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Reposted by Anthony Edwards

National Weather Service @nws.noaa.gov · 11h

Deep tropical moisture surging into the Southwest U.S. will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms capable of producing flash flooding the next several days. For more info, visit www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/index.php#pa...

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Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 13h

The Weather Prediction Center forecasts heavy rain in Northern California on Monday, Oct. 13. The risk of heavy rain moves to the Central Coast and parts of coastal Southern California on Tuesday, Oct. 14. Heavy precipitation, snow or a rain-snow mix, is forecast in the Sierra Nevada both days.

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Reposted by Anthony Edwards

National Hurricane Center - Eastern Pacific Alerts (UNOFFICIAL) @nhc-epac.nws-bot.us · 13h

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Storm Priscilla Advisory Number 21 issued at Thu, 09 Oct 2025 20:43:55 +0000
...SIGNIFICANT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
Additional Details Here.

618 WTPZ31 KNHC 092043TCPEP1 BULLETINTropical Storm Priscilla Advisory Number 21NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025200 PM MST Thu Oct 09 2025 ...SIGNIFICANT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITEDSTATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...24.4N 114.9WABOUT 165 MI...265 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICOMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS-------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK----------------------At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Priscilla waslocated near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 114.9 West. Priscilla is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turntoward the north is anticipated later today and tonight. On theforecast track, the center of Priscilla is expected to moveparallel to, but offshore of, the coast of Baja California Sur. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.Weakening is forecast, and Priscilla is expected to become apost-tropical cyclone by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND---------------------- RAINFALL: As Priscilla moves off the west coast of Baja California, up to an inch of rain is expected across the Baja California peninsula. For the southwestern United States, 2 to 4 inches of rain, with local storm total maxima to 6 inches, are expected acrossportions of central and northern Arizona, southern Utah, and southwest Colorado through Saturday. Flash flooding is likely in portions of central Arizona, with scattered areas of flash flooding expected across the remainder of Arizona, southern Utah, southwest Colorado, and far northwest New Mexico. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available athurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Large swells generated by Priscilla are affecting the Pacificcoast of Baja California Sur as well as portions of coastalsouthwestern and west-central Mexico. These swells are likely tocause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, in additionto some coastal flooding. Please consult products from your localweather office. NEXT ADVISORY-------------Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm Priscilla 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image

Tropical Storm Priscilla 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities

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Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 13h

Thanks I hate it.

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Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 14h

A little fujiwara? 🌀🕺🌀

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Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 17h

A burned Bible and ChatGPT messages: Chilling details of the case against man charged with starting Palisades Fire www.sfchronicle.com/california-w...

A burned Bible and ChatGPT messages: Chilling details of the case against man charged with starting Palisades Fire

Investigators allege Uber driver Jonathan Rinderknecht lit a fire early New Year’s Day that was extinguished but smoldering and rekindled days later.

www.sfchronicle.com

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Reposted by Anthony Edwards

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 1d

Highly unusual situation approaching western Colorado with the moisture from Hurricane Priscilla. Grand Junction has never had precipitable water over an inch (25mm) so late in the year, but looks like it will be near that level on both Fri & Sat. Six standard deviations above average! #cowx 1/2

Global Ensemble Forecast System mean precipitable water and 700-mb winds valid on Saturday morning, 11 October 2025. A big plume of moisture will be transported into the southwest US ahead of decaying Hurricane Priscilla. From https://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/weather/ens.php

Standardized anomaly of precipitable water from the ECWMF ensemble mean on Saturday morning, 11 October 2025. It shows a broad swath of greater than +3 standard deviations in the western US. From https://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/weather/ecmwf.php

Ensemble forecast plume showing precipitable water at Grand Junction, Colorado in the members of the ECWMF ensemble. Values are predicted to be around 25-30 mm with high confidence on Friday 10 October through Saturday 11 October, far above the 90th percentile for the date. From https://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/weather/ecmwf.php

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Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 19h

"Of note - the overall synoptic pattern has notable parallels to early October 2018, when remnants of Hurricane Rosa moved into the Great Basin and prompted extensive flash flood impacts across central Arizona."
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov#page=ero

Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Home Page

www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

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Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 19h

The Weather Prediction Center warns of a moderate risk of excessive rainfall leading to rapid onset flooding in Arizona tomorrow (Friday, Oct. 10). If this level is maintained, it would be the first time in more than two years the agency has issued a moderate ERO in AZ. #AZwx

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Reposted by Anthony Edwards

Paul Heggen @paulkpix.bsky.social · 1d

On Monday, our forecast for next week showed partly cloudy skies. 24 hours later, that had changed to a 70+% chance of rain!

What changed? I got a little nerdy in our 11pm newscast last night to explain how everything in the atmosphere is connected... #CAwx

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Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 1d

A butterfly flaps its wings!

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Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 1d

Some early rain and snow forecast totals from the National Weather Service... the National Blend of Models is bullish on feet of snow in the Sierra Nevada. Very unusual for mid-October.

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Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 1d

This is a very complex forecast ... "if a butterfly flaps its wings" effect as a typhoon on the other side of the world excites the storm track over the Pacific Ocean and eventually impacts California weather
bsky.app/profile/edwa...

Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 3d

Energy from Typhoon Halong near Japan may amplify the jet steam (excite the storm track) across the Northern Pacific / western North America this weekend. Scientifically known as tropical cyclone recurvature & extratropical transition.
Maps: @aliciambentley.bsky.social

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Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 1d

The Bay Area's rainiest day since last winter is possible next week as energy from a recurving West Pacific typhoon dislodges cold air from Canada and whips up a storm along the West Coast. The freezing level could fall as low as 5,000 feet, priming the Sierra for potential snow, including Tahoe.

Powerful typhoon is set to trigger an unusually strong California storm

San Francisco’s rainiest day since last winter is possible next week as energy from a recurving West Pacific typhoon dislodges cold air from Canada and whips up a storm along the West Coast.

www.sfchronicle.com

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Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 1d

This extratropical transition will perturb the jet stream and could cause a major early-season rain and snowstorm in California next week. Stay tuned! #CAwx

Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 3d

Energy from Typhoon Halong near Japan may amplify the jet steam (excite the storm track) across the Northern Pacific / western North America this weekend. Scientifically known as tropical cyclone recurvature & extratropical transition.
Maps: @aliciambentley.bsky.social

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Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 1d

Shoutout to @sfchronicle.com investigative reporter @mgafni.bsky.social and climate reporter @jjreport.bsky.social

Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · Jan 12

NEW: Rekindling embers from smoldering New Year’s Day fireworks blaze possible cause of deadly Palisades Fire, according to @sfchronicle.com reporting.

www.sfchronicle.com/california-w...

Was the Palisades Fire started by a rekindling of a blaze from New Year’s Day?

Firefighters stopped a fire from reaching Pacific Palisades before dawn on New Year’s Day. Could high winds have re-ignited undetected embers six days later?

www.sfchronicle.com

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Reposted by Anthony Edwards

Rick Thoman @alaskawx.bsky.social · 1d

High risk for extreme winds and coastal flooding Sunday and Monday for the northern and central Alaska Bering Sea coast from ex-typhoon Halong. There is still uncertainty, but serious impacts are likely somewhere south of the Bering Strait,. #akwx #ExtremeWeather @hanners64n.bsky.social

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Reposted by Anthony Edwards

Philippe Papin @pppapin.bsky.social · 1d

Love that little patch of cirrus that just accidentally drifted into the eye of #Halong all by its lonesome. Absolutely gorgeous photos. 📸 🛰️

WeatherMatrix @weathermatrix.bsky.social · 1d

More amazing ISS astronaut images, this time of Typhoon Halong yesterday. x.com/Astro_Kimiya...

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Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 1d

Tropical Storm Jerry strengthens, remnants of Hurricane Priscilla could soak southwest U.S. www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston...

Tropical Storm Jerry strengthens, remnants of Priscilla to soak southwest U.S.

Tropical Storm Jerry could become a hurricane in the Atlantic as Priscilla brings rain, surf, and flooding risks to Baja California in Mexico.

www.houstonchronicle.com

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Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 3d

While impactful weather is likely from this pattern early next week, Northern Californians should expect significant changes to the forecast through the next seven days. Shifts could turn warmer/drier or potentially colder/wetter, depending on where the dip in the storm track goes.

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Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 3d

You're welcome! That's very kind of you to say :)

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Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 3d

Labor Day 2020 wildfires in the Pacific Northwest were an example of the extreme weather that can occur downstream from a series of recurving typhoons

Three Western Pacific Typhoons Strengthened Fire Weather in the Recent Northwest U.S. Conflagration

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

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Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 3d

Model predictability takes a hit from recurving typhoons so expect some swings in forecasts the next few days
fractal.wordpress.ncsu.edu/category/rec...

recurving typhoons | Tropical Dynamics

fractal.wordpress.ncsu.edu

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Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 3d

An early season cold air outbreak (not Arctic, but relatively cold) is possible throughout the West Next week as the jet stream winds become meridional (north to south)

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Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 3d

Energy from Typhoon Halong near Japan may amplify the jet steam (excite the storm track) across the Northern Pacific / western North America this weekend. Scientifically known as tropical cyclone recurvature & extratropical transition.
Maps: @aliciambentley.bsky.social

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