Brian Beutler
@brianbeutler.bsky.social
Off Message, Politix.fm;
Formerly: Crooked Media, TNR, TPM; www.offmessage.net/subscribe
Formerly: Crooked Media, TNR, TPM; www.offmessage.net/subscribe
Reposted by Brian Beutler
"Republicans were ready. Democrats weren't." is an apt description of most of the major social & political developments of my lifetime.
Antonin Scalia’s death 10 years ago today gave the conservative legal movement the chance it had spent decades preparing for. Republicans were ready. Democrats weren’t.
The Conservative Legal Movement Was Ready For Antonin Scalia’s Death
The sequence of events kicked off by Scalia’s death a decade ago might feel improbable. But the right was waiting for its chance to capture the Court, and didn’t let it go to waste.
ballsandstrikes.substack.com
February 13, 2026 at 8:26 PM
"Republicans were ready. Democrats weren't." is an apt description of most of the major social & political developments of my lifetime.
Reposted by Brian Beutler
On Thanksgiving, the immigrant children held at the Dilley detention center gathered in the gym for what they thought was a holiday feast.
The kids salivated over a spread of turkey, sandwiches, pastries and pies, a family told me.
But the food wasn’t for detainees — it was for the staff.
The kids salivated over a spread of turkey, sandwiches, pastries and pies, a family told me.
But the food wasn’t for detainees — it was for the staff.
February 13, 2026 at 7:41 PM
On Thanksgiving, the immigrant children held at the Dilley detention center gathered in the gym for what they thought was a holiday feast.
The kids salivated over a spread of turkey, sandwiches, pastries and pies, a family told me.
But the food wasn’t for detainees — it was for the staff.
The kids salivated over a spread of turkey, sandwiches, pastries and pies, a family told me.
But the food wasn’t for detainees — it was for the staff.
Reposted by Brian Beutler
Trump has lost the culture. But what if the universal conventional wisdom—that he won the culture in the first place—was never true? What if our warped media environment, then Trump's victory, created an illusion of MAGA cultural dominance that is now slipping. This is a long one, so strap in.
The Nonresponse To Donald Trump
How an obscure quirk of statistics and human nature explains the liberal crisis of confidence—and why it may finally be lifting.
www.offmessage.net
February 13, 2026 at 4:35 PM
Trump has lost the culture. But what if the universal conventional wisdom—that he won the culture in the first place—was never true? What if our warped media environment, then Trump's victory, created an illusion of MAGA cultural dominance that is now slipping. This is a long one, so strap in.
Reposted by Brian Beutler
“MAGA gets its rocks off watching immigrants and black people and progressive protesters be brutalized, and generating white-nationalist memes to sell regime policy. But the rest of us, including the decisive subset of independent voters, find it all repulsive.”
www.offmessage.net/p/the-nonres...
www.offmessage.net/p/the-nonres...
The Nonresponse To Donald Trump
How an obscure quirk of statistics and human nature explains the liberal crisis of confidence—and why it may finally be lifting.
www.offmessage.net
February 13, 2026 at 7:32 PM
“MAGA gets its rocks off watching immigrants and black people and progressive protesters be brutalized, and generating white-nationalist memes to sell regime policy. But the rest of us, including the decisive subset of independent voters, find it all repulsive.”
www.offmessage.net/p/the-nonres...
www.offmessage.net/p/the-nonres...
One of my many ulterior motives in writing this piece was to get data literalists to remember that their own methods require accounting for the weirdness of human/mass psychology. Not everything is as it seems in the crosstabs.
Relatedly, this is sharp from @brianbeutler.bsky.social explaining how idea that Trump won the culture is partly an artifact of propaganda and Dem demoralization. Same on immigration, though in that case centrist pundits fed that impression for dubious ends.
www.offmessage.net/p/the-nonres...
www.offmessage.net/p/the-nonres...
The Nonresponse To Donald Trump
How an obscure quirk of statistics and human nature explains the liberal crisis of confidence—and why it may finally be lifting.
www.offmessage.net
February 13, 2026 at 7:16 PM
One of my many ulterior motives in writing this piece was to get data literalists to remember that their own methods require accounting for the weirdness of human/mass psychology. Not everything is as it seems in the crosstabs.
Reposted by Brian Beutler
Relatedly, this is sharp from @brianbeutler.bsky.social explaining how idea that Trump won the culture is partly an artifact of propaganda and Dem demoralization. Same on immigration, though in that case centrist pundits fed that impression for dubious ends.
www.offmessage.net/p/the-nonres...
www.offmessage.net/p/the-nonres...
The Nonresponse To Donald Trump
How an obscure quirk of statistics and human nature explains the liberal crisis of confidence—and why it may finally be lifting.
www.offmessage.net
February 13, 2026 at 7:12 PM
Relatedly, this is sharp from @brianbeutler.bsky.social explaining how idea that Trump won the culture is partly an artifact of propaganda and Dem demoralization. Same on immigration, though in that case centrist pundits fed that impression for dubious ends.
www.offmessage.net/p/the-nonres...
www.offmessage.net/p/the-nonres...
Reposted by Brian Beutler
More recent developments, beginning with the targeting of Jimmy Kimmel, and culminating in the past couple weeks, have rebalanced things. But going forward it's important both to not get snookered again, and to not grow complacent about liberal cultural hegemony. www.offmessage.net/p/the-nonres...
February 13, 2026 at 4:46 PM
More recent developments, beginning with the targeting of Jimmy Kimmel, and culminating in the past couple weeks, have rebalanced things. But going forward it's important both to not get snookered again, and to not grow complacent about liberal cultural hegemony. www.offmessage.net/p/the-nonres...
Reposted by Brian Beutler
There has been a real shift in the overall culture. But I think conservatives basically bluffed us into thinking they'd gained more cultural ground than they had, and we sad-bastarded ourselves into thinking we'd become more out of touch than we had. www.offmessage.net/p/the-nonres...
The Nonresponse To Donald Trump
How an obscure quirk of statistics and human nature explains the liberal crisis of confidence—and why it may finally be lifting.
www.offmessage.net
February 13, 2026 at 4:43 PM
There has been a real shift in the overall culture. But I think conservatives basically bluffed us into thinking they'd gained more cultural ground than they had, and we sad-bastarded ourselves into thinking we'd become more out of touch than we had. www.offmessage.net/p/the-nonres...
Reposted by Brian Beutler
Disabled American citizen arrested by ICE:
"It's horrific, horrific scenes in there. There are black and brown people shackled and chained together... I ended up on the floor of a cold concrete cell that has no toilet, no bed, no blanket... We're not safe. This can't go on."
"It's horrific, horrific scenes in there. There are black and brown people shackled and chained together... I ended up on the floor of a cold concrete cell that has no toilet, no bed, no blanket... We're not safe. This can't go on."
February 13, 2026 at 5:50 PM
Disabled American citizen arrested by ICE:
"It's horrific, horrific scenes in there. There are black and brown people shackled and chained together... I ended up on the floor of a cold concrete cell that has no toilet, no bed, no blanket... We're not safe. This can't go on."
"It's horrific, horrific scenes in there. There are black and brown people shackled and chained together... I ended up on the floor of a cold concrete cell that has no toilet, no bed, no blanket... We're not safe. This can't go on."
Reposted by Brian Beutler
February 13, 2026 at 5:40 PM
Reposted by Brian Beutler
Brilliant analysis of where we are and how we got here, and applies more broadly than just in the US. The so-called resurgence of far-right politics around the globe is a mirage propped up via social media by self-serving shills on the right and cowardly doomsayers on the left. Fuck them all.
Trump has lost the culture. But what if the universal conventional wisdom—that he won the culture in the first place—was never true? What if our warped media environment, then Trump's victory, created an illusion of MAGA cultural dominance that is now slipping. This is a long one, so strap in.
The Nonresponse To Donald Trump
How an obscure quirk of statistics and human nature explains the liberal crisis of confidence—and why it may finally be lifting.
www.offmessage.net
February 13, 2026 at 5:08 PM
Brilliant analysis of where we are and how we got here, and applies more broadly than just in the US. The so-called resurgence of far-right politics around the globe is a mirage propped up via social media by self-serving shills on the right and cowardly doomsayers on the left. Fuck them all.
Reposted by Brian Beutler
Now ask, by what rhyme or reason did American elites come to view a 49.8 percent popular vote plurality as a landslide? www.offmessage.net/p/the-nonres...
February 13, 2026 at 4:39 PM
Now ask, by what rhyme or reason did American elites come to view a 49.8 percent popular vote plurality as a landslide? www.offmessage.net/p/the-nonres...
Reposted by Brian Beutler
Why, for most of the past year, did Trump feel so unstoppable? Why did his opponents seem so helpless? Consider the phenomenon in survey methodology called "nonresponse bias." www.offmessage.net/p/the-nonres...
February 13, 2026 at 4:37 PM
Why, for most of the past year, did Trump feel so unstoppable? Why did his opponents seem so helpless? Consider the phenomenon in survey methodology called "nonresponse bias." www.offmessage.net/p/the-nonres...
Reposted by Brian Beutler
Worth the ride:
Trump has lost the culture. But what if the universal conventional wisdom—that he won the culture in the first place—was never true? What if our warped media environment, then Trump's victory, created an illusion of MAGA cultural dominance that is now slipping. This is a long one, so strap in.
The Nonresponse To Donald Trump
How an obscure quirk of statistics and human nature explains the liberal crisis of confidence—and why it may finally be lifting.
www.offmessage.net
February 13, 2026 at 4:40 PM
Worth the ride:
Trump has lost the culture. But what if the universal conventional wisdom—that he won the culture in the first place—was never true? What if our warped media environment, then Trump's victory, created an illusion of MAGA cultural dominance that is now slipping. This is a long one, so strap in.
The Nonresponse To Donald Trump
How an obscure quirk of statistics and human nature explains the liberal crisis of confidence—and why it may finally be lifting.
www.offmessage.net
February 13, 2026 at 4:35 PM
Trump has lost the culture. But what if the universal conventional wisdom—that he won the culture in the first place—was never true? What if our warped media environment, then Trump's victory, created an illusion of MAGA cultural dominance that is now slipping. This is a long one, so strap in.
Reposted by Brian Beutler
Current state of things: One Fox News host casually declares that Epstein’s money comes from “Jewish billionaires” and a “Jewish banking family,” another responds that he was a “sex rabbi.” www.mediamatters.org/fox-news/jes...
February 13, 2026 at 12:25 PM
Current state of things: One Fox News host casually declares that Epstein’s money comes from “Jewish billionaires” and a “Jewish banking family,” another responds that he was a “sex rabbi.” www.mediamatters.org/fox-news/jes...
“[V]oters who tune out politics are regularly buffeted by gale force deluges of information from all directions. Their convictions about public policy—and their views on what the parties stand for—are shallowly rooted at best.”
Yep. Mass persuasion ≠ one-on-one persuasion of intimates.
Yep. Mass persuasion ≠ one-on-one persuasion of intimates.
How the Democrats Can Play Offense on Immigration
Typically, Democrats run for the hills when immigration comes up. But as two blue-state governors are showing, the winning play is actually to confront ICE and MAGA xenophobia head on.
newrepublic.com
February 13, 2026 at 2:14 PM
“[V]oters who tune out politics are regularly buffeted by gale force deluges of information from all directions. Their convictions about public policy—and their views on what the parties stand for—are shallowly rooted at best.”
Yep. Mass persuasion ≠ one-on-one persuasion of intimates.
Yep. Mass persuasion ≠ one-on-one persuasion of intimates.
Reposted by Brian Beutler
This but also if some of the execs of those companies, and many of their hangers on with financial interest in the arms race, were fascists.
February 13, 2026 at 3:56 AM
This but also if some of the execs of those companies, and many of their hangers on with financial interest in the arms race, were fascists.
Weird how this keeps happening.
BREAKING: DOJ moves to drop criminal charges in alleged shovel/broom attack in Minneapolis that led ICE to open fire. "Newly discovered evidence in this matter is materially inconsistent with the allegations in the Complaint Affidavit," prosecutors say. www.documentcloud.org/documents/26...
February 13, 2026 at 2:14 AM
Weird how this keeps happening.
Reposted by Brian Beutler
BREAKING: DOJ moves to drop criminal charges in alleged shovel/broom attack in Minneapolis that led ICE to open fire. "Newly discovered evidence in this matter is materially inconsistent with the allegations in the Complaint Affidavit," prosecutors say. www.documentcloud.org/documents/26...
February 12, 2026 at 11:47 PM
BREAKING: DOJ moves to drop criminal charges in alleged shovel/broom attack in Minneapolis that led ICE to open fire. "Newly discovered evidence in this matter is materially inconsistent with the allegations in the Complaint Affidavit," prosecutors say. www.documentcloud.org/documents/26...
Reposted by Brian Beutler
The problems with AI are primarily ones of corporate power and governance—a tiny handful of billionaires are deciding the future of this increasingly powerful technology.
I tend to believe the whistleblowers here; but whether you do or not, the real problem is that the public doesn’t decide.
I tend to believe the whistleblowers here; but whether you do or not, the real problem is that the public doesn’t decide.
Anthropic safety researcher quits, warning ‘world is in peril’
Other AI safety researchers have also left leading firms, citing concerns about potentially catastrophic risks.
www.semafor.com
February 12, 2026 at 6:39 PM
The problems with AI are primarily ones of corporate power and governance—a tiny handful of billionaires are deciding the future of this increasingly powerful technology.
I tend to believe the whistleblowers here; but whether you do or not, the real problem is that the public doesn’t decide.
I tend to believe the whistleblowers here; but whether you do or not, the real problem is that the public doesn’t decide.
Reposted by Brian Beutler
I imagine this being spoken by Columbo to the villain
February 12, 2026 at 11:56 PM
I imagine this being spoken by Columbo to the villain
Reposted by Brian Beutler
Actual footage of Vince Guaraldi performing "Linus and Lucy". I'm gobsmacked that this exists, but utterly thrilled too. www.youtube.com/watch?v=9EMf...
Vince Guaraldi - earliest television recording of "Linus and Lucy"
YouTube video by Lee Mendelson Film Productions, Inc.
www.youtube.com
February 12, 2026 at 7:45 PM
Actual footage of Vince Guaraldi performing "Linus and Lucy". I'm gobsmacked that this exists, but utterly thrilled too. www.youtube.com/watch?v=9EMf...
Reposted by Brian Beutler
Dem Senator Pushes Ice Director To Admit His Officers Have No Place at Polling Stations talkingpointsmemo.com/where-things...
Dem Senator Pushes Ice Director To Admit His Officers Have No Place at Polling Stations
Democrats have been warning for some time that there is a potential...
talkingpointsmemo.com
February 12, 2026 at 11:23 PM
Dem Senator Pushes Ice Director To Admit His Officers Have No Place at Polling Stations talkingpointsmemo.com/where-things...