I honestly do not know; the one consistent throughline of Stancil's entries into this debate is less a specific positive claim about what _does_ causes Democratic losses, and more an insistent rejection of the idea that material conditions play any significant role.

Anyway, seeing as I have your attention, given the admitted difficulty of empirically measuring your "right explanation", how do you know it's right?

I disagree, but at least you're having fun.

Whereas your explanation can't even be p-hacked, because you've yet to spell it out in a quantitative form that could be rigorously checked against evidence.

Political scientists have been writing about changes in income as a predictor of presidential voting since at least the 1980s.

Suggesting that they haven't sought to "extend [that] explanation a few cycles and see if it works" is at best ignorant and at worst wilfully deceptive.

What if economic trends don't "mechanistically predict[...] vote shift", but are nonetheless a significant factor influencing voting behavior?

Hi, I'm "everyone else", just passing through to note that your contribution to this conversation is what's worthless and @bone2meetu.bsky.social is making more sense than you, Stancil, and everyone else upthread.

Bad Lads: a harrowing story of how Thatcher's government sent boys to hell

Bad Lads is a play based on the testimonies of men who were held in Medomsley Detention Centre in County Durham in the 1980s as teenagers. @rachelcdailey.bsky.social reviews:
www.thecanary.co/uk/news/2025...

❗️ First footage of UK-contracted spy plane taking off from Cyprus in aid of Israeli intelligence 👇

www.declassifieduk.org/gaza-spy-pla...

#OtD 11 Oct 1946 the UK govt announced that 39,535 people were squatting in 1038 military camps across England and Wales. Many were ex-servicemen's families demanding housing after WWII, and eventually a forced the govt to build mass council housing stories.workingclasshistory.com/article/8350...

More generally, I turn the mic over to David Timoney and his thread:

Could hypothetically have helped, could make things worse. After all, another cause of the Windrush scandal was the government destroying identity records. When the government can effectively annul identity documentation at will, why would an ID card help (it's just one thing to annul)?

Just make up whatever you want.

Though the process is presumably mostly complete; I have a hard time imagining the following happening in an America where legacy, normal-right-wing, and fringe-right-wing media are essentially distinct.

bsky.app/profile/dave...

I see you're walking back the assessment of the Biden economy from "amazing" to the far-more-defensible "good" "(by most objective measures)". Recall that this whole argument started because you & Stancil got big mad that Semler & I dared to identify a metric by which the Biden economy was sub par.

An answer may be that in equilibrium the two forms would have merged, and the process of relaxation to equilibrium is slow enough that it hasn't had time to finish.

Your position is pretty clearly projection, certainly.

Best of luck maintaining your credibility as you flagrantly exaggerate how well the economy's doing whenever the Pres has a "(D)" after their name.

I'd answer your question but presumably you'd just speciously accuse me of bad faith again.

Anyway: "I didn't say bidens econ=amazing, byt talking about it that way gets you closer to your goal" sounds dangerously close to endorsing lying about the economy in the hope of scoring rhetorical points.

guy got mad at me for sharing this comic on twitter back in 2017, but it's still one of my favorite exchanges. (he was not kidding, btw.)

An excellent example of how national security / “terrorism” discourses get used to reframe “free speech” as an argument to silence those who are framed as threats.

Pritzker is full of shit. He asked Illinois residents to take out their phones and record ICE…then his gestapo beat up and arrested people doing just that, including my friend.

Hi JP, quick civil question for you regarding the "Other countries [that] use [digital ID] and it helps them": how many of those other countries had a Windrush scandal?