Adil Sayeed
@adilasayeed.bsky.social
Public policy consultant by day. Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) nerd by night who believes "it's the economic vibes, stupid" that explains most presidential elections. https://economystupid.substack.com/
Is Trump lying saying “we have no inflation”? Not guilty of perjury (even if he were under oath), but he's guilty of gaslighting himself. open.substack.com/pub/economys...
Is Trump lying saying “we have no inflation”?
Not guilty of perjury. But, guilty of gaslighting his own popularity.
open.substack.com
November 10, 2025 at 7:21 PM
Is Trump lying saying “we have no inflation”? Not guilty of perjury (even if he were under oath), but he's guilty of gaslighting himself. open.substack.com/pub/economys...
Fed NOT flying blind setting interest rate without economic data during government shutdown. Fed like pilot flying Instrument Flight Rules in low visibility. Chicago Fed nowcast unemployment rate = 4.35% in October. Fed will cut interest rate this week. economystupid.substack.com/p/employment...
Employment Situation: Slightly softer in October
Chicago Fed nowcasts unemployment rate = 4.35%. Strengthens case for interest rate cut. Transmission of material in this news release is embargoed until 2:30 p.m. (ET) Monday, October 27, 2025.
economystupid.substack.com
October 27, 2025 at 6:57 PM
Fed NOT flying blind setting interest rate without economic data during government shutdown. Fed like pilot flying Instrument Flight Rules in low visibility. Chicago Fed nowcast unemployment rate = 4.35% in October. Fed will cut interest rate this week. economystupid.substack.com/p/employment...
TRUMP INFLATION UP! vibes down. 3% inflation in September same annual rate as January when Trump posted BIDEN INFLATION UP! Government shutdown helps Trump by taking inflation out of the news with no more inflation reports until shutdown ends. open.substack.com/pub/economys...
TRUMP INFLATION UP! vibes down
No sign of Trump keeping election promise to “end inflation”, so vibes still depressed.
open.substack.com
October 25, 2025 at 3:05 AM
TRUMP INFLATION UP! vibes down. 3% inflation in September same annual rate as January when Trump posted BIDEN INFLATION UP! Government shutdown helps Trump by taking inflation out of the news with no more inflation reports until shutdown ends. open.substack.com/pub/economys...
Today’s CPI report postponed until the 27th. Cleveland Fed, best source of inflation data until then, nowcasting annual inflation back up to 3%. TRUMP INFLATION UP! in keeping with Trump posting BIDEN INFLATION UP! after January CPI report. economystupid.substack.com/p/consumer-p...
Consumer Price Index Summary
With no BLS data, look to Cleveland Fed for inflation, Chicago Fed for unemployment. Transmission of material in this release is embargoed until 8:30 am (ET) Wednesday, October 15, 2025.
economystupid.substack.com
October 15, 2025 at 12:35 PM
Today’s CPI report postponed until the 27th. Cleveland Fed, best source of inflation data until then, nowcasting annual inflation back up to 3%. TRUMP INFLATION UP! in keeping with Trump posting BIDEN INFLATION UP! after January CPI report. economystupid.substack.com/p/consumer-p...
Dr. EJ Antoni's tweets insulting Comey, Harris and Krugman qualify him as MAGA hero. But, Antoni's tweet making fun of Senator McCain on the day he died will disqualify him from Senate confirmation as Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner. economystupid.substack.com/p/trumps-bls...
Trump's BLS nominee EJ Antoni doomed
Ghost of Republican Party past will bury Antoni over post making fun of McCain dying
economystupid.substack.com
September 27, 2025 at 9:12 PM
Dr. EJ Antoni's tweets insulting Comey, Harris and Krugman qualify him as MAGA hero. But, Antoni's tweet making fun of Senator McCain on the day he died will disqualify him from Senate confirmation as Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner. economystupid.substack.com/p/trumps-bls...
20 years after 1st vibecession caused by Katrina in 2005, another vibecession is under way in 2025. Trump’s “We have no inflation” may turn out as wrong as GW Bush’s “Brownie, you’re doing a heckuva job.” open.substack.com/pub/economys...
20 years since the 1st vibecession: Hurricane Katrina
Consumer vibes plunged in 2005 – like 2025. No recession in 2005. What about 2025?
open.substack.com
September 12, 2025 at 7:21 PM
20 years after 1st vibecession caused by Katrina in 2005, another vibecession is under way in 2025. Trump’s “We have no inflation” may turn out as wrong as GW Bush’s “Brownie, you’re doing a heckuva job.” open.substack.com/pub/economys...
Incoming Labor Stats Commissioner Antoni’s skill is cherry-picking numbers to make Republicans look good and Democrats look bad. BLS press releases on inflation and jobs will be Trump propaganda under Dr. Antoni.
economystupid.substack.com/p/new-bls-co...
economystupid.substack.com/p/new-bls-co...
New BLS Commish = Trump's Bing Crosby
BLS Commissioner Antoni will “Accentuate the positive. Eliminate the negative.” The Donald and I are old enough to remember that Bing recorded that hit in 1937.
economystupid.substack.com
August 13, 2025 at 2:09 AM
Incoming Labor Stats Commissioner Antoni’s skill is cherry-picking numbers to make Republicans look good and Democrats look bad. BLS press releases on inflation and jobs will be Trump propaganda under Dr. Antoni.
economystupid.substack.com/p/new-bls-co...
economystupid.substack.com/p/new-bls-co...
Dueling economic forecasts are an intramural cage match between Harvard Professor Summers v. Harvard PhD and Trump economist Miran. I expect a US recession based on a simple decision criterion — Summers is a more credible economist than Miran. economystupid.substack.com/p/will-reces...
Will recession tarnish USA’s 250th year?
Labor data says US economy still strong. Consumer vibes still low in recession zone.
economystupid.substack.com
July 7, 2025 at 6:06 PM
Dueling economic forecasts are an intramural cage match between Harvard Professor Summers v. Harvard PhD and Trump economist Miran. I expect a US recession based on a simple decision criterion — Summers is a more credible economist than Miran. economystupid.substack.com/p/will-reces...
Will Mideast war tip US into recession? Oil and gasoline price spikes played part in 1973, 1980, 1990 recessions. Will 2025 be “déjà vu all over again”? economystupid.substack.com/p/will-midea...
Will Mideast war tip US into recession?
Gasoline price spike could be last straw that breaks economic camel’s back.
economystupid.substack.com
June 17, 2025 at 7:31 PM
Will Mideast war tip US into recession? Oil and gasoline price spikes played part in 1973, 1980, 1990 recessions. Will 2025 be “déjà vu all over again”? economystupid.substack.com/p/will-midea...
Trump accused Biden of leaving a “stone cold dead” economy. (May 28) His report of US economy’s death was greatly exaggerated. Biden passed on best misery index to new president since 1953. I give Trump benefit of my doubt. He doesn’t know enough about the economy to be accused of a deliberate lie.
Will TACO save the US economy?
Consumer vibes stop sliding thanks to TACO = Trump Always Chickens Out.
open.substack.com
May 31, 2025 at 1:13 PM
Trump accused Biden of leaving a “stone cold dead” economy. (May 28) His report of US economy’s death was greatly exaggerated. Biden passed on best misery index to new president since 1953. I give Trump benefit of my doubt. He doesn’t know enough about the economy to be accused of a deliberate lie.
Who has the better track record as an economist – Kyla Scanlon (BA, Western Kentucky) or Trump’s Chair of Council of Economic Advisers Stephen Miran (PhD, Harvard)? economystupid.substack.com/p/best-econo...
Best economics degree? Harvard or Western Kentucky?
Miran (PhD, Harvard): economy “marching on ahead”. Scanlan (BA, WKU): “downturn”.
economystupid.substack.com
May 17, 2025 at 8:51 PM
Who has the better track record as an economist – Kyla Scanlon (BA, Western Kentucky) or Trump’s Chair of Council of Economic Advisers Stephen Miran (PhD, Harvard)? economystupid.substack.com/p/best-econo...
Trump's first 100 days: Calm before economic storm. US inflation and job market numbers good in April, but falling vibes signal trouble ahead. Economy teetering on edge of vibecession. Will it be just a vibecession or recession? open.substack.com/pub/economys...
1st 100 days: Calm before economic storm
Topline economic numbers good in April, but falling economic vibes signal trouble
open.substack.com
May 3, 2025 at 4:33 PM
Trump's first 100 days: Calm before economic storm. US inflation and job market numbers good in April, but falling vibes signal trouble ahead. Economy teetering on edge of vibecession. Will it be just a vibecession or recession? open.substack.com/pub/economys...
Consumers in vibecession. Recession next? Index of Consumer Sentiment down-29% since January when Trump returned to White House. Bigliest consumer vibe dive on record over 3 months. economystupid.substack.com/p/consumers-...
Consumers in vibecession. Recession next?
Bigliest consumer vibe dive on record. Even Republicans losing faith in Trumponomics.
economystupid.substack.com
April 11, 2025 at 8:10 PM
Consumers in vibecession. Recession next? Index of Consumer Sentiment down-29% since January when Trump returned to White House. Bigliest consumer vibe dive on record over 3 months. economystupid.substack.com/p/consumers-...
Et tu, vibes? Ides of March for US economy. Too soon to call recession, but we are in vibecession territory at very least. open.substack.com/pub/economys...
Et tu, vibes? Ides of March for US economy
Too soon to call recession, but at very least vibecession looms.
open.substack.com
March 14, 2025 at 4:02 PM
Et tu, vibes? Ides of March for US economy. Too soon to call recession, but we are in vibecession territory at very least. open.substack.com/pub/economys...
RFK Jr.: "It's not unusual ... measles every year".
It is unusual to say “go wild on health”.
It is unusual to put a crank in charge.
But, when I see RFK dissing measles risk,
It's not unusual to see me cry.
I hope no more die. open.substack.com/pub/economys...
It is unusual to say “go wild on health”.
It is unusual to put a crank in charge.
But, when I see RFK dissing measles risk,
It's not unusual to see me cry.
I hope no more die. open.substack.com/pub/economys...
RFK Jr.: "It's not unusual ... measles every year"
Wrong, Mr. Health Secretary. After 2 months, 2025 US cases > half in all of 2024.
open.substack.com
March 1, 2025 at 12:04 AM
RFK Jr.: "It's not unusual ... measles every year".
It is unusual to say “go wild on health”.
It is unusual to put a crank in charge.
But, when I see RFK dissing measles risk,
It's not unusual to see me cry.
I hope no more die. open.substack.com/pub/economys...
It is unusual to say “go wild on health”.
It is unusual to put a crank in charge.
But, when I see RFK dissing measles risk,
It's not unusual to see me cry.
I hope no more die. open.substack.com/pub/economys...
Conference Board reports Expectations Index “below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession”. Signal has not been reliable in recent years. Too soon to tell if recession on way. But, Trump’s big mouth could stall US economy by sapping confidence economystupid.substack.com/p/falling-ec...
Falling economic vibes signaling recession?
Conference Board and UMichigan agree on vibe dive. But, too soon to call recession.
economystupid.substack.com
February 26, 2025 at 2:57 AM
Conference Board reports Expectations Index “below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession”. Signal has not been reliable in recent years. Too soon to tell if recession on way. But, Trump’s big mouth could stall US economy by sapping confidence economystupid.substack.com/p/falling-ec...
Trump’s honeymoon gone bad like Liz Taylor marriage. Index of Consumer Sentiment down 9% wiping out post-election economic vibes honeymoon. open.substack.com/pub/economys...
Trump’s honeymoon gone bad like Liz Taylor marriage
Post-election vibes honeymoon over. -9% consumer sentiment drop in February.
open.substack.com
February 21, 2025 at 4:25 PM
Trump’s honeymoon gone bad like Liz Taylor marriage. Index of Consumer Sentiment down 9% wiping out post-election economic vibes honeymoon. open.substack.com/pub/economys...
Lucky Trump inherits best misery index for new president since Ike 1953. But, economic vibes still low. Republicans will win in 2028 only if Trump keeps US economy humming. What are chances demented Trump will be a good economic manager? economystupid.substack.com/p/lucky-trum...
Lucky Trump? Best economy for new president in 70 years
Trump inherits best misery index for new POTUS since Ike. But, economic vibes still low.
economystupid.substack.com
February 17, 2025 at 1:49 PM
Lucky Trump inherits best misery index for new president since Ike 1953. But, economic vibes still low. Republicans will win in 2028 only if Trump keeps US economy humming. What are chances demented Trump will be a good economic manager? economystupid.substack.com/p/lucky-trum...
Jeff Bezos after the election: “he (Trump) is calmer than he was the first time” Who agrees with Bezos?
economystupid.substack.com/p/bezos-calm...
economystupid.substack.com/p/bezos-calm...
Bezos’ “calmer” Trump fails air crash test
Bezos’ false hope for 2nd term: “he (Trump) is calmer than he was the first time”
economystupid.substack.com
February 4, 2025 at 7:41 PM
Jeff Bezos after the election: “he (Trump) is calmer than he was the first time” Who agrees with Bezos?
economystupid.substack.com/p/bezos-calm...
economystupid.substack.com/p/bezos-calm...
Federal Reserve a bit player until Carter picked Volcker -- hinge moment in US economic history. Inflation ended Carter’s presidency, yet he appointed the man who ended high inflation. Brad DeLong is wrong that Volcker got job due to White House bumbling. economystupid.substack.com/p/fed-a-bit-...
Fed a bit player until Carter picked Volcker
Hinge moment in US economic history would not have occurred without Jimmy Carter.
economystupid.substack.com
January 9, 2025 at 7:34 PM
Federal Reserve a bit player until Carter picked Volcker -- hinge moment in US economic history. Inflation ended Carter’s presidency, yet he appointed the man who ended high inflation. Brad DeLong is wrong that Volcker got job due to White House bumbling. economystupid.substack.com/p/fed-a-bit-...