Robert Ford
by Robert Ford
Labour: How bad is it?
The polling picture 14 months in is not pretty Labour activists and MPs have emerged from their party conference feeling remarkably chipper, buoyed by a leader’s speech which reminded them that being in power is good, and manged to draw dividing lines with the party’s Conservative and Reform opponents and even gave the party’s often disappointed liberals and progressives some lines to cheer. The pow…
by Robert Ford
Sandbag to springboard: Explaining Reform's local elections breakthrough
When First Past the Post goes from foe to friend The Swingometer has been quiet for the past few months as I’ve had my hands full with another writing project - ‘The British General Election of 2024’, the latest in the long series of ‘Nuffield’ election books covering every election since 1945. I’m pleased to say this book is now in the production process with the publishers, and will be out later thi…
by Robert Ford
The British General Election of 2024
The book that has kept me busy (and quiet) is nearly here If you were wondering why the Swingometer has been pretty quiet in recent months, the reason is I’ve been toiling away with my excellent colleagues Tim Bale, Will Jennings and Paula Surridge on “The British General Election of 2024”, the definitive account of last year’s election, and the latest in the ‘Nuffield’ series of election studies which have co…
by Robert Ford
Local elections preview
Things to watch out for as a fragmented England votes Spring is here, the sun is out, and that can mean only one thing: local elections are upon us once again. Today’s contests in England are the first electoral test for the new Labour government who haven’t had the easiest time of it since the loveless landslide of last July, when ruthless electoral efficiency enabled Labour to triumph over all comers in …
by Robert Ford
Reviewing my 2024 predictions
The annual audit returns Predictions are a hazardous business in politics, but they are worth making every so often anyway. Being wrong in public is a good check on the ego and encourages reflection on what was missed or misunderstood at the time the prediction was made. I picked up this habit of annual predictions audits from two politics analysts -
by Robert Ford
Nic O Nas Bez Nas
Why settled migrants deserve voting rights This piece was originally written in 2018. As the new Labour government elected in July is committed to pursuing a package of reforms to elections and the democratic process, with the King’s speech promising action to “strengthen the integrity of elections and encourage wide participation in the democratic process”, this seemed an opportune moment to up…
by Robert Ford
The Trump victory - a view from the frontline
A guest post from Ian Warren As we all digest last night’s shock result from the United States, where a massive red wave has swept Donald Trump back into the White House, here is a special guest from veteran campaign professional, data shed manager and longstanding friend of the Swingometer, Ian Warren. In a two decade career working with campaigns across the world Ian has forgotte…
by Robert Ford
A short honeymoon for Starmer?
Voters' love for new governments doesn't last Yesterday was an unwanted milestone for the new Labour government, as BMG published the first poll to show them trailing the Conservative opposition, albeit by a narrow 29-28 margin in a fragmented field. Labour led the Tories in opposition for two and a half years, their lead in government has lasted less than four months. Some honeymoon.
by Robert Ford
Electoral chaos theory 1: from order to chaos
We're going to need a bigger swingometer The 1980s were a golden era for TV science documentaries, and as a child obsessed with both science and TV, I watched a lot of them. One of my favourites, watched a dozen times or more on a worn VHS cassette, was an episode of the Channel 4 “Equinox” documentary series called “Chaos”, in which a series of men
by Robert Ford
Changing Attitudes, Changing Coalitions: The Politics of Immigration before and after Brexit
For years, the politics of immigration in Britain has followed a recurring cycle. But now, voters who see immigration as an opportunity outnumber those who see it as a threat. What does this mean? The politics of immigration in Britain has followed a recurring cycle. The need to meet international commitments and address domestic economic pressures encourage governments to accept higher immigration levels than most voters say they want. This persistent failure to meet public demands is politically destabilising, enabling far-right politicians to …
by Robert Ford
The half time verdict
Three weeks down, three to go, what do the voters think? Today is, by my reckoning, the 21st day of this campaign, with 21 more days to go. It’s half time. A good point to grab a cup of tea and look at the lay of the land. This campaign started with an unforced error, as a Prime Minister without an umbrella was drenched in a downpour while telling voters he was the man with a plan. It has since been defined b…
by Robert Ford
The general election in numbers
Some crunchy stats to kickstart your campaign 47 - the number of seats the Conservatives notionally won in 2019 and can afford to lose before they lose their overall majority. Lose more than this and they are very likely to be out of government, as they have no friends among the minor parties
by Robert Ford
Analysing the May results 2: Winning where it matters, losing where it hurts
The return of three voting patterns that will worry Conservatives, and encourage Labour The governing party seemed to take heart from local council results this month, despite losing nearly half of the seats they were defending. The source of the Tory morale boost was a projection produced by Professor Michael Thrasher and Sky News which
by Robert Ford
Analysing the May results 1: everything but the councils
Starmer breaks a Blair record in the by-election, big swings in the PCCs, and encouraging signs in the open seat Mayoral elections With the big three day festival of vote counting now at an end, the time has come to sift through the results and see what it all means. In this piece, I kick things off with a look at the Blackpool South by-election, the Police and Crime Commissioner contests and the Mayoral contests. Voters’ behaviour in all three largely supported the message we have…
by Robert Ford
Local elections: The Big Preview, part 2
Blackpool, Mayors and Police Commissioners While most of the seats won and lost this week will be in local council contests, we have a diverse set of other election contests taking place as well, including what may end up being the last Westminster by-election before the general election, the London Mayoral election and ten other Combined Authority Mayoral elections and the election of 37 Polic…
by Robert Ford
Local elections: The Big Preview
Part 1: The lay of the land The final big test before the general election is upon us, with a smorgasbord of electoral contests this Thursday, including a Westminster by-election; the election of ten mayors in many of England’s largest cities, including the capital; the election of all members of the London Assembly; elections to some or all seats on 107 local councils, and the el…
by Robert Ford
Could Sadiq Khan Lose in London?
His advisers say the race is closer than it looks. Do their claims stack up? Sadiq Khan is worried, and he wants you to know this. Although polling puts him well ahead in his race for a third term, the London Mayor has been heavily briefing their anxieties about a supposed “perfect storm” of negative factors which could yet cost Labour control of the capital. A few weeks ago,
by Robert Ford
The Rochdale by-election: Galloway does it again
Veteran firebrand completes his hat-trick of upsets over Labour in a contest defined by controversy By-elections are seldom boring these days. So far this Parliament we have seen the largest ever swing to a governing party (Hartlepool, 2021); the second largest ever Conservative to Labour swing (Wellingborough, 2024); and the second and third largest ever Conservative to Liberal Democrat swings (North Shropshire, 2021; Tiverton and Honiton 2022). Now …
by Robert Ford
"Things can only get better"
Two more stonking by-election wins for Starmer; ReformUK now a real threat This was another happy night for Labour activists, as two more Conservative seats fell to the opposition on massive swings. Labour overturned a 23 per cent majority in the Bristol suburbs to take Kingswood on a 16.6 point swing. But it will be Wellingborough that grabs the headlines, with Labour comfortably overturned a whopping 36 point majority on a m…