Abstruse Zebra
@abstrusezebra.bsky.social
Posts about African and Asian security and politics.
From Australia.
From Australia.
While I have been reluctant to comment on Iranian protests as most are eventually violently suppressed, the current set have officially become concerning for Tehran over the last 72 hours or so. While I still expect them to be suppressed, Iran is in perpetual crisis.
apnews.com/article/iran...
apnews.com/article/iran...
What to know about the protests now shaking Iran as tensions remain high over its nuclear program
Protests in Iran are intensifying due to the country's struggling economy, putting pressure on its theocracy.
apnews.com
January 5, 2026 at 8:28 AM
While I have been reluctant to comment on Iranian protests as most are eventually violently suppressed, the current set have officially become concerning for Tehran over the last 72 hours or so. While I still expect them to be suppressed, Iran is in perpetual crisis.
apnews.com/article/iran...
apnews.com/article/iran...
Trump in his victory lap doesn't even pretend to pay lip service to the legitimate democratic aspirations of the Venezuelan people. The regime is to be allowed to survive and even encouraged as long as they pay protection money in the form of their oil reserves. Disgusting.
The ongoing US attack on Venezuela is illegal and with little strategic purpose. A nakedly imperialist adventure by the "President of Peace".
January 3, 2026 at 9:37 PM
Trump in his victory lap doesn't even pretend to pay lip service to the legitimate democratic aspirations of the Venezuelan people. The regime is to be allowed to survive and even encouraged as long as they pay protection money in the form of their oil reserves. Disgusting.
The STC just rolled over, their state of South Arabia collapsed within hours of its announcement. Almost all gains the STC made during their December offensive have been reversed.
The ongoing fighting between Saudi Arabia and the UAE's STC proxies in Yemen, threatens to destabilise the wider Middle East. The UAE's imperialist ambitions might finally have outstretched its capability.
Yemen's STC aims to hold an independence referendum in two years reut.rs/49kLTOD
January 3, 2026 at 9:34 PM
The STC just rolled over, their state of South Arabia collapsed within hours of its announcement. Almost all gains the STC made during their December offensive have been reversed.
Reposted by Abstruse Zebra
The US struck Venezuela and captured President Nicolas Maduro, who was taken out of the country, President Trump said. It is the first such direct intervention by the US in Latin America since the invasion of Panama in 1989 reut.rs/4qsMC72
January 3, 2026 at 10:06 AM
The US struck Venezuela and captured President Nicolas Maduro, who was taken out of the country, President Trump said. It is the first such direct intervention by the US in Latin America since the invasion of Panama in 1989 reut.rs/4qsMC72
The ongoing US attack on Venezuela is illegal and with little strategic purpose. A nakedly imperialist adventure by the "President of Peace".
January 3, 2026 at 6:52 AM
The ongoing US attack on Venezuela is illegal and with little strategic purpose. A nakedly imperialist adventure by the "President of Peace".
The ongoing fighting between Saudi Arabia and the UAE's STC proxies in Yemen, threatens to destabilise the wider Middle East. The UAE's imperialist ambitions might finally have outstretched its capability.
Yemen's STC aims to hold an independence referendum in two years reut.rs/49kLTOD
Yemen's STC aims to hold an independence referendum in two years
Yemen's southern separatist movement said on Friday it aims to hold a referendum on independence from the north in two years following its seizure of swathes of the country last month in a move that triggered a major feud between Gulf powers.
reut.rs
January 2, 2026 at 10:32 PM
The ongoing fighting between Saudi Arabia and the UAE's STC proxies in Yemen, threatens to destabilise the wider Middle East. The UAE's imperialist ambitions might finally have outstretched its capability.
The scale of the RSF's crimes in El-Fasher is nearly impossible to fathom.
www.reuters.com/world/africa...
www.reuters.com/world/africa...
Aid workers find little life in Sudan's al-Fashir after paramilitary takeover
International aid staff who accessed Sudan's al-Fashir for the first time since its takeover by a paramilitary force found the city largely deserted, with a few people sheltering in buildings or under...
www.reuters.com
December 30, 2025 at 12:44 PM
The scale of the RSF's crimes in El-Fasher is nearly impossible to fathom.
www.reuters.com/world/africa...
www.reuters.com/world/africa...
Thailand is accusing Cambodia of violating the ceasefire with another land mine incident and violating Thai airspace with a large number of drones. Thailand is considering suspending the planned prisoner return at the end of the ceasefire. They want Cambodia to walk away and the war to resume.
The ceasefire has been formally signed, though I still remain unsure of Thailand's authenticity.
72 hour ceasefire agreed between Thailand and Cambodia though with the extensive expectations management by Bangkok and quite aggressive conditions for unilaterally rejecting the ceasefire, I remain unconvinced this represents a serious attempt to end the war.
December 29, 2025 at 11:50 AM
Thailand is accusing Cambodia of violating the ceasefire with another land mine incident and violating Thai airspace with a large number of drones. Thailand is considering suspending the planned prisoner return at the end of the ceasefire. They want Cambodia to walk away and the war to resume.
The recognition of Somaliland by Israel is likely to be followed by recognition from Israeli and UAE allies over the coming months. Most interesting to watch will be how many African states recognize Somaliland as the continent increasingly rejects colonial borders.
www.reuters.com/world/middle...
www.reuters.com/world/middle...
Israel becomes first country to formally recognise Somaliland as independent state
Israel became the first country to formally recognise the self-declared Republic of Somaliland as an independent and sovereign state on Friday -- a decision that could reshape regional dynamics and te...
www.reuters.com
December 27, 2025 at 4:19 AM
The recognition of Somaliland by Israel is likely to be followed by recognition from Israeli and UAE allies over the coming months. Most interesting to watch will be how many African states recognize Somaliland as the continent increasingly rejects colonial borders.
www.reuters.com/world/middle...
www.reuters.com/world/middle...
The ceasefire has been formally signed, though I still remain unsure of Thailand's authenticity.
72 hour ceasefire agreed between Thailand and Cambodia though with the extensive expectations management by Bangkok and quite aggressive conditions for unilaterally rejecting the ceasefire, I remain unconvinced this represents a serious attempt to end the war.
December 27, 2025 at 3:54 AM
The ceasefire has been formally signed, though I still remain unsure of Thailand's authenticity.
72 hour ceasefire agreed between Thailand and Cambodia though with the extensive expectations management by Bangkok and quite aggressive conditions for unilaterally rejecting the ceasefire, I remain unconvinced this represents a serious attempt to end the war.
December 26, 2025 at 12:17 PM
72 hour ceasefire agreed between Thailand and Cambodia though with the extensive expectations management by Bangkok and quite aggressive conditions for unilaterally rejecting the ceasefire, I remain unconvinced this represents a serious attempt to end the war.
Thailand's policy of destroying Cambodian monuments and cultural sites in taken areas is not only cruel but also counterproductive as it inflames tensions with countries like India who might otherwise be sympathetic to Thailand in this war.
www.thehindu.com/news/nationa...
www.thehindu.com/news/nationa...
India expresses concern over demolition of Hindu deity’s statue in Thailand-Cambodia conflict
India expresses concern over the demolition of a Hindu deity's statue amid the Thailand-Cambodia border conflict, urging dialogue.
www.thehindu.com
December 25, 2025 at 7:19 AM
Thailand's policy of destroying Cambodian monuments and cultural sites in taken areas is not only cruel but also counterproductive as it inflames tensions with countries like India who might otherwise be sympathetic to Thailand in this war.
www.thehindu.com/news/nationa...
www.thehindu.com/news/nationa...
The only concrete success of Trump's deal making approach to peacemaking in Africa has occurred today. American pressure has forced M23 and Rwanda to withdraw from the recently captured city of Uvira. This is not peace, Rwanda has previously used withdrawals to avoid foreign interference in its war.
December 16, 2025 at 12:13 PM
The only concrete success of Trump's deal making approach to peacemaking in Africa has occurred today. American pressure has forced M23 and Rwanda to withdraw from the recently captured city of Uvira. This is not peace, Rwanda has previously used withdrawals to avoid foreign interference in its war.
Thailand's announced intent to impose a partial de facto blockade on Cambodia represents a dangerous escalation in an already dangerous local war. It not only extends the geography of the battlefield across Cambodia, it also threatens regional shipping and increases the risk of the war spreading.
December 16, 2025 at 12:10 PM
Thailand's announced intent to impose a partial de facto blockade on Cambodia represents a dangerous escalation in an already dangerous local war. It not only extends the geography of the battlefield across Cambodia, it also threatens regional shipping and increases the risk of the war spreading.
Trump's attempt to secure a new ceasefire has failed so has. He has managed to anger Thailand and even Cambodia refused to commit to anything with him.
December 13, 2025 at 3:36 AM
Trump's attempt to secure a new ceasefire has failed so has. He has managed to anger Thailand and even Cambodia refused to commit to anything with him.
Eritrea once more rejects regional multilateralism which it has always seen as Western or Ethiopian puppetry.
addisstandard.com/breaking-eri...
addisstandard.com/breaking-eri...
addisstandard.com
December 12, 2025 at 12:38 PM
Eritrea once more rejects regional multilateralism which it has always seen as Western or Ethiopian puppetry.
addisstandard.com/breaking-eri...
addisstandard.com/breaking-eri...
Seems like Thailand has decided to stay in many areas beyond previously disputed territory. Thailand is redrawing what is defined as disputed territory to legitimize a series of occupations to redraw the border to be more favorable.
Thailand is rapidly raising the stakes against Cambodia and escalating violence. They appear to have advanced beyond just the disputed territories to occupy undisputed Cambodian territory. Hopefully this is just leverage for future negotiations, but if the war drags on Thai ambitions may expand.
It took longer than I thought, but clashes have resumed with high intensity.
December 12, 2025 at 8:29 AM
Seems like Thailand has decided to stay in many areas beyond previously disputed territory. Thailand is redrawing what is defined as disputed territory to legitimize a series of occupations to redraw the border to be more favorable.
South Sudan has finally achieved one of its great foreign policy goals since independence, control over Heglig. Negotiated with the RSF it does seem likely to deepen South Sudanese ties with the RSF and draw South Sudan further into the war.
December 11, 2025 at 12:46 PM
South Sudan has finally achieved one of its great foreign policy goals since independence, control over Heglig. Negotiated with the RSF it does seem likely to deepen South Sudanese ties with the RSF and draw South Sudan further into the war.
The city of Uvira has fallen to M23's rapid advance cutting the DRC off from a land connection to their ally in Burundi. M23 has a stranglehold over almost all of Kivu and Rwanda is emboldened by the weak US response to their clear breaches of any agreement they make. What will Kagame do next?
Fighting has reached a crescendo ahead of new talks this week in Washington between Rwanda and the DRC. The US has made no attempt to enforce even the letter of these declarations in the face of provocations by both sides (but especially Rwanda and M23) ensuring further collapse of state authority.
M23 and the DRC have signed another in principle peace agreement. I expect it to have about as much success and impact as the last two. Since signing there have already been several major battles which doesn't seem to bode well.
December 10, 2025 at 12:10 PM
The city of Uvira has fallen to M23's rapid advance cutting the DRC off from a land connection to their ally in Burundi. M23 has a stranglehold over almost all of Kivu and Rwanda is emboldened by the weak US response to their clear breaches of any agreement they make. What will Kagame do next?
Thailand is rapidly raising the stakes against Cambodia and escalating violence. They appear to have advanced beyond just the disputed territories to occupy undisputed Cambodian territory. Hopefully this is just leverage for future negotiations, but if the war drags on Thai ambitions may expand.
It took longer than I thought, but clashes have resumed with high intensity.
The fragile Thai-Cambodian peace accord threatens to collapse as Thailand "suspends" the agreement.
apnews.com/article/thai...
apnews.com/article/thai...
December 9, 2025 at 12:18 PM
Thailand is rapidly raising the stakes against Cambodia and escalating violence. They appear to have advanced beyond just the disputed territories to occupy undisputed Cambodian territory. Hopefully this is just leverage for future negotiations, but if the war drags on Thai ambitions may expand.
ECOWAS is stirred finally into deploying its standby force to Benin as the coup attempt there failed. Probably too little too late to save the group. Nigeria will have a difficult task both protecting itself and rallying the disparate and discordant remaining members of ECOWAS into decisive action.
December 8, 2025 at 1:55 AM
ECOWAS is stirred finally into deploying its standby force to Benin as the coup attempt there failed. Probably too little too late to save the group. Nigeria will have a difficult task both protecting itself and rallying the disparate and discordant remaining members of ECOWAS into decisive action.
It took longer than I thought, but clashes have resumed with high intensity.
The fragile Thai-Cambodian peace accord threatens to collapse as Thailand "suspends" the agreement.
apnews.com/article/thai...
apnews.com/article/thai...
Thailand threatens to suspend truce with Cambodia after a land mine injures troops
Thailand has threatened to suspend a U.S.-brokered ceasefire with Cambodia. This comes after a land mine explosion injured four Thai soldiers on Monday.
apnews.com
December 8, 2025 at 1:53 AM
It took longer than I thought, but clashes have resumed with high intensity.
Fighting has reached a crescendo ahead of new talks this week in Washington between Rwanda and the DRC. The US has made no attempt to enforce even the letter of these declarations in the face of provocations by both sides (but especially Rwanda and M23) ensuring further collapse of state authority.
M23 and the DRC have signed another in principle peace agreement. I expect it to have about as much success and impact as the last two. Since signing there have already been several major battles which doesn't seem to bode well.
December 3, 2025 at 12:36 PM
Fighting has reached a crescendo ahead of new talks this week in Washington between Rwanda and the DRC. The US has made no attempt to enforce even the letter of these declarations in the face of provocations by both sides (but especially Rwanda and M23) ensuring further collapse of state authority.
M23 and the DRC have signed another in principle peace agreement. I expect it to have about as much success and impact as the last two. Since signing there have already been several major battles which doesn't seem to bode well.
November 15, 2025 at 12:36 PM
M23 and the DRC have signed another in principle peace agreement. I expect it to have about as much success and impact as the last two. Since signing there have already been several major battles which doesn't seem to bode well.
Pakistan has blamed the Taliban in Afghanistan, a good war should help normalise and distract anger over the army's elimination of Pakistan's civilian facade.
BREAKING: Pakistan’s interior minister says a suicide bomber detonated his explosives near a police vehicle outside the gate of a district court in Islamabad, killing 12 people and wounding 27.
A car bomb outside an Islamabad court kills at least 11 people, Pakistani security officials say
Pakistani security officials say that a powerful car bomb that exploded outside a sprawling district court in Islamabad killed at least 11 people.
bit.ly
November 11, 2025 at 11:18 AM
Pakistan has blamed the Taliban in Afghanistan, a good war should help normalise and distract anger over the army's elimination of Pakistan's civilian facade.