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William Lane

@williamjtlane.bsky.social

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Policy, Public Affairs and Electoral Analysis 'Political Analyst' - Aaron H. Ellis Views my own Writes at https://medium.com/@williamjtlane

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William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 9d

NEW ARTICLE

Well I promised a deep electoral dive for Labour's Conference special, and here it is!

Read about the ongoing fall of Labour's 2024 success in the South of England, and what that could mean for a potential Lib-Lab pact in 2029.

open.substack.com/pub/williamj...

Is Labour's Support Draining Out of the South?

Only a year on from a stunning political upset in the South East, Labour’s support appears to be draining away incredibly fast. Is this trend reversible, or are Labour on course for a major reversal?

open.substack.com

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William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 5h

I get that in the medium to long term, but how do you deal with the tax shortfall in the meantime? It's not a small amount.

William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 17h

Given this is the case, what is the progressive argument (if any) for abolishing stamp duty?

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William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 1d

It's honestly baffling to see people talk about university degrees, without giving a thought to the potential students who will take those degrees.

Plus there is the obvious fact that what you do a degree in does not inherently go on to define your entire working life (especially nowadays).

Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 2d

If you want to win over younger voters, telling them they can't go to university is probably not going to help.

William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 2d

Yeah I've been minded to write something about how after a peroid of homogenisation we're now getting quite different results from pollsters.

That's probably a good thing, but it does mean house effects can have more influence.

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William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 2d

Interesting to see Reform slipping a bit, although Labour are still struggling.

The Lib Dems will be very pleased to come neck and neck with the Tories, especially on 17%. A consistent Lib-Con crossover is looking more and more likely.

Election Maps UK @electionmaps.uk · 3d

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 27% (-2)
LAB: 20% (-2)
CON: 17% (+1)
LDM: 17% (+2)
GRN: 12% (+1)
SNP: 4% (+1)

Via @yougov.co.uk, 5-6 Oct.
Changes w/ 28-29 Sep.

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William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 3d

A few things I noticed in northern Italian (near Venice) supermarkets:

1) lack of fresh fruit, aside from apples, satsumas, kiwis and peaches

2) they don't seem to care much for cream

3) so many kinds of salami, it rivals even the Germans

4) freshly made bread on site

5) no self checkout

William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 3d

I've heard that from @cosmichope.bsky.social directly :)

It does look like the current version of the Green Party is decisively towards the socialist left, but that could change in the future.

William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 3d

Unpopular Labour government bleeds out in the final two years, but Farage's bubble has already burst by that point. Tories get a new leader who starts landing some blows and get back into early-mid 20s territory, LDs remain stuck on 12% of the vote...

I could see it, as unlikely as it seems.

William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 3d

One of the few advantages the Lib Dems have over Labour, is that they appeal to Green voters far more.

Its potentially possible for the Libs to absorb the Green vote in seats they hold in a way Labour would struggle to do (at least under Starmer).

Naomi Smith @pimlicat.bsky.social · 4d

Despite Zack's pivot of the Party leftwards, Green Party members are warmer to the Lib Dems than they are to Labour. But then Zack did used to be a Lib Dem!

YouGov @yougov.co.uk · 6d

🧵/ With the Green Party conference ongoing, we looked at the views of Green members

% of members with a favourable view of...

Carla Denyer: 85%
Zack Polanski: 79%
Sian Berry: 78%
Adrian Ramsay: 60%
Ellie Chowns: 59%

Jeremy Corbyn: 83%
Ed Davey: 58%
Keir Starmer: 18%

yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

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William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 4d

'I say to you again, do not call up any that you cannot put down'

For all his sins, Lovecraft had some great lines.

William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 4d

While the ideological shrinkage is largely the result of internal party culture, the reason it could even happen in the first place is because of the hollowing out of the main parties.

When you command 45% of the vote and 2 million members, it's basically impossible to be taken over by a clique.

William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 4d

As it turns out there were a lot of people in the UK who would rather vote for a specific party that represented their views/interests better than a scattered tendency within a larger party was able to.

As a result, our post-war two party system broke down in the late 70s and never recovered.

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William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 4d

While I agree with this thread overall, I think this gets the causation backwards.

The two parties had their highest vote % and membership base between 1951-1974, and they've been declining ever since as first the Liberals, then the Lib Dems, then the Greens, then UKIP began to eat into their vote.

Robert Saunders @robertsaunders.bsky.social · 4d

But it's no accident that, as the two parties have shrunk ideologically, so they've also shed large parts of their electoral base.

There have always been multiple versions of right & left-wing politics. If the Conservative & Labour parties will no longer provide a home for them, other parties will.

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William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 4d

Yeah I posted about this a few months ago.

Fundamentally the Lib Dems would have to remake their entire party in order to become credible as the main centre-right party in the UK, and in doing so would lose almost their entire existing voter and activist base. It *might* work, but at massive cost.

Dylan Difford @dylandifford.bsky.social · 4d

Broadly. Fundamentally, the average Lib Dem voter thinks very similarly to the average Labour voter (except on a few issues), though they do look a little different. If there's a Lib Dem resurgence due to the collapse of one of the historic two, it's not the Tories.

William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 4d

Listening to Tories talking about how 'unserious' Davey is is giving me flashbacks to Tories talking about how 'unserious' Farage was circa 2012.

William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 4d

The only exception to this is if the Tory Party just totally collapses, in which case I'd expect some of the remaining Tory left to vote LD in 2029.

But most would abstain or vote for independent/local conservative candidates IMO.

William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 4d

Yeah this is why I just don't think there's any real space for the Lib Dems to move right.

There aren't many more Tory votes for them to gain (at most maybe 2-3%) and there's a lot they could lose to the Greens or a resurgent Labour.

williamjtlane.substack.com/p/keeping-th...

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William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 4d

I'd nuance this by saying that if you take the 100 year view, the right tends to win elections in the UK.

Whereas if you take the 30 year view... the right has only won a majority twice in 8 elections.

I'm also very unconvinced that Reform can replicate the Tories 20th Century dominance.

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William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 4d

And I do think international sporting success since the 90s is a big part of why I feel that way (plus growing up in the 2000s).

Interestingly I've heard a similar (and perhaps greater) disconnect between younger and older perceptions of nation in Ireland, so maybe this is a broader phenomenon.

William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 4d

My view of Britain (and England) is of a self-confident, outward looking nation, which is why I felt a lot of rhetoric during the Brexit period very alienating.

(the pro-Brexit side presenting the UK as a put upon underdog, the Remain side presenting the UK as unable to survive outside the EU).

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William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 4d

I think there's a cultural cache of 'England v the World' in the post-war period that I experienced through cultural osmosis (especially films like The Italian Job and the early Bonds), but that I don't especially relate to.

It feels like a relic of a bygone era to me.

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William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 4d

...and Team GB consistently coming top 10 in the Olympics.

And that's not even touching womens sport, where the Lionesses and Red Roses are thriving!

My formative sporting memory was probably the 2012 Olympics, which sold a vision of a confident, outgoing Britain rather than an underdog story.

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William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 4d

And not just in Football either, you had the Rugby win in 2003, and the national team has (broadly) been in the global top 5 since then.

Plus Murray as one of Tennis' Big 4 and McIlroy in Golf (yes they're British rather than English, but at least for me that doesn't matter).

Then Hamilton in F1..

William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 4d

This is really interesting, as it chimes with my experience

I've never been into football, but if you were to ask me what my equivalent of '30 years of hurt' was, it'd definitely be the 2021 final loss (that hurt in a way last years just didn't)

I also think it's partly just that 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 are good now!

Will Cooling @willcooling.bsky.social · 4d

I wrote about how Rupert Lowe complaining about not being able to make WW2 jokes was a good example of this; maybe that's not woke but changes in actual football (England beat Germany more often, Germany a more likeable side, greater German role in EPL) itcouldbesaid.substack.com/p/it-could-b...

It Could Be Said #68 Father Time Rather Than Woke Keeps Beating Old Men

Will looks at why the passage of time waits for no man, not even Rupert Lowe

itcouldbesaid.substack.com

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William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 5d

All of this make me wonder what exactly Labour's role is if our politics is going to polarise between 'liberal' and 'reactionary' camps.

I'd assume in the long term the party will move towards the 'liberal' group, if only because that's where their voters are. But it may try not to pick a side.