Aleksandar Hummel
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Aleksandar Hummel
@haleksandar.bsky.social
120 followers 1 following 3.7K posts
Beach bum. 🏖️ Blog: linktr.ee/haleksandar Somewhat funny, Entirely serious. Opinions my own.
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Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · Sep 24
I present my findings on the state of the modern economy as intertwined with #bitcoin and #cryptocurrency in general. I find a liquidity band systemisation and tie the under-performance of the economy to #inequality, as #BTC a pushed product. I'll occasionally post below in relation. #Fed #Econsky
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Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 2h
Economy is to rely on investing/consuming domestically the cash that'd otherwise be spent toward imports, count on the crypto-inflationary impulse and - AI. If this were late 1987 in Japan or early 2005 in the US there are more than few obstacles before we can successfully *bubble* to 1990 or 2007.
Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 2h
US is to the contrary just beginning to pass-through the price increases on to consumers. It's a two track economy, where income is selectively pocketed by the government - and there may be cockroaches as a result.
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Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 2h
Due to differing dynamics of tax hikes (bsky.app/profile/hale...) UK now seems to be at a spot where these have prevailed over initial impulse of growth and inflation under effect of rate cuts and now faces a need for investment if growth is to take over and deflation not ensue.
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Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 2h
In the UK the jury is out on growth (bsky.app/profile/hale...).
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Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 2h
To repeat, the environment is one in which a perception of crisis necessitates easing and credit expansion supports asset values, including bonds (bsky.app/profile/hale...). Bonds are the chief risk - either through a stall of growth or over-eager inflationary expansion.
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Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 2h
As noted, macro (higher taxes and IR, lower spending) isn't supportive and inflation poses risk (bsky.app/profile/hale...) but all this is dismissed (bsky.app/profile/hale...).
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Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 2h
In the real world, then, earnings growth is slowing, evident in aggregate (bsky.app/profile/hale...), looking at GM (bsky.app/profile/hale...) or banks (bsky.app/profile/hale...).
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Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 2h
Then cites some bloke - founder of "Great Hill Capital" (w/o a SSL certificate, but has a Fox News badge) who says earnings are going to grow double digits, up, up - yes, they are - you bet you sir they will! And wraps up with a dubious number for earnings growth this quarter (13.2%). That's all.
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Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 2h
Expensive cars sell, trickle-down works, people are buying figurines. T-Mobile's up that matters, Verizon down - didn't see that. People fly and stay at Hiltons. This economy is a-mazing! Moer stock and crypto markets grow, please.
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Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 2h
And then last - well, these beats on earnings have come rally as guidance through the summer was doom. (And again, the magnitude of the beats was lower than average.) So he lists GM "blasting earnings" (despite 5% y/y drop), no material pickup in auto loan defaults - Tricolor, come again?
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Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 2h
Secundo "companies aren't bucking either" - despite tariffs cost. Well, some shares have been under pressure but the truth actually lies in bank balance sheets that per recent reports showed increase in corporate borrowing. It's a gap that's being bridged but to where no one knows. Doesn't matter.
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Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 2h
There are three reasons why things will be peachy. Primo "consumer isn't buckling under tariff-related cost increases for things like cars and soda." Wow! Never-mind the whole stories of EV credits expiring and - the fact the #CPI didn't actually show vehicle inflation. Seeing ghosts.
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Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 2h
His expert sentiments are a guiding star! Just below he notes it's apparent tariffs are hurting profits - this decrease in income, though, must be merely a matter of trivia and not something we'd expect to result in real effects - after all we can't think beyond what's put directly in front of us.
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Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 2h
"Not just a little impressive, but /very impressive/. And not just a function of banks" (emphasis his). Again, banks have impressed on y/y basis but completely stalled q/q. Then he is "fascinated" by how "corporate America is wowing" despite "tariffs being in full effect."
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Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 2h
First off he states "may not be showing up in averages but start of earnings season has been impressive." Right. And don't forget how inflated above earnings the S&P is (you'll find this in the first link below).
Figure representing earnings growth of the S&P, with the update provided as of Friday marked with an "x". (Arguably this is a "blended" rate where Sozzi cites exclusively the actual reported values.) Sources. Link: https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_101725B.pdf Link:https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-october-24-2025 Link: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/earnings-live-general-motors-and-ge-raise-guidance-coca-cola-stock-rises-on-earnings-beat-121339934.html
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Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 2h
Going through these scribblings I wonder if this is the level to which American public conception has degenerated? If so, you'll find yourselves very lucky to get off as easily as in the GFC. The whole of this "article" is a pearl, so I'll have at it to start.
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Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 2h
Count on one Brian Sozzi to deliver the ultimate perma-bullish pep talk on behalf of the #APO #stocks and #crypto pushing gazette. How? Well, seeing ghosts, missing things and quoting (other) baseless thought for fact. I'll wrap up expectations here below. #Econsky

finance.yahoo.com/news/earning...
Earnings season off to an impressive start
Hey, earnings season is rocking!
finance.yahoo.com
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Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 5h
In 2019 #Fed ending QT and allowing balance sheet to resume growth sparked a rally. This all the while corporate earnings barely grew. But, markets then were priced much more modestly with regard to earnings compared to today. So I maintain my bearish bias and note rallies are bull traps.
Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 5h
#Crypto markets get absolutely chaffed on good news, and #macro bets stand lopsided as #rates decrease - but I lend a contrarian view. An overly bullish setup can pressure yields up. Every rate cut is a test. Also, if fundamentals weaken a "kerfuffle" in bond markets can tip over the house of cards.
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Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 5h
And #inflation happens when you spend money you print, esp. in absence of growth. (Well, real growth not accumulation of capital that's not consumed abroad while living standards decrease.)
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Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 5h
Now's an opportunity to borrow, further inflate the bubble and spend in support of the economy. Think Nikkei 1987, shift 6m back. There's no special reporting req's for impact loans. #Inflation is the only limit, great we got a "one-time increase in the price level" associated with #tariffs instead.
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Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 5h
Crypto mumbo-jumbo for concentration and market risk - of momentum unwinding violently - things banks can margin (and press "dismiss" on) well. No rules but bank rules, Patt's blatant self-promotion is revolting. But it's arrogant ignorance that stands out as these are the same as of 2005 and MBS.
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Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 5h
»“The risk desk now has to model intraday volatility, exchange liquidity and custodial solvency in RT. Credit committees need frameworks for crypto collateral: dynamic margins, off-chain oracle feeds, and custodial risk insurance - core requirements, not afterthoughts,” [one Samuel] Patt explained.«
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Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 5h
For when it is, it becomes coupled to fortunes of the 'fiat' economies: "fundamental tension".
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Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 5h
No one can effectively short it, since: a) it being a hedge against sovereigns is a fact, b) precisely because the market is huge (and set to grow). But - this is only so for as while as it's *not* levered/supported by obligations in /another/ currency.
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