Philippe J. Fournier
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338canada.bsky.social
Philippe J. Fournier
@338canada.bsky.social
Editor-in-Chief 338Canada丨Rédacteur en chef Qc125丨Chroniqueur @ L'actualité, The Walrus & Politico Canada丨Co-host The Numbers podcast丨Prof astronomy & astrophysics丨Occasional cat pictures🤍丨📍Montréal
🔴Charles qui ? Milliard devant une page blanche

📊Les libéraux auront (encore) un nouveau chef, sans antécédents politiques, mais aussi sans notoriété. Ce qui, selon les sondages actuels, peut s’avérer une force ou une faiblesse. Ma chronique ↓ lactualite.com/politique/ch...
Charles qui ? Milliard devant une page blanche
Les libéraux auront (encore) un nouveau chef, sans antécédents politiques, mais aussi sans notoriété. Ce qui, selon les sondages actuels, peut s'avérer une force ou une faiblesse.
lactualite.com
February 12, 2026 at 10:02 PM
📊Ontario provincial voting intentions from Abacus Data:

🔵PC 44%
🔴OLP 30%
🟠NDP 16%
🟢GPO 6%

338canada.com/ontario/2026...

[Abacus Data, February 5-10, 2026, n=1,001]

#ONpoli
338Canada Ontario | Abacus Data poll, February 2026
338canada.com
February 12, 2026 at 9:59 PM
🍁Polls point to a widening gap between party strength and leader popularity.

📊Conservatives Are Competitive. Pierre Poilievre Isn’t, my latest for @thewalrus.cathewalrus.ca/conservative...
Conservatives Are Competitive. Pierre Poilievre Isn’t | The Walrus
Polls point to a widening gap between party strength and leader popularity
thewalrus.ca
February 10, 2026 at 5:39 PM
📊Preferred PM, Nanos Research tracker (Jan. 16-Feb.6, 2026)

🔴53% Mark Carney (+4)
🔵24% Pierre Poilievre (-3)

(Comparison with Nanos' previous 4-week wave)

www.338canada.ca/p/no-sign-of...
No Sign of a Post-Convention Bump for Poilievre
New polls released in the week following the Calgary convention show little movement toward the Conservatives and, in many cases, a widening Liberal lead.
www.338canada.ca
February 10, 2026 at 2:27 PM
📊New polls released in the week following the Calgary convention show little movement toward the Conservatives and, in many cases, a widening Liberal lead.

🔵No Sign of a Post-Convention Bump for Poilievre ↓ www.338canada.ca/p/no-sign-of...
No Sign of a Post-Convention Bump for Poilievre
New polls released in the week following the Calgary convention show little movement toward the Conservatives and, in many cases, a widening Liberal lead.
www.338canada.ca
February 10, 2026 at 1:36 PM
📊Federal 🇨🇦 voting intentions from Research Co.:

🔴LPC 45%
🔵CPC 32%
🟠NDP 10%
⚜️BQ 7% (29% in QC)
🟢GPC 3%
🟣PPC 2%

338canada.com/20260205-res...

[Research Co., February 4-6, 2026, n=1,001]

#canpoli
338Canada | Research Co. federal poll, February 2026
338canada.com
February 9, 2026 at 5:19 PM
📊Angus Reid Institute: "If a referendum was held on Alberta separation, would you vote for Alberta to leave Canada and become its own independent country or stay in Canada?"

All respondents:
🔴65% Stay
🔵30% Leave

CPC voters:
🔵49% Leave
🔴45% Stay

www.338canada.ca/p/alberta-in...
Alberta Independence: Many Leaners, but Few Committed Separatists
Among independence supporters, half would view joining the United States favourably.
www.338canada.ca
February 9, 2026 at 4:02 PM
📊Alberta Independence: Many Leaners, but Few Committed Separatists

Among independence supporters, half would view joining the United States favourably, according to the Angus Reid Institute ↓ www.338canada.ca/p/alberta-in...
Alberta Independence: Many Leaners, but Few Committed Separatists
Among independence supporters, half would view joining the United States favourably.
www.338canada.ca
February 9, 2026 at 3:22 PM
338Canada🍁federal update | February 8, 2026

🔴LPC 175
--------------------majority: 172 seats
🔵CPC 134
⚜️BQ 26
🟠NDP 7
🟢GPC 1

Details here → www.338canada.ca/p/338-sunday...

All the numbers → 338canada.com/federal.htm
February 9, 2026 at 1:00 AM
🍁338 Sunday Update: Liberals Edge Back Into Majority Territory

📊Recent polling shows rising Liberal numbers across key regions, while NDP support slips close to last spring’s disastrous levels. www.338canada.ca/p/338-sunday...
338 Sunday Update: Liberals Edge Back Into Majority Territory
Recent polling shows rising Liberal numbers across key regions, while NDP support slips close to last spring’s disastrous levels.
www.338canada.ca
February 8, 2026 at 11:03 PM
💰Mark Carney’s first year as LPC leader reshapes the federal money race, even as Conservatives maintain an overall fundraising edge.

📊Fundraising Gap Narrows as Liberals Close In on Conservatives, the latest from @canadianpolling.bsky.social for 338 ↓ www.338canada.ca/p/fundraisin...
Fundraising Gap Narrows as Liberals Close In on Conservatives
Mark Carney’s first year as leader reshapes the federal money race, even as Conservatives maintain an overall fundraising edge.
www.338canada.ca
February 6, 2026 at 4:33 PM
🕯️Faibles lueurs au bout du tunnel pour la CAQ

📊Avec Christine Fréchette à sa tête, la CAQ ne serait pas sortie du bois, mais le parti éviterait peut-être la disparition, ma chronique avec des chiffres de Léger ↓ lactualite.com/politique/fa...
Faibles lueurs au bout du tunnel pour la CAQ
Avec Christine Fréchette à sa tête, la CAQ ne serait pas sortie du bois, mais le parti éviterait peut-être la disparition. Cela reste toutefois des projections fragiles, susceptibles d'être modifiées ...
lactualite.com
February 5, 2026 at 9:29 PM
📊The Numbers: Poilievre Prevails in Calgary but Trails in the Polls

🎧 @ericgrenier.bsky.social and I discuss the CPC Convention and the latest polls ↓ www.338canada.ca/p/the-number...
The Numbers: Poilievre Prevails in Calgary but Trails in the Polls
We are set for a Poilievre-Carney rematch.
www.338canada.ca
February 3, 2026 at 10:37 PM
📊New episode of The Numbers: Poilievre prevails in Calgary but trails in the polls

🎧Members get it first and ad-free ↓ www.patreon.com/posts/video-...
(VIDEO) Poilievre prevails in Calgary but trails in the polls | The Numbers / Les chiffres
Get more from The Numbers / Les chiffres on Patreon
www.patreon.com
February 3, 2026 at 6:06 PM
📊Mise à jour Qc125 | 3 février 2026

⚜️PQ 73
-------------------Majorité : 63 sièges
🔴PLQ 40
⚫️PCQ 8
🟠QS 4
🔵CAQ 0

Détails ici → qc125.com
Qc125 | Sondages et projections électorales
qc125.com
February 3, 2026 at 4:41 PM
📊Preferred PM, Nanos Research tracker (Jan. 9-30, 2026)

🔴54% Mark Carney (+5)
🔵25% Pierre Poilievre (-1)

(Comparison with Nanos' previous 4-week wave)

338canada.com/20260130-nan...
338Canada | Nanos Research federal poll, January 2026
338canada.com
February 3, 2026 at 1:58 PM
⚜️Mise à jour Qc125 : le PQ toujours majoritaire, malgré un écart réduit

📊Le dernier sondage Léger resserre l’écart en tête et élargit la fourchette de résultats possibles dans la projection de sièges ↓ www.qc125.ca/p/mise-a-jou...
Mise à jour Qc125 : le PQ toujours majoritaire, malgré un écart réduit
Le dernier sondage Léger resserre l’écart en tête et élargit la fourchette de résultats possibles dans la projection de sièges.
www.qc125.ca
February 3, 2026 at 1:34 PM
338Canada🍁federal update | February 1, 2026

Details here → 338canada.com/federal.htm

Find your riding here → 338canada.com/districts.htm
February 2, 2026 at 6:04 PM
⚜️Le PQ demeure en tête, mais son avance s’effrite. La course à la chefferie de la CAQ s’invite dans l’équation.

📊Le portrait de 2026 devient plus en plus incertain. Ma chronique ↓
www.qc125.ca/p/ca-se-corse
Ça se corse
Le PQ demeure en tête, mais son avance s’effrite. La course à la chefferie de la CAQ s’invite dans l’équation. Le portrait de 2026 devient plus en plus incertain.
www.qc125.ca
February 2, 2026 at 1:51 PM
📊Federal 🇨🇦 voting intentions from Liaison Strategies:

🔴LPC 43%
🔵CPC 35%
🟠NDP 8%
⚜️BQ 7% (33% in QC)
🟢GPC 3%
🟣PPC 2%

338canada.com/20260125-lia...

[Liaison Strategies, January 19-31, 2026, n=1,000]

#canpoli
338Canada | Liaison Strategies federal poll, January 2026
338canada.com
February 2, 2026 at 12:32 PM
📊Qc125 aux Coulisses du pouvoir pour analyser les derniers chiffres fédéraux

🎧 www.qc125.ca/p/qc125-aux-...
Qc125 aux Coulisses du pouvoir
En direct de Calgary, nous jetons un coup d'oeil aux derniers chiffres fédéraux.
www.qc125.ca
February 1, 2026 at 9:51 PM
📊338 Sunday Update: Liberals Pull Ahead as Poilievre Clears Leadership Review

🍁Conservative delegates in Calgary give Poilievre a strong mandate, setting the stage for a potential rematch with Mark Carney. My latest ↓ www.338canada.ca/p/338-sunday...
338 Sunday Update: Liberals Pull Ahead as Poilievre Clears Leadership Review
Conservative delegates in Calgary give Poilievre a strong mandate, setting the stage for a potential rematch with Mark Carney.
www.338canada.ca
February 1, 2026 at 3:39 PM
📊From last episode of The Numbers, recorded Tuesday Jan. 27, 2026

(In this context, boring = good)

📺YouTube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=N30A...

✅Become a member: www.patreon.com/cw/thenumber...
January 31, 2026 at 9:33 PM
📊Special episode of The Numbers! Live(-ish) from the Conservative Convention

🎧Listen or watch here: www.patreon.com/posts/video-...
(VIDEO) Live(-ish) from the Conservative Convention | The Numbers / Les chiffres
Get more from The Numbers / Les chiffres on Patreon
www.patreon.com
January 31, 2026 at 6:07 PM
📊Léger : "Si un référendum avait lieu sur la souveraineté du Québec, voteriez-vous POUR ou CONTRE la souveraineté du Québec?" (27-29 janvier 2026)

🔴62% Contre
🔵29% Pour

qc125.com/20260128-leg...
Qc125 Québec | Sondage souveraineté Léger, janvier 2026
qc125.com
January 31, 2026 at 4:15 PM