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Bobby Kogan

@bbkogan.bsky.social

35K followers 470 following 2.8K posts

Senior Director of Federal Budget Policy for the Center for American Progress doing budget, tax, and econ. Formerly: Biden OMB, Biden Transition Team, Senate Budget Committee (Murray and Sanders). CBO and OMB’s biggest fan! Personal account.

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Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · Nov 11

Two starter packs from me!

First, for the very few of you who care about it, a budget and tax starter pack!

Please let me know if you should be on this and I missed you!
go.bsky.app/N6Nukd7

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Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 18h

We saw the type of "reforms" Johnson has supported. His Medicaid "reforms" kicked nearly 10 million people off the program. His Obamacare "reforms" would have kicked millions off and allowed insurers to charge more for people with preexisting conditions.

He just wants to cut health care.

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur.bsky.social · 18h

NEW: Obamacare fight escalates as shutdown drags on

Speaker Johnson calls the expiring subsidies at issue a "boondoggle" that won't be extended in this bill—or without "real reform."

Democrats aren't budging, saying action now is urgent to avert a premium hike.

www.nbcnews.com/politics/con...

Mike Johnson slams Obamacare funds as a 'boondoggle' as shutdown drags on

Johnson also addressed conservative calls to repeal Obamacare, whose enhanced tax credits form the main dispute between the two parties that led to the funding impasse.

www.nbcnews.com

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Reposted by Bobby Kogan

Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 21h

The Friends of BLS steering committee is sponsoring a member webinar noon to 1pm ET Thurs, Oct 23.

We aim to build nonpartisan support for a strong BLS & need your perspectives & energy.

Former Commissioners @ericagroshen.bsky.social, William Beach, & @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social will...
#EconSky

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Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 21h

In the last 70 years, federal jobs fell from 4.5% of all employment to below 2%.

Civil servants aren't what's driving government debt, and firing them won't address it.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1N1kt

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Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 1d

So Mark Hamill follows me (SO COOL), and the way I found that out was he liked a tweet of mine where I was fist pumping cause Jeri Ryan had retweeted me

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Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 1d

Truly can’t believe they took this quote
www.thebulwark.com/p/the-other-...

"They keep saying as loudly as possible, we're going to do more illegal partisan impoundments, and I think Democrats are seeing this and it just reinforces their sense they can't negotiate with these guys," Bobby Kogan, senior director of federal budget policy at the Center for American Progress, told me. "It's Darth Vader saying 'I have altered the deal, pray I don't alter it any further'—again and again and again."

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Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 1d

I remember canvassing in 2018, talking to a Republican who was undecided.

I said Rs had nearly kicked millions off their health insurance and would try again if they won.

“They said they weren’t actually cutting health care” he said to me, clearly in partial disbelief but wishing it were true.

Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 1d

"I voted for Trump. I didn't expect [him to cut health care.]"

Longtime Florida insurance agent Alan Reynolds, 65, predicts many of his customers will allow their policies to lapse when the price hikes become clear. An independent who leans conservative, Reynolds, of Port St. Lucie, called Obamacare flawed but said he favors the continuation of the enhanced subsidies “and not pulling the rug out from under people.”

His family is also affected. The loss of his wife’s subsidy means she is likely to pay about $1,200 or more each month, up from about $500 in 2024, he said. “I voted for Trump,” Reynolds said. “I didn’t expect this.”

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Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 1d

"I voted for Trump. I didn't expect [him to cut health care.]"

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Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 1d

Later on in the video, Vance lies and says they have to do mass firings to preserve resources to use in other parts of the govt.

This is not how it works. The people fired didn’t have any funding, so firing them doesn’t free up any money.

They fired people because they want to and lied about it.

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 1d

BRENNAN: CBS confirmed the Trump administration rescinded the layoffs of CDC scientists. Some were involved with the federal measles response. How does a mistake like this happen?

VANCE: The govt shutdown inevitably leads to some chaos. It happened because of Schumer

B: But this was a WH decision

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Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 1d

Not the point, but earlier in the video Vance lies about WIC being shut down (it isn’t). I know we just sort of shrug, but it’s honestly breathtaking how frequently the vice president of these United States lies.

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 1d

STEPHANOPOULOS: I didn't insinuate anything. I asked you whether Tom Homan accepted $50k as was heard on an audio tape recorded by the FBI in September 2024. You did not answer the question. Thank you for your time.

VANCE: No, George, I sai--

STEPHANOPOULOS: We'll be right back

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Reposted by Bobby Kogan

LongTime🤓FirstTime👨‍💻 @longtimehistory.bsky.social · 2d

ICE secretly kidnap autistic boy during bathroom break—never notify parents.

Mother reported him missing a week ago—turns out ICE had him detained the whole time.

He was helping sell fruit and asked to go to the restroom—by the time she was done helping a customer he was gone.

Houston, Texas

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Reposted by Bobby Kogan

Sara Partridge, PhD @sarapartridge.bsky.social · 2d

There are reports that the *entire* office of special education at the US Dept of Education has been cut. These hardworking folks ensure kids with disabilities get equal access to a quality education.

America’s children deserve better than this.

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Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 2d

I think it would be a huge public service if major media outlets interviewed people given RIF notices and let them explain in detail what their jobs are so that people can judge for themselves whether these positions are wasteful like Trump and Vought claim or whether they help the country prosper.

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Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 3d

Simply could not be more clear that the firings have nothing to do with the shutdown. It’s just people Trump and Vought have been planning to fire for a very long.

Cady Stanton @cady_stanton • 52m
Seeing that some impacted workers who were not furloughed are receiving RIF notices - employees that are designated as essential during a shutdown, but are now being laid off.

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Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 3d

Thune is lying here. Trump and Vought didn’t “hold off for as long as they could” because shutdowns don’t force people to be fired. No one was ever fired in any of the previous shutdowns in history. They fired a bunch of people because they wanted to — like they’re been planning since February.

Claudia Grisales @cgrisales.bsky.social · 3d

Senate Majority Leader John Thune responds to OMB head Russ Vought’s post “the RIFs have begun,” telling @jordainc.bsky.social and I:

“Well… I think they held off for as long as they could.”

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Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 3d

🥹💜

Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 3d

Three key points:
1) The admin has been planning mass firings to begin in October since February
2) The work necessary to carry out mass firings is illegal during a shutdown, violating the Antideficiency Act, which carries a criminal penalty
3) This harms America, ridding us of talent and expertise

Russ Vought v @russvought
The RIFs have begun.
12:27 PM • 10/10/25 • 15K Views

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Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 3d

Republicans keep insisting that they’re pushing a “clean CR” while promising to unilaterally cut spending below agreed-to levels however they want with zero Democratic input.

Eleanor Mueller @Eleanor_Mueller
X.com
00 On this press call with the House Freedom Caucus, Johnson tells reporters: "We worked on rescissions, and there'll be more of that, we expect, in the days ahead."
11:12 AM • 10/10/25 • 28K Views

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Reposted by Bobby Kogan

Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 4d

"30-year-old conservative lawyer and activist who is Trump’s nominee to lead the Office of Special Counsel, which deals with federal employee whistleblower complaints and discrimination" cancelled his colleague's hotel room so she would be forced to stay with him.
www.politico.com/news/2025/10...

In late July, Paul Ingrassia, the White House liaison for the Department of Homeland Security, arrived at a Ritz-Carlton in Orlando with a lower-ranking female colleague and others from their department. When the group reached the front desk, the woman learned she didn’t have a hotel room.

Ingrassia then informed her that she would be staying with him, according to five administration officials familiar with the episode. Eventually the woman discovered that Ingrassia had arranged ahead of time to have her hotel room canceled so she would have to stay with him, three of those officials said.

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Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 4d

Could not be more clear the president wishes he had unilateral power to imprison people, like in an absolute monarchy

He doesn’t so instead he’s forcing the govt to bring charges against his enemies because he wants vengeance

Nakedly corrupt, the sort of thing that necessitates removal from office

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Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 4d

Ds nuked the non-SCOTUS judicial filibuster under Reid in 2013 because Rs categorically refused to fill the vacancies on the DC circuit. Rs use that as their excuse, since Ds went first. But McConnell had been calling to nuke the judicial filibuster (and NOT the legislative filibuster) since the 90s

Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 4d

Senate Republicans did two small nukes earlier this year — plus functionally nuked the legislative filibuster. One was on environmental regs, one was on nominees, and one was to pass legislation with 51 votes that’d normally take 60.

The current Senate GOP goes nuclear whenever they really want to.

00 freshman GOP senator floating going nuclear over government funding
Acyn
@Acyn • 14h
Moreno: My point of view would be this: We have almost all Republicans on board. Maybe it's time to think about the filibuster. You say look, the Democrats would have done it. Let's just vote with Republicans. We got 52 Republicans. Let's go. And let's open the government. It may Show more

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Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 4d

Mike Johnson with a jacket that says Trump Vance and photoshopped to also say “this has nothing to do with Epstein”

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Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 5d

Here's the full comparison for people who want.

The 2025 interest line might be off by a little because CBO didn't provide enough information to that right. And either the interest or program spending might be slightly wrong for 2024 because CBO didn't provide enough info.

2024 2024 adjusted for timing shifts 2025 (January estimate) 2025 (January estimate, adjusted to fix issues) 2025 CBO estimate 2025 CBO estimate (remove student loan one-time revaluation) 2025 (adjusted for student loans) vs. 2025 projection (adjusted to fix issues)
Spending 6735 6808 7028 7061 7035 7166 105
Program spending 5854 5927 6076 6108 6074 6205 97
Interest 881 881 952 953 961 961 9
Revenue 4918 4918 5163 5163 5226 5226 63
Primary deficit 936 1009 913 945 848 979 34
Total deficit 1817 1889 1865 1898 1809 1940 42

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Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 5d

When you do those adjustments, you get this, which compares what we thought 2025 was going to be before Trump took office to what actually happened (adjusting for the student loans)

2025 (January estimate, adjusted to fix issues) 2025 CBO estimate (remove student loan one-time revaluation) 2025 (adjusted for student loans) vs. 2025 projection (adjusted to fix issues)
Spending 7061 7166 105
Program spending 6108 6205 97
Interest 953 961 9
Revenue 5163 5226 63
Primary deficit 945 979 34
Total deficit 1898 1940 42

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Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 5d

But this one-time change in the valuation of our outstanding student loan portfolio is not the same as "Donald Trump just cut spending $131 billion this year." It makes it an apples-to-oranges comparison, so you should adjust for it.

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