Matt Darling
@besttrousers.bsky.social
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besttrousers.bsky.social
To @picklesofthecanoe.bsky.social's point, I don't think this was a very large increase such that it explains shifts in voting?

(Need to stick to inflation alone, not as a percent of incomes)
besttrousers.bsky.social
Right - groceries alone was 5.86% of income in 2020 ($4,942/$84,352) and 5.95% of income in 2024 ($6,053
/$101,805).
besttrousers.bsky.social
11.9% in 2020, 12.9% in 2023 (2024 numbers don't come out for two weeks).
Reposted by Matt Darling
ericmgarcia.bsky.social
My parents were Republicans because George H.W Bush signed the Americans with Disabilites Act and the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act. A generation of people with disabilities went to college, got jobs and lived independently because of IDEA.
abcnews.go.com/Politics/spe...
Special education staff decimated after Trump administration shutdown firings: Sources
The nation’s special education services have been significantly damaged after Fridays’s mass layoffs within the Department of Education, sources told ABC News.
abcnews.go.com
besttrousers.bsky.social
What metric are you using? That's hard to reconcile with the Piketty wealth data.
besttrousers.bsky.social
The decline in the middle class is driven entirely by more people being rich.
besttrousers.bsky.social
No RCT evidence confirmed this.
besttrousers.bsky.social
Ok, but I would do this if I taught 3rd grade.
besttrousers.bsky.social
Ha - perhaps less applicable to Ross Douthat though.
besttrousers.bsky.social
But is the reason made up?
Reposted by Matt Darling
samthorpe.bsky.social
Incredibly useful new story by @jburnmurdoch.ft.com on the 'crisis' for young college grads. Most analyses compare mid-20s workers with/without a degree. But as John points out, the relevant comparison group is actually *new entrants* with/without a degree - most non-degree workers enter at 18-19.
What the graduate unemployment story gets wrong
People with a degree are faring better, not worse than their non-graduate counterparts
www.ft.com
besttrousers.bsky.social
No; I don't think it did this either!

Like it just failed at the stated goal and then people pretended that it had an outcome with different harder to measure outcomes.
besttrousers.bsky.social
These modeled outcomes seem reasonable - arguably the actual effects have been worse (though hard to understand counterfactual)

budgetlab.yale.edu/research/sta...
besttrousers.bsky.social
(I'm sure talking head pundits predicted disaster, but I bet that's due to a *lack* of economic understanding, not a surfeit!)
besttrousers.bsky.social
Wait, but what economists *specifically*?

Like I think most economists have been concerned about the tariffs but have not said they will lead to inflation (FOMC moves last) or cause a recession (that's not how recession work!).
besttrousers.bsky.social
Open to alternative suggestions, but I can't think of any.
besttrousers.bsky.social
We went from "reduce spending by $2 trillion" to "spending increased by $400 billion."
besttrousers.bsky.social
It's so funny that people copy this, given that DOGE was basically the least effective domestic US policy initiative of all time.
oliverdarcy.bsky.social
News: Bari Weiss just sent a memo to staffers at CBS News asking them to produce a memo explaining "how you spend your working hours—and ideally, what you've made (or are making) that you're most proud of."

One CBS News staffer puts it like this to me: "We just got Elon Musked."
Reposted by Matt Darling
lastpositivist.bsky.social
Genuinely love that because of Modernity I can get a cute little taxi just for my burrito. It's so cute, kawaii!
Reposted by Matt Darling
donmoyn.bsky.social
Immigrant Nobel Prize winners exiting the United States
florianscheuer.bsky.social
I am delighted to share that Nobel laureates Esther Duflo and Abhijit Banerjee will join our Department of Economics @econ.uzh.ch at the University of Zurich on July 1, 2026, as Lemann Foundation Professors of Economics.

🧵 1/7
Reposted by Matt Darling
econberger.bsky.social
yikes
econberger.bsky.social
Lots of federal government workers filing initial claims as the shutdown got started. I imagine their CC will spike next week.