Adi Ćerimagić
@adicerimagic.bsky.social
420 followers 220 following 890 posts
Senior analyst at ESI. Western Balkans, EU, human rights, democracy & rule of law. Bridging the Western Balkans-EU gap.
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adicerimagic.bsky.social
But also its current reality, & what is still missing for it to be largely achieved by the end of this decade.

Available on #YouTube with Albanian subtitles 👇🏼

youtu.be/HVFlC7E8KNg?...
Ditmir Bushati & Adnan Ćerimagić - EU accession: hope or illusion? -Public Square EP.56
YouTube video by Ditmir Bushati
youtu.be
adicerimagic.bsky.social
In a #PublicSquare discussion with Ditmir Bushati, we spoke about the shared cross-generational dream of 🇪🇺 integration for the Western Balkans [+ 🇺🇦🇲🇩🇬🇪].
adicerimagic.bsky.social
The European Commission is even speaking of target years for finalising preparations for some candidates – and, with the exception of 🇭🇺 on 🇺🇦, without open backlash from member states.
adicerimagic.bsky.social
Decisions are being taken more quickly and smoothly than before 2022. Some candidate countries – notably 🇲🇩🇦🇱 – are making progress in their preparedness.
adicerimagic.bsky.social
It is not just a narrative on the new momentum. There is also a growing sense – in Brussels & other capitals – that 🇪🇺 #enlargement is truly back on the agenda.

With Ditmir #Bushati in his #PublicSquare 👇🏼
adicerimagic.bsky.social
For #radiosarajevo, I discussed the latest developments, the chances of HDZ BiH securing parliamentary support for its demands, and the current mood within the international community regarding possible imposition.

in a language understood across 🇧🇦 👇🏼

radiosarajevo.ba/vijesti/bosn...
Adnan Ćerimagić za Radiosarajevo.ba: HDZ BiH neće odustati, pitanje je ko će pristati
Ove godine obilježava se dvadeset pet godina otkako HDZ BiH, zajedno s nekoliko drugih stranaka, kao svoje najvažnije političko pitanje i problem ističe procedure koje se odnose na izbor delegata u do...
radiosarajevo.ba
adicerimagic.bsky.social
During that time only two changes have ever moved in HDZ BiH’s direction: first, when the Central Election Commission implemented the 2018 electoral results; and second, when the High Representative imposed amendments after the 2022 elections. Both times unrelated to the presidency.
adicerimagic.bsky.social
in 2016 through a legal challenge before the Constitutional Court; and in 2018 by blocking the implementation of election results at the Federation level. Throughout all reform attempts mediated by outsiders – from 2006 to 2022 – the party has kept this demand on the table.
adicerimagic.bsky.social
Over the past 25 years, different HDZ BiH leaders have tried different methods: in 2001 through a unilateral and illegal declaration of the “Croat self-administration”;
adicerimagic.bsky.social
This year marks a quarter century of #HDZBiH’s efforts to change 🇧🇦’s electoral law.

The goal: to ensure that one member of the presidency and (almost) all seats in the Croat caucuses of 🇧🇦’s upper parliamentary chambers are elected from areas with Croat majorities.
adicerimagic.bsky.social
Next Friday at Europe House in #Belgrade, we will discuss the European Union’s evolving global role and its foreign policy in the Western #Balkans.

🇷🇸🇪🇺

www.isac-fund.org/en/event/con...

International and Security Affairs Centre - #ISAC
adicerimagic.bsky.social
Dear young leaders from 🇷🇸🇧🇦🇲🇪,

Applications are now open for #BOLD25 Balkan Regional Youth Leadership Workshop: Community Engagement in the 21st Century, organised by Bard College’s Center for Civic Engagement.

📅 Deadline: 25 October 2025
🔗 Learn more and apply via the links below ⬇️
adicerimagic.bsky.social
This would unlock genuine reforms. Not all would join at the same time, but the momentum would return. That is what matters.
adicerimagic.bsky.social
🇪🇺 therefore needs to set a clear date by which it will be ready to welcome the prepared candidates, whether as full members or as fully part of the single market – just as it set 2002 as a target year in 1999 for the 10 + 2 enlargement.
adicerimagic.bsky.social
My answer:

Without a clear, concrete, and achievable goal, no Western Balkan country will be ready or join in this decade.
adicerimagic.bsky.social
The Spanish daily El Mundo where according to last month’s #Eurobarometer 67 percent of 🇪🇸 citizens support enlargement [including 🇽🇰: 53 percent], asked how to turn this talk of new momentum into a real process that leads to genuine reforms and full membership.
adicerimagic.bsky.social
And yes, according to the last Commission report from October 2024, some candidates like [🇲🇩 and] 🇦🇱 have made progress not seen in years in their level of preparedness for 🇪🇺 membership, at this pace no candidate – including 🇲🇪 – will be ready to join by 2030.
adicerimagic.bsky.social
Indeed, the journey towards 🇪🇺 membership has, for the six Western Balkan states, turned into a decades-long walk through the desert.

Since 2022, many have spoken of new momentum. And while, yes, the #EU27 have taken more decisions and done so more quickly.
adicerimagic.bsky.social
Furthermore, support in 🇬🇷 for 🇽🇰’s bid (44 percent) exceeds that for 🇺🇦 (41), 🇦🇱 (39), 🇲🇰 (37), and 🇹🇷 (22), and equals 🇬🇪 (44).

In 🇨🇾, support for 🇽🇰 (40 percent) is higher than for 🇦🇱 (34) and 🇹🇷 (13), and equals 🇬🇪 (40).

Could this help 🇽🇰's bid? It should.
adicerimagic.bsky.social
In 🇪🇸 and 🇷🇴 – over half support 🇽🇰’s membership.
In 🇸🇰 – more support than opposition.
In 🇬🇷 & 🇨🇾 – opposition higher, but support remains above 40 percent.
adicerimagic.bsky.social
The last month's #Eurobarometer shows how citizens in these five countries view #Kosovo’s #EU bid:

Across the #EU5 non-recognisers, 47 percent are in favour and 40 percent against Kosovo’s accession — higher support than the #EU27 average (43 percent in favour, 46 percent against).
adicerimagic.bsky.social
🇽🇰 applied for 🇪🇺 membership is December 2022.
It has now been 33 months since then — and the next step, for the Council to ask the European Commission for its opinion, is still pending.

One reason: 5 members don't recognise 🇽🇰.

The latest #Eurobarometer shows how citizens view #Kosovo’s #EU bid 👇
adicerimagic.bsky.social
“…the importance of #accountability for #attacks on #KFOR and violence in #Banjska.”

🇷🇸
adicerimagic.bsky.social
Besides the fact that such an approach is, for Dodik, “absolutely unacceptable,” in his view 🇩🇪 “traditionally shows its hostility or its bad intentions towards Serbs. And today I must say that 🇩🇪 continues to do this persistently and rehabilitates it in the territory of 🇧🇦.”
adicerimagic.bsky.social
He added that the 🇩🇪 government “behaves like the old 🇺🇸 administrations, choosing with whom they want to talk and with whom they do not.”