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Ruo Shui

@ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social

1.9K followers 200 following 6K posts

stay hydrated https://ruoshui.substack.com/

ruoshui.substack.com

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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · Jul 1

The Loss of an Objective Reality

trend: chaos dominance and wealth gap + AI/GLP-1

ruoshui.substack.com

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Reposted by Ruo Shui

Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 1h

Chair Powell gets a grateful standing O receiving NABE’s Adam Smith Award as he strongly hints at an Oct rate cut and and end to QT “in coming months”
@nabe-econ.bsky.social

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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 3h

there's more help from small banks, oil/homebuilders today

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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 3h

IWM being green is fascinating

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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 3h

seems like most of bigger names have gotten their headlines

Open Compute Project

www.opencompute.org

Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 3h

the Argentina one probably matters more than Benioff deals, but largely noise at this point

it's going to be treated the same as earnings reports saying "AI"

Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 3h

same with oil names

Helene Meisler @hmeisler.bsky.social · 3h

Homies catching a bid

Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 3h

A bar chart titled “Figure 4. Distribution of OBBBA and Illustrative Tariffs, 2026–2035 Average.”* The subtitle indicates that values represent the percent of post-tax-and-transfer income. The chart compares four fiscal policy scenarios across income quintiles:

OBBBA Alone (dark blue)
Tariffs Alone (teal blue)
OBBBA, Paid for with Tariffs (orange)
OBBBA, Deficit-Financed (green)

The x-axis shows income quintiles from 1st (lowest income) to 5th (highest income). The y-axis ranges from -6% to +3%.

Under a gross benefits approach, the package is regressive, with a 3% fall in bottom quintile income versus a 6% rise in top quintile income, a swing of about 9 percentage points. The package is even more steeply regressive when incorporating deficit costs however: the net benefit swings from a 14%-of-income burden at the bottom to a 3% benefit at the top, a swing of roughly 17 percentage points.

Footnote:
Final cost of OBBBA (Public Law 119-21) and illustrative tariff policy calibrated to fully offset OBBBA cost.

Source: Congressional Budget Office (CBO), The Budget Lab Analysis. Created with Datawrapper.

Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 3h

similar island top. 660.7 to cancel this time

Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 18d

would need 660.4 to cancel

Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 4h

AI first shopping with Sparky

Walmart and OpenAI team up for AI-powered shopping in ChatGPT

Instead of searching for ingredients, you'll be able to say "plan taco night" and buy the goods.

www.axios.com

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Reposted by Ruo Shui

Allison Morrow @amorrow.bsky.social · 4h

Incredible reporting and writing from the CNN investigative team on the scammy world of crypto ATMs

Americans are losing millions to scammers at crypto ATMs. Here’s how companies profit

Companies often fail to refund money to victims and aggressively fight police to claw back scam money seized from machines.

www.cnn.com

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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 4h

might be showing up now

it’s me, aubrey plaza accord @sellingtheta.bsky.social · Jul 23

well it’s just a theory anyway lol

Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 4h

things that make you go...hm

A line chart titled “Exhibit 6: Among lower-income households, all generations, aside from Gen Z, have seen a softening in spending growth, but it is weakest for Gen X and Millennials.” The subtitle explains that the data shows lower-income household total credit and debit card spending, by generation (3-month moving average, year-over-year %, not seasonally adjusted).

The y-axis ranges from -4% to +8%, and the x-axis spans from early 2023 through mid-2025.

Gen Z (dark blue line): Starts around +6% in early 2023, dips to near +2% by late 2023, rises again through 2024, and ends 2025 with the strongest growth near +6%.

Millennials (red line): Begin near +2%, drop below 0% in 2023, fluctuate between -2% and 0% through 2024 and 2025, showing the weakest sustained spending growth.

Gen X (orange line): Moves downward from around +3% in early 2023 to about -2% by early 2024, stays mostly below zero thereafter.

Baby Boomers (green line): Hover between +1% and -1% across the entire period, showing mild but steady declines in spending growth.

Traditionalists (light blue line): Begin below 0%, rise slightly through 2023, fluctuate mildly around zero in 2024–2025.

Overall, the visual emphasizes that only Gen Z maintains positive momentum in spending growth, while Millennials and Gen X experience the sharpest slowdowns.

Source: Bank of America Internal Data, cited in Bank of America Institute.

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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 4h

not sure enough people realize the feedback loop would work the same way going down yet

Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 21d

$GME amplified the options + social media cocktail

social media sentiment is still positive at the moment

it’s me, aubrey plaza accord @sellingtheta.bsky.social · 21d

i was in school during the dotcom bubble; but this is the first time I’ve ever felt like the stock market has become a playground for people to get rich quickly rather than a mode for longer term investment

Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 4h

thought it was notable Karpathy largely used tab completes

"...it's basically entirely hand-written (with tab autocomplete). I tried to use claude/codex agents a few times but they just didn't work well enough at all and net unhelpful, possibly the repo is too far off the data distribution."

Simon Willison @simonwillison.net · 15h

nanochat by Andrej Karpathy is neat - 8,000 lines of code (mostly Python, a tiny bit of Rust) that can train an LLM on $100 of rented cloud compute which can then be served with a web chat UI on a much smaller machine simonwillison.net/2025/Oct/13/...

nanochat

Really interesting new project from Andrej Karpathy, described at length in this discussion post. It provides a full ChatGPT-style LLM, including training, inference and a web Ui, that can be …

simonwillison.net

Reposted by Ruo Shui

Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 4d

As PJM prepares its 2026 load outlook utility forecasts show a rapidly shifting landscape, with smaller zones predicting surging demand 🔌💡

A balancing question in play is whether large zones can continue to scale larger, or if small areas have the headroom to steal momentum in the datacenter race

large load demand growth for dominion, aep, ppl, comed, and dayton in PJM, from 2025 thorough 2035, bar chart

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Reposted by Ruo Shui

Nicolas Fulghum @nicolasfulghum.bsky.social · 1d

Another new record for batteries in California 🔋⚡️

Batteries met a record high 37.2% of load at 6:25pm yesterday, Oct 12.

The share of load remained at >30% for two whole hours from 5:50 to 7:50 during peak demand and discharged late into the night, reducing gas and imports.