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Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 2d

I look forward to tracking the work that @fiftyplusone.news will be doing, but people who are interested in public opinion should read the good work that is being done *within* individual polls in addition to seeing how they fit in the big picture.

Let's not lose the trees for the forest.

5/5

Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 2d

The American National Election Study (the longest running study of voters with waves going back nearly 80 years) very rarely does "well" in predicting the result of the election, but it is an incredibly valuable resource for understanding how public opinion has shifted in the post-WWII era

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Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 2d

that the primary purpose of opinion polling is to predict the result of a particular election, and when there are high-profile "misses" on this front (e.g. the overconfident projections from polling aggregators in 2016), it undermines the public's confidence in the whole enterprise

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Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 2d

This is especially apparent in the various modeling exercises that take place during election season. While it is an interesting exercise to try to forecast the results of the presidential election based on the available polling. I worry that it contributes to the idea

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Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 2d

I think @gelliottmorris.com does great work, and people are justifiably excited about the revival of this project.

My concern with this general enterprise is that it flattens the purpose of polling. Key topline numbers are important, but polls are much more than just grist for the aggregators. 1/

FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 3d

new polls website just dropped fiftyplusone.news

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Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 3d

Here's what I see when looking only at the F2F interviews vs the inclusion of the web sample:

The trend moves in the same direction, but you get a bump of about 5 pp when including the web sample.

A graph comparing the trend in the share of people who say they are "Pure Independents" in the ANES timeseries. The solid line shows the trend for face-to-face interviews, the dashed line shows the trend including web interviews (which were added to the ANES sampling strategy in 2012).

There were no face-to-face interviews in 2020 because of the COVID pandemic, so a dotted line connects the F2F trend between 2016 and 2024 (when face-to-face interviewing resumed).

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Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 3d

Do we know if there was a methodology shift in the 2024 web survey? There have been big mode differences in the past between self administered modes and interviewer mediated surveys

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Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 24d

I'm looking forward to meeting up with a great lineup of survey folks in Minneapolis on Friday celebrating the 80th (!) anniversary of the Minnesota Poll.

I'll be talking about new methods in conducting local and state opinion research.

mnpoll.umn.edu/symposium-3-...

Symposium #3 - The Future of State and Local Opinion Research | Interdisciplinary Collaborative Workshop: Eighty Years of the Minnesota Poll

mnpoll.umn.edu

Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 26d

I've heard some objections to this approach based on accessibility (e.g. speech-to-text uses the same paste functions). Have you given any thought to how to allow valid uses of pasting?

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Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 28d

Serving sizes 🤝 polling estimates

Better when rounded

A picture of the nutrition label of the chimichurri container with an implausible precise number of servings of 45.36

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Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · Sep 5

Does "Department of War" branding make it easier for Dems to cut defense spending?

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Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · Aug 30

This was excellent (even though I almost couldn't make out the words toward the end through the tears welling up). An extraordinarily beautiful book about grief and rememberance.

@writerpoetjohn.bsky.social @thomasdocherty.bsky.social

The Bear Shaped Hole by John and Thomas Dougherty

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Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · Aug 25

I think between 200 and 300 people

Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · Jul 4

Is someone working on updating Pete Seger's "What a friend we have in Congress" to fit our current situation? (original lyrics in the alt text)

www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSEI...

Pete Seeger as an excuse to post the lyrics in alt text:

[Verse 1]
What a friend we have in congress
Who will guard our every shore
Spend three quarters of our taxes
Getting ready for the war

[Verse 2]
Guns will make our coastline bristle
And we have to fill the skies
Full of planes and missiles
They'll be paid for by and by

[Verse 3]
Have you noticed all the progress
In our mighty airborne fleet?
By the time a plane's adopted
It's already obsolete

[Verse 4]
Modern bombs are sure to carry
Loads of glory, joy and thrills
What a privilege to bury
All the death our money kills

[Verse 5]
There's no factory profit brothers
And we have to do or die
One improvement then another
They'll be paid for by and by

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Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · Jun 26

Pew's validated voter report should be required reading for folks interested in US politics

Pew Research Center @pewresearch.org · Jun 26

NEW: After each U.S. election, we match respondents from our nationally representative American Trends panel to official state voting records to verify who actually turned out to vote (or didn’t) to produce a comprehensive analysis of precisely who voted and how they voted. A few key points (🧵👇):

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Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · Jun 14

#nokings Windsor, CO

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Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · May 12

How well do people really understand the politics of their own neighborhoods?

On Thursday, May 15, from 4:30–6:00 PM, my colleague Alexis Essa and I will present new findings from YouGov at the AAPOR Annual Conference in St. Louis.

I hope to see folks there at #AAPOR2025.

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Reposted by Brad Jones

Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · May 10

🚨 Call for all AAPOR board gamers! 🚨
GAMEPOR is finally officially on the conference schedule, now named "Longitudinal Leisure Study (with board games)".
Bring your favorite (and luggage friendly) board games to the conference and come join us for an epic game night! 🎲
#AAPOR @aapor.bsky.social

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Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · May 10

Horton is obviously the birth father - the baby emerges from the egg with a trunk and elephant ears. It gestated for 51 weeks ... the child didn't get to be that way from Horton sitting on the egg

www.bbcearth.com/news/elephan...

www.bbcearth.com

Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · May 10

Think about it... we're told the story from Horton's perspective who is clearly an unreliable narrator. Wise Mayzie knows that the only way she can get him invested in the child is to have him contribute how he can -- even at the expense of her own reputation.

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Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · May 10

On my 500th reading of "Horton Hatches the Egg," I'm solidly convinced that the correct interpretation of the story is that of a wise mother doing everything she can to get her child's absentee father involved with its life.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horton_...

Horton Hatches the Egg - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

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Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · Apr 27

My five year old destroyed me the other day as I was explaining something: "I think you are talking to yourself, dad"

Hank Green @hankgreen.bsky.social · Apr 26

Eight year old: Who is the pope?

Me: Begins to explain…

Eight year old, interrupting: “It turns out I don’t care about that.”

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Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · Apr 16

NPORS is a fantastic resource and public service.

Andrew Mercer @awmercer.bsky.social · Apr 16

Since this ended up being a whole thread, I figure I’ll share it more broadly. Here’s a brief explainer on why we interview people online and with paper questionnaires for our annual National Public Opinion Reference Survey (aka NPORS).

Andrew Mercer @awmercer.bsky.social · Apr 16

Indeed I know rather a lot about NPORS! Yes, if you just compare the web and mail respondents in NPORS (or any survey with a similar mail/web design) there are large differences by mode. This is expected and actually the whole point of the design.

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Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · Apr 6

This one was mine

My sign: Coloradans against kakistocracy (government by the worst people)

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Reposted by Brad Jones

egc.bsky.social @egc.bsky.social · Apr 5

HANDS OFF FORT COLLINS COLORADO

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