William Lane
@williamjtlane.bsky.social
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Policy, Public Affairs and Electoral Analysis 'Political Analyst' - Aaron H. Ellis Views my own Writes at https://medium.com/@williamjtlane
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williamjtlane.bsky.social
NEW ARTICLE

Well I promised a deep electoral dive for Labour's Conference special, and here it is!

Read about the ongoing fall of Labour's 2024 success in the South of England, and what that could mean for a potential Lib-Lab pact in 2029.

open.substack.com/pub/williamj...
Is Labour's Support Draining Out of the South?
Only a year on from a stunning political upset in the South East, Labour’s support appears to be draining away incredibly fast. Is this trend reversible, or are Labour on course for a major reversal?
open.substack.com
williamjtlane.bsky.social
TL:DR It's impossible to give any accurate overall predictions for 2029 until we can be reasonably sure that we know which of the 5(!!) UK wide parties currently polling over 10% will still be relevant in the year leading up to the election.

This is a genuine change from even 10 years ago.
williamjtlane.bsky.social
The Cons could also just collapse entirely, at which point their voters would go to either Ref, Libs or the sofa.

That by itself would massively change the dynamic, as it would leave Ref as the only right wing party, but would also leave a sizeable chunk of right-wing Ref-skeptic voters.
williamjtlane.bsky.social
For example I could see an (admittedly very unlikely) situation where Labour splits or collapses, in which case their voters would stream to the Libs and Greens.

I could also see a (more likely) situation where Reform stumbles and starts declining in the polls, throwing the Cons a lifeline.
williamjtlane.bsky.social
It took a decade for the Libs to die as a major party and for the other minor parties to be absorbed.

Similarly, I can see a way for all of Lab, Libs, Ref or Cons to be the largest party (although only Lab, Libs or Ref could get a majority).

The political situation now was unthinkable 4 years ago.
williamjtlane.bsky.social
Yeah, this is the problem with trying to predict the outcome of the next election right now, it's a moving target.

We don't actually know which parties will be relevant enough to potentially gain a majority/largest party in 2029.

In 1923 the Libs, Lab and Cons all looked like potential winners.
mariosrichards.bsky.social
I think you're right about DKs - as of this moment.

But I also don't think ceilings/floors are an actual thing - for the reason you allude, nothing magically guarantees that a political party can't crash and burn and voters won't leap on the pyre but move to their next best option.
williamjtlane.bsky.social
(To be clear here I'm not saying that the Empire hasn't influenced British culture, it absolutely has in all sorts of ways, large and small.

But for the reasons stated above I don't think the Empire, or imperial nostalgia more broadly, was the primary reason for Brexit).
williamjtlane.bsky.social
And it was this myth, the idea of a plucky Britain standing up to the dastardly Europeans, that powered the ideals behind the Brexit campaign.

You saw it everywhere, and it was powerful because it spoke to something deep within British society, in a way the myth of Empire just doesn't.
williamjtlane.bsky.social
There's an article to be written (perhaps by me) on how Britain's contribution to WW2 effectively allowed us to hide the sins of Empire.

Indeed, I'd go so far as to argue that the modern British nation is essentially a creation of WW2, with 1940 the defining moment of national struggle.
williamjtlane.bsky.social
There was definitely a period in the 60s through 80s where Britain had an 'imperial sunset' moment, and you'll find cultural works from that period that reference the Empire in a sort of self-satisfied 'we were great once' kind of way.

But that was long gone as a mainstream idea by 2016.
williamjtlane.bsky.social
Now of course in actual historical terms you cannot separate the British Empire from Britain's role in WW2

But in national mythology you absolutely can! And that has been the dominant tendency within British culture since at least the 60s, although it is now (rightly) coming under greater scrutiny.
williamjtlane.bsky.social
The actual myth that drove the Brexit campaign was not imperial nostalgia (which to be honest is generally seen as embarrassing).

It was the 'blitz spirit', Britain 'standing alone' in 1939-41. That was the cultural touchstone that was repeated again and again from 2016-19.
williamjtlane.bsky.social
At the broader public level... I just don't see it.

The 'Singapore-on-Thames' arguments of pro-Brexit elites clashed directly with the far more isolationist view of Brexit voters, and the revealed preference of the whole project was to pull up the drawbridge and wall off the whole world.
williamjtlane.bsky.social
'Brexit was about the Empire' is IMO an idea that makes a lot more sense in theory than in practice.

I think it's probable that at the elite level there was some kind of genuine imperial nostalgia at play, but refracted through dreams of 'free trade' rather than colonial imperialism.
merovingians.bsky.social
I feel like this is still an underrated explanation for Brexit
williamjtlane.bsky.social
...that the Libs are essentially boxed in there for now, without much room to expand north unless Labour starts losing to the right wing parties.

Because much of the Lib Dem and Labour voterbases look so similar, direct confrontation isn't really in the interests of either (for now at least).
williamjtlane.bsky.social
Cornwall was exactly the kind of place I was thinking of, especially as it's a rare case where I think a direct Lab-Lib switchover could be possible in 2029 (given Cornwall's historic Liberal tendency).

I argued recently that Labour is being pushed out of the south, but the collary to that is...
Is Labour's Support Draining Out of the South?
Only a year on from a stunning political upset in the South East, Labour’s support appears to be draining away incredibly fast. Is this trend reversible, or are Labour on course for a major reversal?
williamjtlane.substack.com
williamjtlane.bsky.social
This this 1000 times this!

The realist position should be to support Ukraine to the hilt, they are currently spending the blood we would otherwise have to lose to defeat our main regional enemy

And they're doing it while only asking for money and guns, which is nothing compared to flesh and blood
igmansfield.bsky.social
"The West is not doing Ukraine a favour by helping it resist aggression; it is Ukraine doing the West a favour."

Fundamental point in @ldfreedman.bsky.social's latest. The true 'realist' position on Ukraine is that we should support Ukraine.

samf.substack.com/p/as-long-as...
williamjtlane.bsky.social
Yeah, although I do think a bit of Lab-Ref-Lib seat hokey cokey could take place between 2024-2034.

If you look at the MRP polls the Libs hold basically all of their seats in the South while Lab gets wiped, and I think the Libs are the long term beneficiaries of that.
williamjtlane.bsky.social
I wonder if this is because people tend to become less people pleasey as they get older?
williamjtlane.bsky.social
I think that last point is very perceptive

One thing that unites the hardcore Brexiters and hard FBPE types is an unwillingness to reckon with just how 'European' Britain is

I think Britain in the 10s will be seen similarly to 90s Italy, the forerunner of a broader political change across Europe
helenebismarck.bsky.social
I do, in fairness, think that we are at the beginning of a new time, and that liberal democracies and ageing societies across the Continent are struggling to adapt. But the point is Britain is very much part of that Story.One could even argue that they are ahead on a destructive European curve.
williamjtlane.bsky.social
I mean this is pretty Euro-centric, no?

Lots of kids still come to London, I met many of them doing my Masters at LSE, many of them are from China, India, Singapore, Hong Kong etc.

It is a real shame that Europeans don't have easy access to the UK anymore, but Europe isn't the whole world.
columnist.bsky.social
My simple gauge of best city-ness is where the kids (defined broadly) want to go. London *was* that place for many European kids - but that’s effectively impossible now.
williamjtlane.bsky.social
The article is defensive, but I'd also struggle to think of a city in Europe* that can match London in terms of breadth and depth of things to do. Size really does matter when it comes to city status.

Plus i think this overstates London prior to 2016 and understates it since.

*aside from Paris
columnist.bsky.social
Well. Quite. Also worth noting the article is intrinsically defensive. London is a great city but its pre 2016 era of being (imv) the best city in Europe are long gone.
helenebismarck.bsky.social
I adore London&fully agree on Dubai, but the author‘s criticism of Paris& Berlin is a joke. French political turmoil is bad is it? Have you watched UK news since 2014? German trains are slow? Thank God for the sound state of UK Infrastructure.
Love you 🇬🇧. But ditch the superiority complex. Please.
williamjtlane.bsky.social
Battleship.

What can I say, 🇬🇧's always been a naval power first and foremost.
katelynburns.com
Scotty dog
thatonegirlkendra.blacksky.app
Before the change, what was your go to monopoly piece?

I always wanted the iron
Reposted by William Lane
julienhoez.eu
The great French fifth republic, ladies and gentlemen
Reposted by William Lane
williamjtlane.bsky.social
That would be a direct challenge to Labour's concept of itself as the only viable centre-left vehicle in Britain, at the same time as the Greens start biting into their vote in the cities.

I can't predict what this will mean long term, but I suspect UK centre-left politics is due for a shakeup.