK project on sustainable municipal health staffing. Join our dynamic research environment & contribute to real health policy change.
Apply by Sept 30!
#PhD #HealthEconomics
PhD stipendiat i helseøkonomi (284854) | Universitetet i Oslo
Stillingstittel: PhD stipendiat i helseøkonomi (284854), Arbeidsgiver: Universitetet i Oslo, Søknadsfrist: tirsdag 30. september 2025
www.jobbnorge.no
ben-geisler.com
This conference has an intriguing format: the discussant summarizes the paper (circulated beforehand & assumed read) and then gives constructive feedback. The author then responds by answering questions and concerns. Then the audience serves as an additional sounding board
ben-geisler.com
Overheard at the 44th Nordic Health Economists' Study Group 2025 in Oslo: "crouching tiger, hidden labor market"

- however, NHSEG now has one of their parallel sessions dedicated to economic evaluation!

1/2
ben-geisler.com
Overheard at a economics conference: "crouching tiger, hidden labor market"
ben-geisler.com
💡 We need systemic change. Academia belongs to humanity, not shareholders.

How to accomplish that? Not easy without tearing the whole system apart IMHO

Your thoughts?
ben-geisler.com
⚖️ Will universities face a dilemma in the future: hire more human researchers OR license AI tools from publishers?
🧑‍🏫 vs. 🤖?

Could fundamentally reshape academia?

And we haven't even touched how the research will look like - will it be all more, well, uniform?
ben-geisler.com
🧩 These deals are PIECEMEAL - only some publishers, some content

Same could be true for the publisher's AI tools

AI models trained on incomplete literature will have systematic gaps & biases

Science needs complete knowledge, not cherry-picked data
ben-geisler.com
🤖 cont'd

Springer Nature:
-Geppetto (in-house nonsense text detector)
-SnappShot: fraudulent images

Wiley:
-author-facing AI assistants
-Papermill Detection Service
-LLM detectors (the irony..)
ben-geisler.com
🤖 cont'd

Elsevier alone has at least 5 AI initiatives related to health/medicine:
-ScienceDirect AI
-Scopus AI
-Embase AI
-ClinicalKey AI
-SciBite: ontology-backed semantics/search, a chatbot built on top, promising traceability, explainability, and integration

References

Fields & subjects

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