Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Dan Turner @dtturner.bsky.social · 15d

Congratulations Nick!

Reposted by Dan Turner

Sam Alvis @samalvis.bsky.social · Jun 5

Why even bother with long-run economic change & industrial policy if you don't get the chance to see it through?

Biden went all in on economic change, giving other progressives confidence to back things like industrial policy. But after the Democrats loss many are questioning whether it's worth it?

Institute for Public Policy Research @ippr.org · Jun 5

🗽 | NEW REPORT: Why are progressives losing elections, even when the economy is growing? We went to Washington to speak to Biden's former White House staff and other officials to find out where it all went wrong.

Read here: www.ippr.org/articles/its...

1 11 10

Dan Turner @dtturner.bsky.social · May 20

Great to contribute to Sam’s excellent Substack today, setting out some of the arguments from our recent working paper on Bidenomics and what it might mean for the U.K. 👇

Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · May 20

New post just out:

"Running Hot"

A guest post today from Ed Balls (yes that one) + his research colleague Dan Turner.

It looks at why the US economy has grown so much faster than the UK's (pre-Trump). And what Rachel Reeves can learn from that.

(Free to read)

open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/r...

Running Hot

What Rachel Reeves can learn from the Biden administration

open.substack.com

5

Dan Turner @dtturner.bsky.social · Apr 16

Any recommendations on role of wealth effects in driving recent (post-2008) US growth?

Struck that average real consumption is up about a third (left) while real terms wealth is up about 80% since 2009 (right). Or $4trn extra C for $77bn extra wealth (all real)

1

Dan Turner @dtturner.bsky.social · Apr 14

Work from Deming, Ong and Summers late last year is also good on suggestive evidence for the US on tech driving wider creative destruction in the US: www.economicstrategygroup.org/wp-content/u...

www.economicstrategygroup.org

1

Dan Turner @dtturner.bsky.social · Apr 14

Great to see coverage of our new working paper in Martin Wolf's FT column today: www.ft.com/content/7c0c...

Full paper available here: www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/mrcb...

Global turmoil makes Britain’s productivity predicament even worse

The situation is dire and only active policymaking is going to make a difference

www.ft.com

1

Dan Turner @dtturner.bsky.social · Apr 8

11/ Finally—it’s impossible to do justice to the richness of the interviews in a thread, including from Cecelia Rouse,
@jasonfurman.bsky.social, @michaelrstrain.bsky.social, Alejandra Y Castillo, @jonasnahm.com and Jonah Wagner.

You can read each in full here: sites.harvard.edu/uk-regional-...

Bidenomics – Britain's growing regional divides

sites.harvard.edu

1

Dan Turner @dtturner.bsky.social · Apr 8

10/ Thanks to @harvardbizgov.bsky.social and
and @strandgroup.bsky.social for supporting the project—and for hosting us at our US launch (with
@stephanomics.bsky.social) and tonight’s UK launch at KCL with Martin Wolf, Andy Haldane, and Shriti Vadera.

US launch: www.youtube.com/channel/UCBI...

M-RCBG_Harvard

The mission of the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government is to advance the state of knowledge and policy analysis concerning some of society’s most challenging problems at the interface ...

www.youtube.com

1

Dan Turner @dtturner.bsky.social · Apr 8

9/ That last point—communication—touches on the elephant in the room: if there’s lots to learn from Biden’s admin, can we also learn from the Dems’ failure to secure re-election?

1 3

Dan Turner @dtturner.bsky.social · Apr 8

8/ That gives us our “lessons for the UK on a slide”:

1 3

Dan Turner @dtturner.bsky.social · Apr 8

7/ Finally, we look at Biden’s supply-side agenda: lessons on industrial policy, place-based policy, protectionism, and paths not taken (like the early care economy push)—as Gene Sperling (L), @briancdeese.bsky.social, and @jaredb-econ.bsky.social set out in their interviews.

1 1 2

Dan Turner @dtturner.bsky.social · Apr 8

6/ Third, the US has long outperformed the UK/Europe on productivity—and that gap’s been growing since the mid-2010s. We cite Erixon, Guinea and du Roy, and Deming, Summers & Ong on the return of US TFP growth, and the UK’s tech gap (so far) relative to US.

1 1

Dan Turner @dtturner.bsky.social · Apr 8

5/ As
@adamposen.bsky.social (L) noted, many Dems and allies worried in early 2021 about the downsides of job churn. But @hboushey.bsky.social, @juliesulabor.bsky.social and others showed how supports (expanded UI, pro-worker orders) helped raise both wages and productivity.

1 3

Dan Turner @dtturner.bsky.social · Apr 8

4/ Second, we think the inflation debate can obscure the real lesson: the value of dynamism and flexibility when you “run the economy hot.” Job creation/destruction in the US pulled even further ahead of the UK post-pandemic.

1 2

Dan Turner @dtturner.bsky.social · Apr 8

3/ First, our interviewees differed on whether the political cost of the American Rescue Plan outweighed the economic gains (jobs, productivity). No one disputed that, at the margin, it nudged up inflation in ‘21/’22. See
@larrysummers.bsky.social (L) and Lael Brainard (R):

1

Dan Turner @dtturner.bsky.social · Apr 8

2/ Our paper is built around 4 conclusions—on inflation, dynamism, growth, and industrial policy—that my coauthors (@huwspencer.bsky.social, Vidit Doshi, @juliapamilih.bsky.social, @officialedballs.bsky.social) and I drew from the interviews. We apply them to Britain—an economy with v dif challenges

1 1

Dan Turner @dtturner.bsky.social · Apr 8

1/ Today, we publish a new working paper: what should the UK learn from Bidenomics?

At its core are 15 interviews—including 5 former Council of Economic Advisers members (3 of them Chairs), 4 former NEC Directors & 2 former Cabinet members.

www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/mrcb...

What should the UK learn from “Bidenomics”?

www.hks.harvard.edu

1 7 10

Reposted by Dan Turner

David Lawrence @davidlawrenceuk.bsky.social · Apr 3

Here is what I've been working on for the last few months: we are launching the Centre for British Progress to make the progressive case for growth.

Our founding essay describes how Britain once drove our collective progress, and how we must rediscover this dynamism.

Centre for British Progress @britishprogress.org · Apr 3

💫 We’re launching the Centre for British Progress

Our founding essay: Rediscovering British Progress is a case for growth that drives shared progress, rooted in Britain's values and industrial heritage.

It all starts with a postcard from 1870 👇

britishprogress.org/articles/red...

Cover of the essay Rediscovering British Progress available at https://britishprogress.org/articles/rediscovering-british-progress

3 3

Reposted by Dan Turner

Ian Dunt @iandunt.bsky.social · Mar 28

This is mortifying. It's the kind of calculation you would normally make about a dictatorship.

open.substack.com/pub/christin...

80 570 2.1K

Dan Turner @dtturner.bsky.social · Mar 26

OBR still leading the pack for optimism about real GDP in 2029, even after downward revisions; and RDEL growth path has become *more* front-loaded over the parliament - both should raise eyebrows about whether today's forecast will survive contact with (i) reality and (ii) politics

Reposted by Dan Turner

David A. Jaeger (econ) @davidajaeger.bsky.social · Feb 24

It's a very sad day. Just notified that @iza.org is closing its doors as of 31 December 2025. At a time when labor is under attack and technological change moves at an ever-faster pace, I can't help but think that this is a short-sighted decision. My heart goes out to those folks who work there.

12 110 310

Reposted by Dan Turner

The Policy Institute @policyatkings.bsky.social · Feb 11

EVENT: What next for devolution and regional growth?

Join us for the inaugural @faerfield.bsky.social lecture with Dr Nik Johnson, @officialedballs.bsky.social, Nora Senior CBE,
@dtturner.bsky.social & @bobbyduffy.bsky.social

Register your interest in attending ➡️ docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...

1 3 2

Dan Turner @dtturner.bsky.social · Jan 2

Great stuff Aveek - subscribed!

1 1

Reposted by Dan Turner

Jack Newman @jacknewman.bsky.social · Dec 20

▶️ Here's a 1-minute summary of our new paper showing the places being left behind by English devolution.

📄 The Intersection of Productivity and Governance Capacity in Spatial Inequality: The Case of England’s Devolution Periphery

👥 Jack Newman & Charlotte Hoole

🖇️ doi.org/10.1080/2158...

1 2 8

Dan Turner @dtturner.bsky.social · Dec 16

Some notable absences (changes to voting system, so I guess they'll keep FPTP @jacknewman.bsky.social? And little on democracy/community engagement)...

And some issues deferred (pledges a local media strategy, a refrshed New Deal for Communities, and local gov-led public service reform)

1