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Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

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Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas is a French economist who has been the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund since 2022. Gourinchas… more

H-index: 51
Economics 95%
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by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas — Reposted by: Andrea Presbitero

by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

pgourinchas.bsky.social
New WEO chapter is out. Industrial policy can raise production in a strategic sector, but this needs to be balanced against higher consumer prices, fiscal costs, and risks of misallocation. Managing these trade-offs is key. www.imf.org/en/Publicati...
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by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas — Reposted by: Andrea Presbitero

by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

pgourinchas.bsky.social
Despite these shifts, the international monetary system remains solidly anchored by the US dollar, which continues to provide global stability, even if the excess return on US foreign assets (the US 'exorbitant privilege') has declined over time. imf.org/en/Blogs/Art...
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by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

pgourinchas.bsky.social
Global current account balances widened in 2024, reversing a narrowing trend. Our latest External Sector Report finds that 2/3 of this widening is excessive—driven by macroeconomic imbalances in China, the US, and the euro area. Read the full report a imf.org/en/Publicati...
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by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

pgourinchas.bsky.social
Our policy recommendations call for prudence and improved collaboration. The first priority should be to restore a clear stable and predictable trade environment. Monetary policy must remain agile; rebuilding fiscal buffers is crucial, and structural reforms remain needed.
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by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

pgourinchas.bsky.social
In the US, tariffs constitute a negative supply shock, with growth revised down and inflation revised up. For trading partners like China, tariffs are mostly a negative demand shock, with growth and inflation both revised down. www.imf.org/en/Publicati...
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by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

pgourinchas.bsky.social
Our report presents a range of global growth outlooks: Compared to the reference forecast, growth would have been higher under the pre-April 2 alternative, while the pause on April 9, even if permanent, does not significantly alter the negative impact on global growth.
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by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

pgourinchas.bsky.social
Our new WEO out. The global economy is entering a new era. Effective tariff rates reach levels not seen in a century. We project global growth at 2.8% for 2025—a major downgrade reflecting escalating trade tensions and high policy uncertainty. www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Art...
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by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

pgourinchas.bsky.social
New WEO chapter out. Tighter migration policies can alter where people move to and under what category— with ripple effects across and within countries www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Art...
Migration and Refugee Policies Steer People, and Economies, in New Directions
When destination countries tighten migration and refugee policies, it has economic ripple effects elsewhere
www.imf.org
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by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

by International Monetary Fund — Reposted by: Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

Reposted by: Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

Reposted by: Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

jintlecon.bsky.social
New at JIE: "Changing global linkages: A new Cold War?" by Gita Gopinath, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas (@pgourinchas.bsky.social), Andrea F. Presbitero, Petia Topalova

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104042
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Reposted by: Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas, Roberta Gatti

by Andrea Presbitero — Reposted by: Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas, Caterina Mendicino

by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

pgourinchas.bsky.social
Policymakers should prioritize urgent fiscal policy adjustments and targeted structural reforms while maintaining price stability in an environment of fragile inflation expectations. Success in achieving sustainable global growth will require international cooperation. www.imf.org/en/Publicati...
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by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

pgourinchas.bsky.social
Persistent divergence between economies, reflects in part structural factors. The US shows stronger productivity growth, which has helped raise its potential growth compared to other countries. www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Art...
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by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

pgourinchas.bsky.social
We have revised US growth up while the euro area faces headwinds from low consumer confidence and the persistence of the energy price shock. www.imf.org/en/Publicati...
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by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas — Reposted by: Antoine Berthou

pgourinchas.bsky.social
Our January 2025 World Economic Outlook Update is out. Global growth will remain steady at 3.3% for 2025-26, broadly aligned with world potential growth that has substantially weakened since before the pandemic. www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Art...
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Reposted by: Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

aranchagonzalez.bsky.social
Today @cepr.org & Sciences Po pay tribute to one of ours Philippe Martin, colleague and friend to many of us

And what better way than to discuss economics, trade and geopolitics

@pgourinchas.bsky.social
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by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas — Reposted by: Gastón Gelos

by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

pgourinchas.bsky.social
The likelihood of a 'soft landing', disinflation without a major slowdown in economic activity, has increased. This is particularly the case in the United States, where we now forecast a modest increase in unemployment from 3.6% to 3.9% by 2025. 3/6
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by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

pgourinchas.bsky.social
Our advice to policymakers? - Remain focused on price stability - Rebuild fiscal buffers - Reforms to boost productivity and fight dimming MT growth prospects - Improve international cooperation - Prevent costly geoeconomic fragmentation bit.ly/3Q4BMFc 6/6
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by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

pgourinchas.bsky.social
Commodity prices could become more volatile amid climate and geopolitical shocks, posing a serious risk to the disinflation path. Higher energy & food prices would bring greater hardship to low-income countries. Economic decoupling could also affect the climate transition. 5/6
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by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

pgourinchas.bsky.social
Risks to the global economy persist. China's real estate crisis could intensify, posing a complex policy challenge. But it is important for China's economy to pivot away from growth driven by credit to the real estate sector. bit.ly/3PPpm2H 4/6
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