Robbie Andrew
banner
robbieandrew.bsky.social
Robbie Andrew
@robbieandrew.bsky.social

Senior scientist at Oslo-based CICERO Center for International Climate Research • 🌍Global Carbon Project • https://robbieandrew.github.io/

Environmental science 43%
Economics 15%
Pinned
On Tuesday I gave a ten-minute update on where global fossil CO₂ emissions are at.
CICEROdagen 2025 - En hel dag med klimakunnskap - Auditorium 0001
YouTube video by CICERO klima
youtu.be

Very interesting interview with economist Ha-Joon Chang about India's development model and prospects.
Ha-Joon Chang on the Future of India's Industrialisation
Facing US tariffs and automation risks, Ha-Joon Chang argues that India must rebuild manufacturing via industrial policy, capital controls, and national champions.
frontline.thehindu.com

"Just as ... the term “natural gas” is now used for what is mostly methane"
Interesting that this folk etymology is normalised here.

I've since added a few more figures to my "international transport" webpage:
robbieandrew.github.io/internationa...

This blows my mind. It would be great to see this sort of comparison tracked over time.

Nudge theory has gained fairly wide currency as a kind of "ah yes, that's obvious, why didn't we think of that before?" But the real world doesn't always match what seems intuitive.

You can find some charts and data on international transport on my webpage here:
robbieandrew.github.io/internationa...

Update:
Drivers without their ration cards or over their quota will pay a little more than they used to.
"Fuel demand has at times exceeded 140 million liters per day, outpacing production of roughly 110 million liters, driven by inefficient vehicles, smuggling and seasonal spikes"
Iran introduces limited gas price rise in sensitive political move
Iran on Tuesday announced a limited fuel price increase in a move which appears aimed at reining in costly government subsidies while avoiding public anger which has previously exploded into protests.
www.iranintl.com

One core reason is that most people buy on finance and interest rates have been very high in the fight against inflation. Similar to (although not as bad as) Thailand. People just don't have access to as much finance as they used to. So the arrival of cheap BYDs makes a splash.

Reposted by Glen P. Peters

Plenty of figures to choose from. Here are the first six of the 74 on the webpage. They're numbered according to which slide they appear on in the GCB's Powerpoint slidedeck (link on this page), which has a little more interpretation on each one.
robbieandrew.github.io/GCB2025/

An earlier story on the arrival of BYD's Atto 1 (aka Seagull) in Indonesia:
BYD’s Cheapest EV, Atto 1, Officially Arrives in Indonesia
BYD’s most affordable EV, the Atto 1, has arrived in Indonesia, offering a 300–380 km range at prices starting from Rp 195 million
jakartaglobe.id

New research in New Zealand finds the same result:
Marine researchers find biggest source of microplastics in our ocean is vehicle tyres
It was found broken down tyres were the largest source of microplastics in New Zealand's coastal waters.
www.rnz.co.nz

"Sinking Carbon in China"
A short film by Zhao Liang, juxtaposing coal mining and tree planting, both on an enormous scale.
Opinion | The Elements That Define Our World
A series of short films about how the elements of the periodic table shape our lives.
www.nytimes.com

For Nepal, I had previously looked for official stats and failed, so decided now to go with mirror trade data, which are probably decent for Nepal (few borders). But now I've found official Customs data, so I will process those and compare.

It's not easy when a country keeps poor statistics, when imports might be complete cars or cars in parts that are locally assembled, and when cars might be imported from neighbouring countries without going through Customs.

Heck, that should have read 2021, not 2001! 👆

Yes. I have looked for data for Ethiopia before, but I'll take another look.

It varies a lot by country. In the Netherlands diesel are under 1%, but in Germany they're still abotu 14%.

While the Indian fuel blockade ot 2015-16 is implicated as the initial trigger, the proximal trigger for the surge in electric car imports was a policy change that took effect in 2001.
Nepal’s electric vehicle imports surge after tax cuts
According to the Department of Customs, 1,103 battery-powered cars worth Rs3.24 billion entered the country between mid-July and mid-January.
kathmandupost.com

The article is worth reading. It's an interesting situation, with a landlocked country, historical ties, switching but not necessarily reducing dependence, fragility, inequalities, etc. And the article was written in August, before September's mayhem, which makes any prognostication futile.

Nope. Even when it was live, you couldn't rewind. But last year's conference's video is online, so I would assume they'll make this one available soonish.

Reposted by Glen P. Peters

The Nepalese EV transition.
In simple terms, brown on this graph is India's share and blue is China's share.
The trigger? India effectively halted all imports of petroleum into Nepal in 2015, an "undeclared blockade", which was "masked as constitutional concern".
robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/

Is Birol still in the room while Opedal is saying these things?

EU with 19% BEV in October, 16% this year.
robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/

No question abou that.

No problem. You can find it on this page:
robbieandrew.github.io/country/?cou...
Country page
robbieandrew.github.io

Perhaps you misunderstood. Demand was lower in 2025 because there was less need for cooling, because May and June were cooler than normal. That's not about increased suffering.

Back in February I shared this. The government knows it has to do something, but simply cannot. A fiscal doom spiral to go with all the other problems in Iran today.
Indications that Iran is about to substantially cut its domestic fuel subsidies.
"Sources say security agencies are increasingly worried about the country’s growing dependence on fuel imports and its shrinking capacity to meet demand under escalating US sanctions."
Iran to raise diesel prices in politically sensitive move
Iran International has obtained exclusive information revealing that once updates and testing of fuel station price display systems are completed, diesel prices will rise starting next month.
www.iranintl.com