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Jordan Nafa

@jordannafa.bsky.social

1.3K followers 310 following 2.2K posts

Bayesian Statistician and Data Scientist in the Gaming/Entertainment Industry | Bayesian Statistics, Causal Inference, R, Python, Stan, Decision Theory, Guitar | Former Political Scientist

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Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · Aug 20

Are you interested in Bayesian Optimization? Do you think multi-arm bandits are cool? Do you like donating to good causes? We'll, I'm super excited to say I'll be hosting a charity workshop on Bayesian Optimization with Multi-Arm Bandits on October 23rd.

sites.google.com/view/dariia-...

Dariia Mykhailyshyna - Workshops for Ukraine

Feedback on the past workshops (if you want to learn how to make wordclouds, check out Text Data Analysis workshop below)

sites.google.com

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Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 18h

We just sample from the posterior predictive distribution under each of the potential outcomes and calculate arbitrary quantities by integrating over their contrasts. It's remarkably more straightforward than any flow chart "test" selection nonsense 🤷‍♂️

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 18h

"You need to use a Mann-Whitney U Test here because the data is non-normal!"

My brother in Christ, I have no idea what that is but I most definitely do not need to use it to answer this question

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Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 18h

The single strongest endorsement of Bayesian estimation is that we don't have any of those cursed "which statistical test should you use" flow charts.

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Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 18h

Relatedly, explaining to the data analysts that all of their "statistical tests" are pointless and they can just throw a linear or generalized linear model at like 90% of things without ever needing to look at one of those cursed flow charts

Reposted by Jordan Nafa

Sean Mackinnon @seanpmackinnon.bsky.social · 1d

Fine-tuning a ggplot's aesthetic sensibilities is a time-honoured way to procrastinate from doing something you'd hate even more

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Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 22h

As an aside, I learned today that the only thing worse than Costco on a Saturday is HEB on a Friday afternoon

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 22h

It says a lot about me as a person that I bought a house that's like a 3 minute drive/15 minute walk from all the shopping/food/entertainment in the area and didn't actually realize that until we were moving stuff into the house

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Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 1d

The response to shit like this from Democrats should be something along the lines of "If Mr. Johnson believes that peaceful protests in opposition to dictatorial monarchy are un-American, he is a traitor to every principle the country was founded on"

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 1d

Mike Johnson: "We're so angry about it. I mean, I'm a very patient guy, but I've had it with these people. The theory we have right now -- they have a hate America rally that's scheduled for October 18 on the National Mall. It's the pro-Hamas wing and antifa people ... "

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 1d

Sure, but ideological positions like "the colored folk are inferior and don't deserve equal rights" or "we shouldn't vaccinate children against preventable illnesses" have no place in polite society, much less academia

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 1d

a cartoon character is sitting at a desk in a classroom

ALT: a cartoon character is sitting at a desk in a classroom

media.tenor.com

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Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 1d

The entire concept of "ideological diversity" is mostly nonsense because it carries no intrinsic value for any meaningful scientific endeavor. A person's opinions on the civil rights act or taxation ought to be irrelevant to basically any legitimate form of scientific research.

William B. Fuckley @opinionhaver.bsky.social · 1d

This is why I’m extremely skeptical of any attempt to add ‘ideological diversity’ to academia, despite thinking that there are fields where some version of it would genuinely epistemologically healthy: I simply do not believe that modern conservatism actually can supply people who are not this:

mtsw @mtsw.bsky.social · 1d

Thiessen having a good chuckle about his fired liberal colleagues - some of whom he worked with for 15 years - is a good reminder that token conservatives at mainstream news outlets are/were there to destroy them, not to contribute to them.

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Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 1d

i.e., 𝘋𝘦𝘮𝘰𝘤𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘴' 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘱𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘦 𝘵𝘰 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘷𝘰𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘢𝘯 𝘢𝘶𝘵𝘰𝘤𝘳𝘢𝘵 𝘩𝘢𝘴 𝘣𝘦𝘦𝘯 𝘮𝘪𝘭𝘲𝘶𝘦𝘵𝘰𝘢𝘴𝘵 𝘢𝘵 𝘣𝘦𝘴𝘵

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 1d

Yeah, but slightly more negative.

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 1d

As a noun or an adjective? In the case of the latter, 𝘔𝘦𝘥𝘪𝘰𝘤𝘳𝘦 𝘰𝘳 𝘭𝘢𝘤𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘪𝘯 𝘮𝘰𝘳𝘢𝘭 𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘪𝘵𝘶𝘥𝘦

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 1d

Play stupid games, win stupid prizes

The Economist @economist.com · 1d

For American farmers, China’s retaliatory tariffs are just the start of the problem. They are being squeezed from both sides, with falling commodity prices and rising input costs

Agriculture faces a MAGA reckoning

Tariffs, higher costs and Chinese retaliation hit hard

econ.st

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 1d

We did these bedrooms in engineered hardwood with a totally different wood pattern than the high-end laminate that's in the hallway but they actually match pretty well.

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 1d

Yup, it does both types of ice.

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 1d

To my dismay, I have reached the age where I am excited by kitchen appliances.

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Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 1d

Finally got to see the new fridge today and it is lit 🔥

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Reposted by Jordan Nafa

Andy Craig @andycraig.bsky.social · 2d

Like, "Donald Trump is disqualified by the 14th Amendment" isn't a crazy fringe position when 232 members of the House and 57 members of the Senate explicitly voted yes to that assertion.

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Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 2d

The fact that Democrats are wholesale refusing to condition any deal to fund the government on the removal of NG forces from American cities should be the scandal of the century.

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 2d

We haven't crossed that second bar, but if were going to the early warning signs would look a lot like what we're currently seeing in terms of the use of the legal system to harrass and prosecute critics of the regime and the deployment of armed military personnel into opposition-controlled cities.

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 2d

Once you've crossed into the latter category, there aren't a lot of cases of getting out of it without some kind of violent revolt that topples the regime. So if you cross that second bar, there just aren't a lot of options that aren't "time to start shooting back."

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Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 2d

Logically, a government may be illegitimate (i.e., extremely corrupt, disregard for rule of law or selective enforcement) without resorting to the violent suppression of dissent (i.e., forced disappearances, extreme brutality against dissidents).

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Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 2d

a man wearing sunglasses and a leather jacket is talking about scientists .

ALT: a man wearing sunglasses and a leather jacket is talking about scientists .

media.tenor.com