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C. Henry @henryhenryhenry.com · 4h

should task a group of models in a loop to generate infinite emergent behavior prompts.

C. Henry @henryhenryhenry.com · 4h

every day I read another paper on "misalignment" or "emergent behavior" in LLMs and, yes, if you smash enough coins into the slot machine it will eventually pay out. this stuff is just p-hacking for arxiv jockeys.

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Matthew Sheffield @matthew.flux.community · 5h

It's basically impossible to earn a living as an independent commentator on the left.

By contrast, Fox and its imitators *constantly* elevate new voices and encourage people to get involved.

They pool their resources. They recycle their dollars and keep them in-network. They crowdfund like crazy.

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Matthew Sheffield @matthew.flux.community · 5h

Charlie Kirk was a terrible person, but his prowess at organizing was astonishing.

Democrats, progressive and moderate, are using tactics from the 1970s.

Republicans spend hundreds of millions on networking, jobs, and outreach every year. Democrats waste their money on obsolete stuff.

flux.community @flux.community · 6h

Charlie Kirk was a religious extremist and an advocate for mass censorship of academics he hated.

But as a political organizer and creator of opportunities for his comrades, there's much that can be learned from what he did. @matthewboedy.bsky.social discusses on the latest Theory of Change

What Charlie Kirk knew

The slain co-founder of Turning Point was a masterful political organizer—and a religious extremist

plus.flux.community

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Flaming Hydra @flaminghydra.com · 1d

TODAY: @littlewow.online on MAGA gossip blogger Houseinhabit. “In the new tradition of other disgraced figures … who swerved to the right, she’s found open arms (and wallets) when no one else would have her.” flaminghydra.com/clout-chasin...

Clout Chasing Will Be the Death of Us All

The New Yorker’s Clare Malone recently published a long profile of Jessica Reed Kraus, the QAnon-adjacent mommy blogger who played an instrumental role in Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.’s successful bid to be...

flaminghydra.com

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Florian Scheuer @florianscheuer.bsky.social · 15h

I am delighted to share that Nobel laureates Esther Duflo and Abhijit Banerjee will join our Department of Economics @econ.uzh.ch at the University of Zurich on July 1, 2026, as Lemann Foundation Professors of Economics.

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Matt Henry @menrywy.bsky.social · 1d

Happy to share my new personal website! I'm available for speaking engagements, esp. related to my academic and post-ac career trajectory as a humanities/social science scholar working in national lab and policy spaces, possibly of interest to grad students/ECRs.

Get in touch!

www.matthenryphd.com

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Json Momoa @jotatx.bsky.social · 1d

@chrischirp.bsky.social is doing a fantastic work here
www.trumpactiontracker.info

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Ken Liu @kyliu99.bsky.social · 1d

The UK edition of ALL THAT WE SEE OR SEEM is out today! I loved working on this novel about how to remain human in the age of ubiquitous AI. Readers in the UK can pick it up wherever you prefer to get your books. @headofzeus.bsky.social

www.bloomsbury.com/uk/all-that-...

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Carl Zimmer @carlzimmer.com · 2d

Today my @nytimes.com colleagues and I are launching a new series called Lost Science. We interview US scientists who can no longer discover something new about our world, thanks to this year‘s cuts. Here is my first interview with a scientist who studied bees and fires. Gift link: nyti.ms/3IWXbiE

nyti.ms

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C. Henry @henryhenryhenry.com · 2d

Post rations. force them to wait in a Scroll breadline. etc.

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C. Henry @henryhenryhenry.com · 2d

starting to think this whole "posting" thing is becoming a problem

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C. Henry @henryhenryhenry.com · 2d

state security force defections are *the* mechanism for successful dissent! get it together y'all

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C. Henry @henryhenryhenry.com · 2d

your post gets at the heart of it. in any civil conflict there is a wide civilian middle that lacks ideological reasons and/or material pressures to become a 'combatant' (broadly defined). but as political violence worsens, they can be persuaded to support the side that can guarantee their security.

Greg Sargent @gregsargent.bsky.social · 2d

Miller has a real theory of the case: A latent majority out there can be sleepwalked into authoritarianism with enough numbing agitprop. Polls show majorities reject the autocratic abuses but Miller plainly thinks voters in the middle lack conviction about any of it.

newrepublic.com/article/2014...

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C. Henry @henryhenryhenry.com · 2d

right now the primary problem I see is that to the mostly uninterested middle it is not immediately clear that the opposition groups to the revanchist Trump regime can 1) guarantee future safety and 2) deliver any future benefits, either social, economic, or political

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C. Henry @henryhenryhenry.com · 2d

Miller's instinct is to propagandize with one hand and repress opposition supporters on the other, and it's a delicate balance that better experts than him have tried to design around and failed (from the U.S. Army/Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Field Manual below)

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C. Henry @henryhenryhenry.com · 2d

this unleashes a thorny collective action problem: civvies want to stay safe, and they'll become more active supporters of the side that can keep them safe; but they also fear future reprisals from the opposition if they support one side too strongly.

How “Free” is Free Riding in Civil Wars?: Violence, Insurgency, and the Collective Action Problem | World Politics | Cambridge Core

How “Free” is Free Riding in Civil Wars?: Violence, Insurgency, and the Collective Action Problem - Volume 59 Issue 2

www.cambridge.org

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C. Henry @henryhenryhenry.com · 2d

your post gets at the heart of it. in any civil conflict there is a wide civilian middle that lacks ideological reasons and/or material pressures to become a 'combatant' (broadly defined). but as political violence worsens, they can be persuaded to support the side that can guarantee their security.

Greg Sargent @gregsargent.bsky.social · 2d

Miller has a real theory of the case: A latent majority out there can be sleepwalked into authoritarianism with enough numbing agitprop. Polls show majorities reject the autocratic abuses but Miller plainly thinks voters in the middle lack conviction about any of it.

newrepublic.com/article/2014...

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Brian Beutler @brianbeutler.bsky.social · 2d

Watching so many people in high places go through the motions of polling and median-voter whispering can make you feel like you're in Bodysnatchers. It's worth a reminder that the typical experience of tyranny is...basically normal life. Which means we have to will ourselves to fight harder.

The Median Experience Of Tyranny

If the politics of tyranny were self-discrediting, we wouldn't need mantras like "never again."

www.offmessage.net

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C. Henry @henryhenryhenry.com · 2d

using dark magic to raise Anthony Downs from the grave and force him to score these candidates on his ideological axis

Matthew Sheffield @matthew.flux.community · 2d

Republicans are so incredible at party unity. Absurdly so.

In Virginia they are running a black Christian nationalist who thinks that homosexuality is "an immoral lifestyle choice" for governor alongside a white gay man who ran a blog featuring slavery and Nazi fetish content.

Gay Virginia Republican plagued by Nazi porn scandal brags running mate is ‘100% against’ marriage equality

It's a statewide political ticket of extremes.

www.yahoo.com

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Kate Starbird @katestarbird.bsky.social · 2d

Henry Farrell on the Trump admin’s proposed “compact” for universities, arguing that the rollout signals weakness, and that academics need to band together to reject this authoritarian attack on university independence and academic freedom.

Gift link: www.nytimes.com/2025/10/08/o...

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C. Henry @henryhenryhenry.com · 2d

a very good place to start is this recent piece on civilian social media behavior during civil war:
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

American Journal of Political Science | MPSA Journal | Wiley Online Library

Recent research emphasizes social media's potential for citizens to express shared grievances. In active conflict, however, social media posts indicating political loyalties can pose severe risks to ...

onlinelibrary.wiley.com

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C. Henry @henryhenryhenry.com · 2d

so, too, does the time horizon change. elections are no longer the single focus point; there will be many emergent events that require election-like mobilization responses, and unfortunately the state has deep agenda setting power here, typically through the use of repression.

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C. Henry @henryhenryhenry.com · 2d

if you're in the US context, it's time to shift your idea of "mobilization" from GOTV and fundraising to more kinetic and immediate audience actions: supplying information to different groups and contesting physical spaces.

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C. Henry @henryhenryhenry.com · 2d

this is a good thread that finally reckons with the more primordial politics at play. there is a long, rich research tradition in conflict studies about the behavior of and strategy towards influencing audiences - by state security forces, by non-state armed actors. they all apply in the US now.

Greg Sargent @gregsargent.bsky.social · 2d

JB Pritzker and Gavin Newsom are doing something new and important: They understand Stephen Miller's theory of fascist power politics, and they've developed a theory on how to combat it. More Dems need to reckon with Miller's understanding of the moment.

New from me:
newrepublic.com/article/2014...

Inside Stephen Miller’s Secret Plan to Normalize Trump’s Dictator Rule

He wants to supercharge searing civil tensions to get low-information voters to embrace their inner authoritarian. Exactly two Democrats appear to fully grasp this.

newrepublic.com

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