Abstruse Zebra
@abstrusezebra.bsky.social
Posts about African and Asian security and politics.
From Australia.
From Australia.
Thailand is accusing Cambodia of violating the ceasefire with another land mine incident and violating Thai airspace with a large number of drones. Thailand is considering suspending the planned prisoner return at the end of the ceasefire. They want Cambodia to walk away and the war to resume.
The ceasefire has been formally signed, though I still remain unsure of Thailand's authenticity.
72 hour ceasefire agreed between Thailand and Cambodia though with the extensive expectations management by Bangkok and quite aggressive conditions for unilaterally rejecting the ceasefire, I remain unconvinced this represents a serious attempt to end the war.
December 29, 2025 at 11:50 AM
Thailand is accusing Cambodia of violating the ceasefire with another land mine incident and violating Thai airspace with a large number of drones. Thailand is considering suspending the planned prisoner return at the end of the ceasefire. They want Cambodia to walk away and the war to resume.
The recognition of Somaliland by Israel is likely to be followed by recognition from Israeli and UAE allies over the coming months. Most interesting to watch will be how many African states recognize Somaliland as the continent increasingly rejects colonial borders.
www.reuters.com/world/middle...
www.reuters.com/world/middle...
Israel becomes first country to formally recognise Somaliland as independent state
Israel became the first country to formally recognise the self-declared Republic of Somaliland as an independent and sovereign state on Friday -- a decision that could reshape regional dynamics and te...
www.reuters.com
December 27, 2025 at 4:19 AM
The recognition of Somaliland by Israel is likely to be followed by recognition from Israeli and UAE allies over the coming months. Most interesting to watch will be how many African states recognize Somaliland as the continent increasingly rejects colonial borders.
www.reuters.com/world/middle...
www.reuters.com/world/middle...
The ceasefire has been formally signed, though I still remain unsure of Thailand's authenticity.
72 hour ceasefire agreed between Thailand and Cambodia though with the extensive expectations management by Bangkok and quite aggressive conditions for unilaterally rejecting the ceasefire, I remain unconvinced this represents a serious attempt to end the war.
December 27, 2025 at 3:54 AM
The ceasefire has been formally signed, though I still remain unsure of Thailand's authenticity.
72 hour ceasefire agreed between Thailand and Cambodia though with the extensive expectations management by Bangkok and quite aggressive conditions for unilaterally rejecting the ceasefire, I remain unconvinced this represents a serious attempt to end the war.
December 26, 2025 at 12:17 PM
72 hour ceasefire agreed between Thailand and Cambodia though with the extensive expectations management by Bangkok and quite aggressive conditions for unilaterally rejecting the ceasefire, I remain unconvinced this represents a serious attempt to end the war.
Thailand's policy of destroying Cambodian monuments and cultural sites in taken areas is not only cruel but also counterproductive as it inflames tensions with countries like India who might otherwise be sympathetic to Thailand in this war.
www.thehindu.com/news/nationa...
www.thehindu.com/news/nationa...
India expresses concern over demolition of Hindu deity’s statue in Thailand-Cambodia conflict
India expresses concern over the demolition of a Hindu deity's statue amid the Thailand-Cambodia border conflict, urging dialogue.
www.thehindu.com
December 25, 2025 at 7:19 AM
Thailand's policy of destroying Cambodian monuments and cultural sites in taken areas is not only cruel but also counterproductive as it inflames tensions with countries like India who might otherwise be sympathetic to Thailand in this war.
www.thehindu.com/news/nationa...
www.thehindu.com/news/nationa...
The only concrete success of Trump's deal making approach to peacemaking in Africa has occurred today. American pressure has forced M23 and Rwanda to withdraw from the recently captured city of Uvira. This is not peace, Rwanda has previously used withdrawals to avoid foreign interference in its war.
December 16, 2025 at 12:13 PM
The only concrete success of Trump's deal making approach to peacemaking in Africa has occurred today. American pressure has forced M23 and Rwanda to withdraw from the recently captured city of Uvira. This is not peace, Rwanda has previously used withdrawals to avoid foreign interference in its war.
Thailand's announced intent to impose a partial de facto blockade on Cambodia represents a dangerous escalation in an already dangerous local war. It not only extends the geography of the battlefield across Cambodia, it also threatens regional shipping and increases the risk of the war spreading.
December 16, 2025 at 12:10 PM
Thailand's announced intent to impose a partial de facto blockade on Cambodia represents a dangerous escalation in an already dangerous local war. It not only extends the geography of the battlefield across Cambodia, it also threatens regional shipping and increases the risk of the war spreading.
Trump's attempt to secure a new ceasefire has failed so has. He has managed to anger Thailand and even Cambodia refused to commit to anything with him.
December 13, 2025 at 3:36 AM
Trump's attempt to secure a new ceasefire has failed so has. He has managed to anger Thailand and even Cambodia refused to commit to anything with him.
Eritrea once more rejects regional multilateralism which it has always seen as Western or Ethiopian puppetry.
addisstandard.com/breaking-eri...
addisstandard.com/breaking-eri...
addisstandard.com
December 12, 2025 at 12:38 PM
Eritrea once more rejects regional multilateralism which it has always seen as Western or Ethiopian puppetry.
addisstandard.com/breaking-eri...
addisstandard.com/breaking-eri...
Seems like Thailand has decided to stay in many areas beyond previously disputed territory. Thailand is redrawing what is defined as disputed territory to legitimize a series of occupations to redraw the border to be more favorable.
Thailand is rapidly raising the stakes against Cambodia and escalating violence. They appear to have advanced beyond just the disputed territories to occupy undisputed Cambodian territory. Hopefully this is just leverage for future negotiations, but if the war drags on Thai ambitions may expand.
It took longer than I thought, but clashes have resumed with high intensity.
December 12, 2025 at 8:29 AM
Seems like Thailand has decided to stay in many areas beyond previously disputed territory. Thailand is redrawing what is defined as disputed territory to legitimize a series of occupations to redraw the border to be more favorable.
South Sudan has finally achieved one of its great foreign policy goals since independence, control over Heglig. Negotiated with the RSF it does seem likely to deepen South Sudanese ties with the RSF and draw South Sudan further into the war.
December 11, 2025 at 12:46 PM
South Sudan has finally achieved one of its great foreign policy goals since independence, control over Heglig. Negotiated with the RSF it does seem likely to deepen South Sudanese ties with the RSF and draw South Sudan further into the war.
The city of Uvira has fallen to M23's rapid advance cutting the DRC off from a land connection to their ally in Burundi. M23 has a stranglehold over almost all of Kivu and Rwanda is emboldened by the weak US response to their clear breaches of any agreement they make. What will Kagame do next?
Fighting has reached a crescendo ahead of new talks this week in Washington between Rwanda and the DRC. The US has made no attempt to enforce even the letter of these declarations in the face of provocations by both sides (but especially Rwanda and M23) ensuring further collapse of state authority.
M23 and the DRC have signed another in principle peace agreement. I expect it to have about as much success and impact as the last two. Since signing there have already been several major battles which doesn't seem to bode well.
December 10, 2025 at 12:10 PM
The city of Uvira has fallen to M23's rapid advance cutting the DRC off from a land connection to their ally in Burundi. M23 has a stranglehold over almost all of Kivu and Rwanda is emboldened by the weak US response to their clear breaches of any agreement they make. What will Kagame do next?
Thailand is rapidly raising the stakes against Cambodia and escalating violence. They appear to have advanced beyond just the disputed territories to occupy undisputed Cambodian territory. Hopefully this is just leverage for future negotiations, but if the war drags on Thai ambitions may expand.
It took longer than I thought, but clashes have resumed with high intensity.
The fragile Thai-Cambodian peace accord threatens to collapse as Thailand "suspends" the agreement.
apnews.com/article/thai...
apnews.com/article/thai...
December 9, 2025 at 12:18 PM
Thailand is rapidly raising the stakes against Cambodia and escalating violence. They appear to have advanced beyond just the disputed territories to occupy undisputed Cambodian territory. Hopefully this is just leverage for future negotiations, but if the war drags on Thai ambitions may expand.
ECOWAS is stirred finally into deploying its standby force to Benin as the coup attempt there failed. Probably too little too late to save the group. Nigeria will have a difficult task both protecting itself and rallying the disparate and discordant remaining members of ECOWAS into decisive action.
December 8, 2025 at 1:55 AM
ECOWAS is stirred finally into deploying its standby force to Benin as the coup attempt there failed. Probably too little too late to save the group. Nigeria will have a difficult task both protecting itself and rallying the disparate and discordant remaining members of ECOWAS into decisive action.
It took longer than I thought, but clashes have resumed with high intensity.
The fragile Thai-Cambodian peace accord threatens to collapse as Thailand "suspends" the agreement.
apnews.com/article/thai...
apnews.com/article/thai...
Thailand threatens to suspend truce with Cambodia after a land mine injures troops
Thailand has threatened to suspend a U.S.-brokered ceasefire with Cambodia. This comes after a land mine explosion injured four Thai soldiers on Monday.
apnews.com
December 8, 2025 at 1:53 AM
It took longer than I thought, but clashes have resumed with high intensity.
Fighting has reached a crescendo ahead of new talks this week in Washington between Rwanda and the DRC. The US has made no attempt to enforce even the letter of these declarations in the face of provocations by both sides (but especially Rwanda and M23) ensuring further collapse of state authority.
M23 and the DRC have signed another in principle peace agreement. I expect it to have about as much success and impact as the last two. Since signing there have already been several major battles which doesn't seem to bode well.
December 3, 2025 at 12:36 PM
Fighting has reached a crescendo ahead of new talks this week in Washington between Rwanda and the DRC. The US has made no attempt to enforce even the letter of these declarations in the face of provocations by both sides (but especially Rwanda and M23) ensuring further collapse of state authority.
M23 and the DRC have signed another in principle peace agreement. I expect it to have about as much success and impact as the last two. Since signing there have already been several major battles which doesn't seem to bode well.
November 15, 2025 at 12:36 PM
M23 and the DRC have signed another in principle peace agreement. I expect it to have about as much success and impact as the last two. Since signing there have already been several major battles which doesn't seem to bode well.
Pakistan has blamed the Taliban in Afghanistan, a good war should help normalise and distract anger over the army's elimination of Pakistan's civilian facade.
BREAKING: Pakistan’s interior minister says a suicide bomber detonated his explosives near a police vehicle outside the gate of a district court in Islamabad, killing 12 people and wounding 27.
A car bomb outside an Islamabad court kills at least 11 people, Pakistani security officials say
Pakistani security officials say that a powerful car bomb that exploded outside a sprawling district court in Islamabad killed at least 11 people.
bit.ly
November 11, 2025 at 11:18 AM
Pakistan has blamed the Taliban in Afghanistan, a good war should help normalise and distract anger over the army's elimination of Pakistan's civilian facade.
The fragile Thai-Cambodian peace accord threatens to collapse as Thailand "suspends" the agreement.
apnews.com/article/thai...
apnews.com/article/thai...
Thailand threatens to suspend truce with Cambodia after a land mine injures troops
Thailand has threatened to suspend a U.S.-brokered ceasefire with Cambodia. This comes after a land mine explosion injured four Thai soldiers on Monday.
apnews.com
November 11, 2025 at 7:03 AM
The fragile Thai-Cambodian peace accord threatens to collapse as Thailand "suspends" the agreement.
apnews.com/article/thai...
apnews.com/article/thai...
After killing the country's internet and potentially more than 700 of her own citizens to suppress protests of course.
Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan won her country’s disputed election with more than 97% of the vote, according to official results announced early Saturday.
Tanzania President Hassan wins disputed election with more than 97% of vote, official results show
Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan has won her country’s disputed election with more than 97% of the vote.
bit.ly
November 1, 2025 at 10:14 AM
After killing the country's internet and potentially more than 700 of her own citizens to suppress protests of course.
Ethiopia has escalated their war of words again with Abiy denying Eritrea's right to exist and declaring that they would win any war and this Eritrea has no choice but to cede Assab, while ENDF defence chief has restated that they will take a port by any means necessary.
Abiy escalates rhetoric against Eritrea and the TPLF again, though the ENDF continue to struggle to contain Fano and one would think they lack the bandwidth for further military action.
addisstandard.com/ethiopia-acc...
addisstandard.com/ethiopia-acc...
October 30, 2025 at 1:43 AM
Ethiopia has escalated their war of words again with Abiy denying Eritrea's right to exist and declaring that they would win any war and this Eritrea has no choice but to cede Assab, while ENDF defence chief has restated that they will take a port by any means necessary.
The RSF broadcast their heinous crimes without fear knowing there is no desire to hold them accountable. An end to pointless bothsidesing and demands for a ceasefire which serves only to legitimise the RSF are required. The Sudanese Armed Forces for all their many flaws must destroy the RSF.
The fall of El-Fasher in Northern Darfur is likely one of the great humanitarian crises of our time and the world does nothing. The US even legitimises RSF propaganda that this ethnic cleansing and genocide is the result of poorly believed troops and not a matter of policy.
October 29, 2025 at 11:13 AM
The RSF broadcast their heinous crimes without fear knowing there is no desire to hold them accountable. An end to pointless bothsidesing and demands for a ceasefire which serves only to legitimise the RSF are required. The Sudanese Armed Forces for all their many flaws must destroy the RSF.
Only able to claim 53% of the vote, Biya likely suffered a major defeat but has claimed victory anyway. With the opposition having pledged to reject the official results, violence is sadly plausible.
apnews.com/article/came...
apnews.com/article/came...
October 27, 2025 at 11:27 AM
Only able to claim 53% of the vote, Biya likely suffered a major defeat but has claimed victory anyway. With the opposition having pledged to reject the official results, violence is sadly plausible.
apnews.com/article/came...
apnews.com/article/came...
The fall of El-Fasher in Northern Darfur is likely one of the great humanitarian crises of our time and the world does nothing. The US even legitimises RSF propaganda that this ethnic cleansing and genocide is the result of poorly believed troops and not a matter of policy.
October 27, 2025 at 10:58 AM
The fall of El-Fasher in Northern Darfur is likely one of the great humanitarian crises of our time and the world does nothing. The US even legitimises RSF propaganda that this ethnic cleansing and genocide is the result of poorly believed troops and not a matter of policy.