Aleksandar Hummel
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Aleksandar Hummel
@haleksandar.bsky.social
120 followers 1 following 3.7K posts
Beach bum. 🏖️ Blog: linktr.ee/haleksandar Somewhat funny, Entirely serious. Opinions my own.
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Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · Sep 24
I present my findings on the state of the modern economy as intertwined with #bitcoin and #cryptocurrency in general. I find a liquidity band systemisation and tie the under-performance of the economy to #inequality, as #BTC a pushed product. I'll occasionally post below in relation. #Fed #Econsky
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Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 2h
In 2019 #Fed ending QT and allowing balance sheet to resume growth sparked a rally. This all the while corporate earnings barely grew. But, markets then were priced much more modestly with regard to earnings compared to today. So I maintain my bearish bias and note rallies are bull traps.
Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 2h
#Crypto markets get absolutely chaffed on good news, and #macro bets stand lopsided as #rates decrease - but I lend a contrarian view. An overly bullish setup can pressure yields up. Every rate cut is a test. Also, if fundamentals weaken a "kerfuffle" in bond markets can tip over the house of cards.
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Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 2h
And #inflation happens when you spend money you print, esp. in absence of growth. (Well, real growth not accumulation of capital that's not consumed abroad while living standards decrease.)
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Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 2h
Now's an opportunity to borrow, further inflate the bubble and spend in support of the economy. Think Nikkei 1987, shift 6m back. There's no special reporting req's for impact loans. #Inflation is the only limit, great we got a "one-time increase in the price level" associated with #tariffs instead.
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Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 2h
Crypto mumbo-jumbo for concentration and market risk - of momentum unwinding violently - things banks can margin (and press "dismiss" on) well. No rules but bank rules, Patt's blatant self-promotion is revolting. But it's arrogant ignorance that stands out as these are the same as of 2005 and MBS.
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Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 2h
»“The risk desk now has to model intraday volatility, exchange liquidity and custodial solvency in RT. Credit committees need frameworks for crypto collateral: dynamic margins, off-chain oracle feeds, and custodial risk insurance - core requirements, not afterthoughts,” [one Samuel] Patt explained.«
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Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 2h
For when it is, it becomes coupled to fortunes of the 'fiat' economies: "fundamental tension".
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Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 2h
No one can effectively short it, since: a) it being a hedge against sovereigns is a fact, b) precisely because the market is huge (and set to grow). But - this is only so for as while as it's *not* levered/supported by obligations in /another/ currency.
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Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 2h
#Bitcoin is currently fairly valued if and only if its 50% annual returns are deemed sustainable. Why kill a good trend, when there are nickels to be picked up in front of a steamroller? #BTC is now officially a currency. Congratulations. #Econsky

finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorga...
JPMorgan to Let Clients Use Bitcoin and Ethereum as Collateral for Loans: Report
The bank’s new framework could let institutional clients post crypto as loan collateral under a third-party custody model.
finance.yahoo.com
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Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 2h
Whoever's done this great patriotic act I'm sure isn't counting on loyalty of the troops should push come to shove. And, for #Dems I'd argue a proof that the shutdown is working. Billionaires are chipping in money voluntarily. It's as tax hikes many are hoping for!

www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Mystery Trump supporter gives $130m to US military for paying troops during shutdown
The Treasury Secretary says the US has enough for the next military payday, but can't pay service members after that.
www.bbc.co.uk
Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 2h
Elon shorts $130M of #BTC? If true, market has proved quite resilient. After all, the recent liquidation of close to $20B merely put a dent in - so this is pebbles in comparison.

finance.yahoo.com/news/elon-mu...
Elon Musk's SpaceX Shakes Up Bitcoin Market With $133 Million Transfer
SpaceX, the space exploration company led by Elon Musk, has reportedly transferred over $133 million in Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), causing a stir in the cryptocurrency market. The blockchain analytics fir...
finance.yahoo.com
Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 2h
There was subtlety involved (which actually I'd not have found subtle at all, rather - apparent). The argument is not about an objection to "workers" or anyone else hoarding cash, but rather *only* hoarding cash. If you think disposing of markets is beneficial you're free to explain. Even in caps.
Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 2h
This begs to draw lessons. After all, suppression of reason is rampant and tonality too often seeks to prevail over arguments. Much like they should have been more careful so too should we. But, we should've known better by now and actually done anything of use. So... Eternal glory to you, comrades!
Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 2h
It must be made out not to think of Soviets as fundamentally evil but rather having fallen into a grip of a regime that eventually proved such and committed horrendous acts to maintain power beyond the point when it became apparent the economic concepts on which it relied are defunct.
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Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 2h
The ranks of the fascists were packed thick with true believers, but Soviets failed to be sceptical much more than Western liberals. Nonetheless it's the tension between the blocks and yet prevalent ambiguity to economic theory that leads the conclusion to the characterisation of the Soviet evil.
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Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 2h
These two harmonies in fact were opposing even ahead of the war. The historic context was that the Western Allies had tacitly allowed Hitler to arm - thinking he'd confront the Soviet Union. In this I find the responsibility of peoples: maintaining *rational* scepticism to the nature of government.
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Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 2h
In other words, reading two of the three doctrines for theory it was possible to believe they'd result in freedom - the other had rested on solely on power. It stood for a drive to conquer while opposed by two doctrines that would see the world unite in peace and harmony.
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Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 2h
I find it therefore impossible to consider communism (or the milder #socialism) as an inherently evil ideology. World War 2 was fought between forces who stood for freedom and those who stood against it. In this divide Soviets were on the right side and we share credit for victory with them.
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Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 2h
As a liberal, I look also to the freedom of owning property and of enjoying individual liberties - a society that does not coerce. As a progressive, I don't exclude the possibility one day society may evolve to the point where we'll be free *from* property, a utopia in which all our needs'll be met.
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Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 2h
On the other hand, the very idea of fascism is one of racism and imperialism, of exploitation, war and - death. The very idea of fascism is evil and this is evident in the people that led it as well as the fact these powers saw everyone and everything else as the enemy to be brutally exterminated.
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Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 2h
I believe I speak from the position of the latter-most and as such see freedom as the key substrate the other two lack. But, in this lens as well, I hold it possible to effectively contrast these. It's my understanding the *idea* of communism came about to *free* people from material exploitation.
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Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 2h
Toward this goal we must look at the historic context and the character of the opposing ideologies: #fascism, #communism and #liberalism.
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Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 2h
I posted the words "Soviet evil" and I find it necessary to reflect. This is because if we are to think of Soviets as fundamentally evil then it may become remotely plausible that in fact Nazis were fighting evil and were justified in the atrocities they committed.
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Reposted by Aleksandar Hummel
thefinanceleftist.bsky.social
The Finance Leftist @thefinanceleftist.bsky.social · 2d
Not only is this inherently incorrect. Also no, it shouldn’t. All surplus value should be returned to workers of the organization, not shareholders. Again proving billionaires can all get the same wall 🤡

#Econsky
mcuban.bsky.social Mark Cuban @mcuban.bsky.social · 2d
Billionaires will exist as long as stock markets exist. Should we get rid of the stock market ?
11kelleyk.bsky.social Kelley @11kelleyk.bsky.social · 2d
I’ve followed your appearances on tv & podcasts. I have a question. Do you think billionaires should exist? And, thank you for creating COSTPLUSDRUGS.com. It really helped me when I lost my prescription coverage.
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Aleksandar Hummel @haleksandar.bsky.social · 1d
Ultimately, a society can only be as wealthy as how much it produces (which the Yugoslav socialists knew well) and no amount of financial engineering can result in affordable housing and healthy diets unless there's enough people willing to, in fact, work. Or there are... robots.