Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Reposted by Ryan C. Smith

jael holzman @jael.bsky.social · 1d

SCOOP: The Bureau of Land Management says the largest solar project in Nevada — the Esmeralda 7 mega-farm — has been canceled

The news was quietly dropped via a sudden website update with no public word from any of the companies involved or a statement from the agency

@heatmap.news

Esmeralda 7 Solar Project Has Been Canceled, BLM Says

It would have delivered a gargantuan 6.2 gigawatts of power.

heatmap.news

130 1.1K 2.1K

Ryan C. Smith @rcsmitheco.bsky.social · 11h

It is somewhat concerning how five of the Magnificent Seven are taking this kind of a beating, especially how most US GDP growth for the past two quarters has been thanks to tech spending on AI.

Watch this space.
#EconSky #AI

1

Reposted by Ryan C. Smith

jael holzman @jael.bsky.social · 12h

NextEra Energy has written me back saying they remain committed to their solar projects that used to be a part of Esmeralda 7

Calling them “early stage” and confirming they’ll need their own “comprehensive environmental analysis”

So, yeah, Esmeralda 7 is Joever

NextEra Energy Resources is one of six companies pursuing projects in Esmeralda County, Nevada. We are in the early stage of development and remain committed to pursuing our project’s comprehensive environmental analysis by working closely with the Bureau of Land Management.

1 6 31

Ryan C. Smith @rcsmitheco.bsky.social · 13h

Sounds like the vibes I got from Seville & Cordoba. There's something about being in a place where folks are playing fetch with a dog using a lime they picked off a tree in the plaza that feels so welcoming.

1

Reposted by Ryan C. Smith

John Smillie @johnsmillie42.bsky.social · 17h

www.canarymedia.com/articles/cle...

Love the renewable line going up, but what I really want is the coal line to go down

Chart: In a first, world gets more power from renewables than coal

The world is still burning through enormous amounts of coal, but the energy source is stagnating as renewables — and solar in particular — soar.

www.canarymedia.com

1 11 60

Reposted by Ryan C. Smith

Justin Gerdes @justingerdes.bsky.social · 1d

@calenergy.bsky.social: "Coal’s share of California’s power mix would fall to below 0.2% when Intermountain goes offline, placing the Golden State among the least coal-dependent states in the nation – and one of the largest jurisdictions in the world to do so." www.energy.ca.gov/news/2025-10... 🔌💡

As Trump embraces dirty fossil fuels, California hits major clean energy milestone, invests over $100 million more in proven technologies

SACRAMENTO – In a strong rebuke to recent federal efforts to halt clean energy progress and expand fossil fuel generation, California continues to lead the nation in building a cleaner, more reliable ...

www.energy.ca.gov

4 6

Reposted by Ryan C. Smith

Josh Marshall @joshtpm.bsky.social · 2d

Jury Refuses To Indict Chicago ICE Protesters In Latest Revolt Against Trump Overreach talkingpointsmemo.com/where-things...

Jury Refuses To Indict Chicago ICE Protesters In Latest Revolt Against Trump Overreach

A grand jury Tuesday night declined to indict two protesters in the...

talkingpointsmemo.com

25 480 1.8K

Ryan C. Smith @rcsmitheco.bsky.social · 1d

The really neat thing about the growth in renewable energy over the past year is how end-user adoption has been a key driver. The shift to renewables is inevitable in part because renewables don't have the same steep capital requirements as fossil fuels & are much easier to adopt.
#ClimateSky

NPR @npr.org · 1d

For the first time on record, renewable energy generated more electricity for the planet than coal, a new report says. n.pr/47hcegr

Renewable energy outpaces coal for electricity generation in historic first, report says

For the first time on record, renewable energy generated more electricity for the planet than coal, a new report says.

n.pr

Reposted by Ryan C. Smith

Island Press @islandpress.bsky.social · 1d

WHAT SHOULD A CLEVER MOOSE EAT? is a delightful exploration of the North Woods and what its natural history teaches us. WHITE PINE is a journey through the natural and human history of the white pine.

This month only get both for $40 (+ free shipping!) islandpress.org/2for40

1 1

Ryan C. Smith @rcsmitheco.bsky.social · 1d

Imagine telling everyone you know absolutely nothing about economics like this.
#EconSky

Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 2d

ANDREESSEN: Even if AI ends up destroying all the jobs, “the result would be hyper-deflation of prices, which is the thing that people miss. .. Things that today cost a lot of money will all of a sudden be cheap or free.”

@fortune.com
fortune.com/2025/10/08/b...

Reposted by Ryan C. Smith

Chris Bataille @chrisbataille.bsky.social · 2d

To put this in context, German ratepayers pay and average 0.28-0.40 euros/kWh through the year.

Christian Breyer @christianonre.bsky.social · 2d

Germany wraps up solar-plus-storage tender with average price of €0.0531/kWh www.pv-magazine.com/2025/10/08/g...

Germany wraps up solar-plus-storage tender with average price of €0.0531/kWh

Germany has concluded a new renewables tender for innovative projects, securing 485 MW of capacity at final prices ranging from €0.0479 ($0.0557)/kWh to €0.0559/kWh

www.pv-magazine.com

4 4 8

Ryan C. Smith @rcsmitheco.bsky.social · 1d

Then that has to be part of any such calculations and discussions.

Starting with asking whether the conditions that enable bubbles are also detrimental to democracy.

Ryan C. Smith @rcsmitheco.bsky.social · 2d

You just KNOW this will be in a future history book.

Danny K @dannykpolitics.bsky.social · 5d

WATCH: ‘Portland Frog’ pepper balled by ICE agents

2

Reposted by Ryan C. Smith

Bill McKibben @billmckibben.bsky.social · 2d

America is in crisis.

So it's a small relief that the rest of the world is actually getting remarkable stuff done with energy. We just passed a huge milestone globally!

Now back to work on America.
billmckibben.substack.com/p/something-...

Something extraordinary just happened

But of course there's a but. Or two.

billmckibben.substack.com

10 72 270

Ryan C. Smith @rcsmitheco.bsky.social · 2d

Especially because all that would do is allow the usual suspects to walk away from the wreckage. There's just no amount of money that's going to make this tech sustainable, if there was we'd have a glimmer of it by now.

1

Ryan C. Smith @rcsmitheco.bsky.social · 2d

That's the real kicker there. They've created a deeply unstable situation where everyone is propping everyone else up and there just *isn't* the money there to bail it all out.

I suppose the US government *could* do 2008 again but the social consequences of that are probably not good.

1 1

Ryan C. Smith @rcsmitheco.bsky.social · 2d

It is *very* common for bubbles to experience escalating surges as they get closer to bursting. Watch the markets for further unrealistic exuberance right up until someone runs for the door.
#EconSky #AI

CNBC @cnbc.com · 2d

Santoli's Wednesday market wrap-up: The usual flag carriers of the AI boom push S&P 500 to new highs

While stocks tied to the AI buildout are booming, those closer to the here-and-now consumer remain sluggish.

cnb.cx

1 4

Ryan C. Smith @rcsmitheco.bsky.social · 2d

It's funny how every bubble ever, from the South Seas to right now, always has this brief surge moment just before the whole thing pops.

Newton's financial misadventures in the South Sea Bubble | Notes and Records: the Royal Society Journal of the History of Science

royalsocietypublishing.org

2 2 15

Ryan C. Smith @rcsmitheco.bsky.social · 2d

Also:

The money to make this work just isn't there, check out @edzitron.com for more. 11/10

Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · 14d

In fact, reporting and projections suggest that OpenAI has committed to over $450 billion in compute alone in the next five years. Their other costs are likely to be in the tens of billions, with $30bn in salaries over the next few years.
www.wheresyoured.at/openai-onetr...

Compute Costs - At least $456.9 Billion Over Five Years
Let’s run through this one more time:

OpenAI has committed to spending $300 billion on compute through 2030 with Oracle.
OpenAI has said it plans to spend an additional $100 billion on backup compute over the next four years.
It’s unclear whether this figure includes the commitments stated previously, or are something distinct. Based on the wording of the coverage I’ve read, I’m inclined to think it’s a separate commitment — which is not good!
OpenAI has agreed to buy $11.9 billion, $4 billion and $6.5bn in compute from CoreWeave over the next five years.
Per The Information, OpenAI expects to spend at least $13 billion in 2027 and $28 billion in 2028 on compute with Microsoft.
This also matches up with The Information’s reporting — though I actually think it’s going to be higher, as OpenAI fudges its numbers and “rounds” them (see the diagram).

OpenAI’s Other Costs Are Deeply Questionable - I Estimate It Will Spend At Least $30 Billion On Salaries Alone In The Next 4 Years, And Other Costs (Storage, Data, Etc) Are Likely To Be In The Billions
So, OpenAI’s supposed $115 billion burn, leaked to The Information on September 6 2025, does not really make much sense.

Assuming we trust these numbers, we’re meant to believe that OpenAI will only lose $17 billion in 2026, on (supposed) revenues of $30 billion, meaning it’s burning $47 billion in 2026.

Assuming, again, that we trust the leaked numbers, OpenAI will spend $40 billion on compute in 2026, leaving it with $7 billion of leftover burn rate.

Now, The Information’s “cash burn” projections are extremely kind, based on their own reporting around OpenAI’s 2024 costs:

The Information reports that some of these costs are the upfront cost of training that has been amortized over a few years, but if that’s the case, why are there other training costs too? Does OpenAI own its own hardware? What does that billion dollars represent? Who knows! What’s a billion between friends?

In any case, I also think The Information is lowballing the cost of employees that make a median of $1.37 million a year, though stock-based compensation may play into that too. But even if we assume they make $500,000 a year in cash on average, I refuse to believe that the 3,500 or so people that worked there in 2024 only cost the company $700 million. If we multiply those two figures, we’re left with nearly $1.75 billion. Some estimates say over 6,000 people work at OpenAI, and with that same math, you’d be looking at $3 billion, and that’s before you add overheads like benefits and taxes.

Assuming that OpenAI grows its headcount by 25% a year, that means it’ll be at 7,500 people in 2026, 9,375 by 2027, 11,718 by 2028, 14,648 by 2029, and 18,310 by 2030, meaning that assuming its average compensation remains the same (which is unlikely, given the ongoing demand for AI talent), it’ll pay $3.75 billion in 2026, $4.688 billion in 2027, $5.859 billion in 2028, $7.324 billion in 2029, and $9.155 billion in 2030.

And this is for a very conservative estimate of the cost of its staff, and one that doesn’t include stock based compensation, or any of those other ancillary costs that I mentioned earlier (like benefits and payroll taxes)..

Other costs like data, hosting, sales, and marketing are hard to gauge, but they are, without a doubt, going to increase. Nevertheless, they amounted to $1.8 billion in costs in 2024, and if we assume that they increase by, say, 20% each year (another conservative estimate,) this would mean that they’d be $2.16 billion in 2025, $2.592 billion in 2026, $3.11 billion in 2027, $3.7 billion in 2028, $4.47 billion in 2029, and $5.3 billion in 2030. These are, I want to be clear, very likely very low.

Ryan C. Smith @rcsmitheco.bsky.social · 2d

At this point, responsible economists should really be asking two questions:

1) How do we stop this pattern of increasingly large, unstable economic bubbles?

2) How can we salvage what we can from this bubble & repair the damage while we can? 10/10
#EconSky #ClimateSky #AcademicSky

2 2

Ryan C. Smith @rcsmitheco.bsky.social · 2d

This same spending boom is now probably the largest bubble in history. Said bubble is directly contributing to rising prices, choking out investment in other sectors of the economy, & appears to be the only thing holding up the US economy.

All of which was also true before the gov't shutdown. 9/x

Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 7d

“.. His conclusion is very stark: not just that an economy already at stall speed will fall into recession as both the data-center and wealth effects plateau, but that they’ll reverse, just as in the dot-com bubble did ..”

@marketwatch.com
www.marketwatch.com/story/the-ai...

1 2 4

Ryan C. Smith @rcsmitheco.bsky.social · 2d

On top of being a major dead-end, LLM datacenters are also huge drains on power grids & are directly linked to rising electricity prices across the US. It would not be surprising if these rising prices are part of why consumer spending has consistently declined since 2025 began. 8/x

The AI Data Center Boom Is Driving Up Electricity Costs, Research Shows

The price of electricity, juiced by demand from power-hungry data centers, is being passed on to residential customers.

www.cnet.com

1 1

Ryan C. Smith @rcsmitheco.bsky.social · 2d

I could spend all day on the repeated broken promises, persistent inability to fix hallucinations, recommendations to eat rocks & follow the Beatles' nonexistent advice on leaving dogs in hot cars, or any number of other examples. The point is this tech has consistently failed to deliver. 7/x

Mark Zuckerberg Humiliated as AI Glasses Debut Fails in Front of Huge Crowd

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg's demos of new smart glasses repeatedly failed, leading to awkward stares, deafening silences, and muted laughter.

futurism.com

1 1 3

Ryan C. Smith @rcsmitheco.bsky.social · 2d

AI, by contrast, has yet to produce any profits or demonstrate there is a pathway to profitability. Reporters like @edzitron.com have been sounding the alarm on this trend & the failure of AI companies to deliver on profit-making promises for over a year. 6/x

The AI Industry Is Still Light-Years From Making a Profit, Experts Warn

Some AI investors seem to finally be waking up to a huge problem: that the industry has not yet figured out how to make a profit.

futurism.com

1 1 3

Ryan C. Smith @rcsmitheco.bsky.social · 2d

Usually, this term is used in resource economics because the main examples (the Netherlands & natural gas, the Persian Gulf & oil) were driven by fossil fuel wealth. Those sources of wealth also, unlike the crypto & then AI bubbles, actually added value, albeit mismanaged, for their societies. 5/x

1 1