Adil Sayeed
@adilasayeed.bsky.social
Public policy consultant by day. Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) nerd by night who believes "it's the economic vibes, stupid" that explains most presidential elections. https://economystupid.substack.com/
Future Fed Chair Hassett seems not to have heard of Chicago Fed nowcasting October U rate = 4.36%. Chicago Fed may revise October nowcast when Bureau of Labor Stats (BLS) releases September report. Chicago nowcast = best source if no BLS U rate for October economystupid.substack.com/p/unemployme...
Unemployment Situation: Chicago Fed says 4.36%
Final nowcast of October rate confirms Fed case for rate cut: “softer labor market”. Transmission of material in this news release is embargoed until 10:00 am (ET) Nov. 6, 2025
economystupid.substack.com
November 13, 2025 at 3:33 PM
Future Fed Chair Hassett seems not to have heard of Chicago Fed nowcasting October U rate = 4.36%. Chicago Fed may revise October nowcast when Bureau of Labor Stats (BLS) releases September report. Chicago nowcast = best source if no BLS U rate for October economystupid.substack.com/p/unemployme...
Super discussion about youth voter gender gap. But, I still doubt that gender cost Harris. Given inflation angst, she did well to come close. Would voters opposed to woman prez vote for any Democrat? economystupid.substack.com/p/did-harris-
economystupid.substack.com
November 13, 2025 at 1:18 PM
Super discussion about youth voter gender gap. But, I still doubt that gender cost Harris. Given inflation angst, she did well to come close. Would voters opposed to woman prez vote for any Democrat? economystupid.substack.com/p/did-harris-
Trump will also be hurt by government reopening and new reports of CPI inflation = 3% contrary to his "no inflation" claims. economystupid.substack.com/p/is-trump-l...
Is Trump lying saying “we have no inflation”?
Not guilty of perjury. But, guilty of gaslighting his own popularity.
economystupid.substack.com
November 11, 2025 at 5:42 PM
Trump will also be hurt by government reopening and new reports of CPI inflation = 3% contrary to his "no inflation" claims. economystupid.substack.com/p/is-trump-l...
Is Trump lying saying “we have no inflation”? Not guilty of perjury (even if he were under oath), but he's guilty of gaslighting himself. open.substack.com/pub/economys...
Is Trump lying saying “we have no inflation”?
Not guilty of perjury. But, guilty of gaslighting his own popularity.
open.substack.com
November 10, 2025 at 7:24 PM
Is Trump lying saying “we have no inflation”? Not guilty of perjury (even if he were under oath), but he's guilty of gaslighting himself. open.substack.com/pub/economys...
Biden handed over to Trump in January lowest misery index inherited by incoming president since Eisenhower succeeded Truman in 1953. A bit on the "fun with figures" side, but still worth noting. Liked the "merging into fast growth highway" analogy. economystupid.substack.com/p/lucky-trum...
Lucky Trump? Best economy for new president in 70 years
Biden hands Trump best misery index for new POTUS since 1953. But, vibes still low.
economystupid.substack.com
November 8, 2025 at 5:19 PM
Biden handed over to Trump in January lowest misery index inherited by incoming president since Eisenhower succeeded Truman in 1953. A bit on the "fun with figures" side, but still worth noting. Liked the "merging into fast growth highway" analogy. economystupid.substack.com/p/lucky-trum...
Cleveland Fed President Hammack may be influenced by Cleveland Fed nowcast showing core PCE inflation for November = 2.9% = no change since last official BEA release for August. economystupid.substack.com/p/consumer-p...
Consumer Price Index Summary
With no BLS data, look to Cleveland Fed for inflation, Chicago Fed for unemployment. Transmission of material in this release is embargoed until 8:30 am (ET) Wednesday, October 15, 2025.
economystupid.substack.com
November 7, 2025 at 5:04 PM
Cleveland Fed President Hammack may be influenced by Cleveland Fed nowcast showing core PCE inflation for November = 2.9% = no change since last official BEA release for August. economystupid.substack.com/p/consumer-p...
Agree that "Trump’s victory in 2024 ... was driven by high inflation". Much more important than any other factor. Trump's campaign promise “on day one, we will end inflation” now haunting Republicans. economystupid.substack.com/p/is-carvill...
Is Carville’s “economy, stupid” maxim dead?
Misery index says yes. But, add 1 word. “Economic vibes, stupid” decide the presidency.
economystupid.substack.com
November 5, 2025 at 7:01 PM
Agree that "Trump’s victory in 2024 ... was driven by high inflation". Much more important than any other factor. Trump's campaign promise “on day one, we will end inflation” now haunting Republicans. economystupid.substack.com/p/is-carvill...
Results in NJ and Virginia positive sign, I hope. As I see it, 1/3 of Americans follow Trump blindly. But, that's not enough for Trump or Vance to win 2028 election, if it's free and fair.
November 5, 2025 at 6:57 PM
Results in NJ and Virginia positive sign, I hope. As I see it, 1/3 of Americans follow Trump blindly. But, that's not enough for Trump or Vance to win 2028 election, if it's free and fair.
Agree with Adeoye: "people ... voted for Trump, because Trump ... promised ... to deliver results". E.g., “on day one, we will end inflation”. For now, Dems should focus on Trump not delivering on inflation. economystupid.substack.com/p/trump-infl...
TRUMP INFLATION UP! vibes down
No sign of Trump keeping election promise to “end inflation”, so vibes still depressed.
economystupid.substack.com
November 3, 2025 at 3:19 PM
Agree with Adeoye: "people ... voted for Trump, because Trump ... promised ... to deliver results". E.g., “on day one, we will end inflation”. For now, Dems should focus on Trump not delivering on inflation. economystupid.substack.com/p/trump-infl...
It is time to admit that Trump won the 2024 election because the high inflation of 2021 and 2022 left American voters with a bad case of bad economic vibes and no confidence in Democratic economic management. Just bad luck to be in office during inflation. economystupid.substack.com/p/is-carvill...
Is Carville’s “economy, stupid” maxim dead?
Misery index says yes. But, add 1 word. “Economic vibes, stupid” decide the presidency.
economystupid.substack.com
November 1, 2025 at 9:16 PM
It is time to admit that Trump won the 2024 election because the high inflation of 2021 and 2022 left American voters with a bad case of bad economic vibes and no confidence in Democratic economic management. Just bad luck to be in office during inflation. economystupid.substack.com/p/is-carvill...
Fed like a pilot flying under Instrument Flight Rules in low visibility. Without official data, Fed can look at alternative data sources such as nowcasts of inflation, unemployment. But nowcast reliability will fade over time if government shutdown lasts. economystupid.substack.com/p/employment...
Employment Situation: Slightly softer in October
Chicago Fed nowcasts unemployment rate = 4.35%. Strengthens case for interest rate cut. Transmission of material in this news release is embargoed until 2:30 p.m. (ET) Monday, October 27, 2025.
economystupid.substack.com
October 29, 2025 at 3:11 AM
Fed like a pilot flying under Instrument Flight Rules in low visibility. Without official data, Fed can look at alternative data sources such as nowcasts of inflation, unemployment. But nowcast reliability will fade over time if government shutdown lasts. economystupid.substack.com/p/employment...
Fed like a pilot flying under Instrument Flight Rules in low visibility. Without official data, Fed can look at alternative data sources such as nowcasts of inflation, unemployment. But nowcast reliability will fade over time if government shutdown lasts. economystupid.substack.com/p/employment...
Employment Situation: Slightly softer in October
Chicago Fed nowcasts unemployment rate = 4.35%. Strengthens case for interest rate cut. Transmission of material in this news release is embargoed until 2:30 p.m. (ET) Monday, October 27, 2025.
economystupid.substack.com
October 29, 2025 at 3:10 AM
Fed like a pilot flying under Instrument Flight Rules in low visibility. Without official data, Fed can look at alternative data sources such as nowcasts of inflation, unemployment. But nowcast reliability will fade over time if government shutdown lasts. economystupid.substack.com/p/employment...
Kyla Scanlon more pessimistic than I am. But, I would listen to Scanlon before any of President Trump's economists. economystupid.substack.com/p/best-econo...
Best economics degree? Harvard PhD or Western Kentucky BSc?
Miran (PhD, Harvard): economy “marching on ahead”. Scanlan (BSc, WKU): “downturn”.
economystupid.substack.com
October 27, 2025 at 3:51 AM
Kyla Scanlon more pessimistic than I am. But, I would listen to Scanlon before any of President Trump's economists. economystupid.substack.com/p/best-econo...
In 2024 Posobiec influenced former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy to endorse the conspiracy theory that the NFL fixed the Super Bowl to please Taylor Swift and the Democrats. Ramaswamy now leading polls to be next Governor of Ohio. Consider your vote carefully, Ohio. x.com/VivekGRamasw...
Vivek Ramaswamy on X: "@JackPosobiec I wonder who’s going to win the Super Bowl next month. And I wonder if there’s a major presidential endorsement coming from an artificially culturally propped-up couple this fall. Just some wild speculation over here, let’s see how it ages over the next 8 months." / X
@JackPosobiec I wonder who’s going to win the Super Bowl next month. And I wonder if there’s a major presidential endorsement coming from an artificially culturally propped-up couple this fall. Just some wild speculation over here, let’s see how it ages over the next 8 months.
x.com
October 23, 2025 at 12:16 PM
In 2024 Posobiec influenced former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy to endorse the conspiracy theory that the NFL fixed the Super Bowl to please Taylor Swift and the Democrats. Ramaswamy now leading polls to be next Governor of Ohio. Consider your vote carefully, Ohio. x.com/VivekGRamasw...
“Trump has fired officials producing data” Trump is modern King Tigranes. See Plutarch: “Since the first messenger … had his head cut off, no one would tell him anything. He sat in ignorance while fires were blazing, giving ear only to those who flattered” economystupid.substack.com/p/trumps-bs-...
October 22, 2025 at 7:37 PM
“Trump has fired officials producing data” Trump is modern King Tigranes. See Plutarch: “Since the first messenger … had his head cut off, no one would tell him anything. He sat in ignorance while fires were blazing, giving ear only to those who flattered” economystupid.substack.com/p/trumps-bs-...
Jong-Fast asks: “How sexist is the electorate?” No evidence of gender bias in past presidential election results. Voters were in a sour economic mood in 2024 and 2016 and blamed the party holding the White House. Vibes beat Harris and Clinton, not Trump.
economystupid.substack.com/p/did-harris...
economystupid.substack.com/p/did-harris...
Did Harris lose because of gender + race?
No. Low economic vibes would have defeated any Democratic nominee.
economystupid.substack.com
October 22, 2025 at 2:49 PM
Jong-Fast asks: “How sexist is the electorate?” No evidence of gender bias in past presidential election results. Voters were in a sour economic mood in 2024 and 2016 and blamed the party holding the White House. Vibes beat Harris and Clinton, not Trump.
economystupid.substack.com/p/did-harris...
economystupid.substack.com/p/did-harris...
Annualized rate will rise from 2.3% (January to August) to 2.6% when Bureau of Labor Statistics releases September CPI this Friday the 24th. Annual inflation over 12 months will be back at 3%. economystupid.substack.com/p/consumer-p...
Consumer Price Index Summary
With no BLS data, look to Cleveland Fed for inflation, Chicago Fed for unemployment. Transmission of material in this release is embargoed until 8:30 am (ET) Wednesday, October 15, 2025.
economystupid.substack.com
October 20, 2025 at 6:40 PM
Annualized rate will rise from 2.3% (January to August) to 2.6% when Bureau of Labor Statistics releases September CPI this Friday the 24th. Annual inflation over 12 months will be back at 3%. economystupid.substack.com/p/consumer-p...
Misery index September 2025 = 7.3 = 3% inflation + 4.3% unemployment based on Fed nowcasts vs. 7.0 that Trump inherited in January = 3% inflation + 4% U. Biden handed to Trump lowest misery index for incoming president since 1953. economystupid.substack.com/p/lucky-trum...
Lucky Trump? Best economy for new president in 70 years
Biden hands Trump best misery index for new POTUS since 1953. But, vibes still low.
economystupid.substack.com
October 19, 2025 at 7:41 PM
Misery index September 2025 = 7.3 = 3% inflation + 4.3% unemployment based on Fed nowcasts vs. 7.0 that Trump inherited in January = 3% inflation + 4% U. Biden handed to Trump lowest misery index for incoming president since 1953. economystupid.substack.com/p/lucky-trum...
Today’s CPI report postponed until the 27th. Cleveland Fed, best source of inflation data until then, nowcasting annual inflation back up to 3%. TRUMP INFLATION UP! in keeping with Trump posting BIDEN INFLATION UP! after January CPI report. economystupid.substack.com/p/consumer-p...
Consumer Price Index Summary
With no BLS data, look to Cleveland Fed for inflation, Chicago Fed for unemployment. Transmission of material in this release is embargoed until 8:30 am (ET) Wednesday, October 15, 2025.
economystupid.substack.com
October 15, 2025 at 12:34 PM
Today’s CPI report postponed until the 27th. Cleveland Fed, best source of inflation data until then, nowcasting annual inflation back up to 3%. TRUMP INFLATION UP! in keeping with Trump posting BIDEN INFLATION UP! after January CPI report. economystupid.substack.com/p/consumer-p...
Would be sad situation if BLS and rest of government still out of action by mid-November release of October CPI. But, that sad situation seems very possible today.
October 1, 2025 at 2:53 PM
Would be sad situation if BLS and rest of government still out of action by mid-November release of October CPI. But, that sad situation seems very possible today.