Andy Langenkamp
@andylangenkamp.bsky.social
Senior analyst at ECR Research & ICC Consultants. Geopolitics/economy/financial markets. Words in FT, Guardian, Politico, The Hill, The Messenger, NRC, FD, Trouw, Volkskrant, Tijd, Trouw, Knack et al
This is Europe: rich, complacent, disarmed, dependent. The tension between political rhetoric (“we must rearm”), and material reality (“we have no barracks”) is what most makes it feel like 1938 claireberlinski.substack.com/p/the-view-f...
The View from France
Watching the 10 o'clock news in Paris as the US betrays its allies.
claireberlinski.substack.com
December 8, 2025 at 4:34 PM
This is Europe: rich, complacent, disarmed, dependent. The tension between political rhetoric (“we must rearm”), and material reality (“we have no barracks”) is what most makes it feel like 1938 claireberlinski.substack.com/p/the-view-f...
Putin is spinning a new narrative for global consumption: The Americans are reasonable, the Europeans are warmongering fanatics, and Ukraine is a detail claireberlinski.substack.com/p/the-view-f...
The View from France
Watching the 10 o'clock news in Paris as the US betrays its allies.
claireberlinski.substack.com
December 8, 2025 at 4:04 PM
Putin is spinning a new narrative for global consumption: The Americans are reasonable, the Europeans are warmongering fanatics, and Ukraine is a detail claireberlinski.substack.com/p/the-view-f...
Taiwan's seen as the hottest geopolitical fuse in town. What if the real fireworks are brewing elsewhere—India's slyly and quietly cracking open sanction walls? Or the scramble for critical commodities that's already rewriting the rules of the energy race? ecrresearch.com/global-polit...
Global Politics: Overexposed, Underexposed, Spot-on | ECR Research
ecrresearch.com
December 8, 2025 at 3:39 PM
Taiwan's seen as the hottest geopolitical fuse in town. What if the real fireworks are brewing elsewhere—India's slyly and quietly cracking open sanction walls? Or the scramble for critical commodities that's already rewriting the rules of the energy race? ecrresearch.com/global-polit...
European politicians find themselves dependent on security guarantees from an American president who supports the political parties that pose the greatest threat to their own political survival www.economist.com/by-invitatio...
It’s time Europe got to grips with the MAGA challenge, writes Mark Leonard
How Donald Trump can be used as a weapon against his ideological allies on the old continent
www.economist.com
December 8, 2025 at 3:03 PM
European politicians find themselves dependent on security guarantees from an American president who supports the political parties that pose the greatest threat to their own political survival www.economist.com/by-invitatio...
If American post-WWII history is any guide to what we can expect, Congress will not thwart Trump's war plans. Congress will not thwart Trump's war plans www.economist.com/united-train...
www.economist.com
December 8, 2025 at 3:02 PM
If American post-WWII history is any guide to what we can expect, Congress will not thwart Trump's war plans. Congress will not thwart Trump's war plans www.economist.com/united-train...
5 ways to tackle debt:
Growth; every politician’s prayer
Austerity; electoral suicide
Default; unthinkable for reserve-currency issuer
Inflation shock; destroys central bank credibility
Financial repression & moderate inflation; absence of alternatives 7thin.gs/p/financial-...
Growth; every politician’s prayer
Austerity; electoral suicide
Default; unthinkable for reserve-currency issuer
Inflation shock; destroys central bank credibility
Financial repression & moderate inflation; absence of alternatives 7thin.gs/p/financial-...
We Are All China Now
The West mocked Beijing’s financial repression for decades. Now it’s the model.
7thin.gs
December 5, 2025 at 12:37 AM
5 ways to tackle debt:
Growth; every politician’s prayer
Austerity; electoral suicide
Default; unthinkable for reserve-currency issuer
Inflation shock; destroys central bank credibility
Financial repression & moderate inflation; absence of alternatives 7thin.gs/p/financial-...
Growth; every politician’s prayer
Austerity; electoral suicide
Default; unthinkable for reserve-currency issuer
Inflation shock; destroys central bank credibility
Financial repression & moderate inflation; absence of alternatives 7thin.gs/p/financial-...
Turmp appeals to his election as continuing proof of public support for whatever he decides to do & as sufficient basis to relieve him of other obligations of accountability. Stephen Miller claims the whole will of democracy is imbued into the president www.execfunctions.org/p/the-boat-s...
The Boat Strike Presidency
Trump’s model of the presidency both explains his boat strike troubles and how he will deal with them.
www.execfunctions.org
December 5, 2025 at 12:17 AM
Turmp appeals to his election as continuing proof of public support for whatever he decides to do & as sufficient basis to relieve him of other obligations of accountability. Stephen Miller claims the whole will of democracy is imbued into the president www.execfunctions.org/p/the-boat-s...
Today, having a system generating more growth than available alternatives doesn't adequately address the challenges throwing the system into crisis. To understand the liberalism crisis is to acknowledge the problems economic growth alone doesn't resolve www.nytimes.com/2025/12/02/o...
Opinion | The Liberal Order Can’t Heal Itself
www.nytimes.com
December 4, 2025 at 12:28 AM
Today, having a system generating more growth than available alternatives doesn't adequately address the challenges throwing the system into crisis. To understand the liberalism crisis is to acknowledge the problems economic growth alone doesn't resolve www.nytimes.com/2025/12/02/o...
Politicians must act fast if they are to spread the costs of ageing over many cohorts of people, rather than imposing abrupt pension cuts or tax rises later. Discipline today buys room to age gracefully tomorrow www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
European pensions are in dire need of reform
Some countries are much better prepared for ageing than others
www.economist.com
December 4, 2025 at 12:07 AM
Politicians must act fast if they are to spread the costs of ageing over many cohorts of people, rather than imposing abrupt pension cuts or tax rises later. Discipline today buys room to age gracefully tomorrow www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
Europe’s fastest-ageing countries also already offer some of the most generous pensions and lowest retirement ages. The average French retiree now spends 23 years drawing a pension, longer than in any other OECD country www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
European pensions are in dire need of reform
Some countries are much better prepared for ageing than others
www.economist.com
December 4, 2025 at 12:06 AM
Europe’s fastest-ageing countries also already offer some of the most generous pensions and lowest retirement ages. The average French retiree now spends 23 years drawing a pension, longer than in any other OECD country www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
The authoritarian strain on the left is not as deeply entrenched as it is on the right. And yet there is one way that I think things on the Democratic side are worse. Liberal and progressive institutions don’t seem to realize they have a problem at all www.infinitescroll.us/p/democrats-...
Democrats have their own extremist problem
Platforming terrorists and promoting authoritarianism should have no place in a liberal Democratic party
www.infinitescroll.us
December 3, 2025 at 11:49 PM
The authoritarian strain on the left is not as deeply entrenched as it is on the right. And yet there is one way that I think things on the Democratic side are worse. Liberal and progressive institutions don’t seem to realize they have a problem at all www.infinitescroll.us/p/democrats-...
At the current rate of improvement, LLMs would match superforecaster performance by late 2026. Even if progress slows or plateaus, the current gap is narrow enough that LLMs could close it soon forecastingresearch.substack.com/p/ai-llm-for...
How well can large language models predict the future?
We’ve just released an updated version of ForecastBench, our LLM forecasting benchmark. Here’s what the new results reveal about the accuracy of state-of-the-art models.
forecastingresearch.substack.com
December 1, 2025 at 2:45 PM
At the current rate of improvement, LLMs would match superforecaster performance by late 2026. Even if progress slows or plateaus, the current gap is narrow enough that LLMs could close it soon forecastingresearch.substack.com/p/ai-llm-for...
Can the superiority of the Israeli military be turned into strategic security? Or does the Israeli approach — almost daily strikes against Hezbollah operatives and often civilians who happen to be in the line of fire — make peace impossible? www.nytimes.com/2025/11/26/w...
‘Imperial Israel’ in the New Middle East
www.nytimes.com
December 1, 2025 at 10:29 AM
Can the superiority of the Israeli military be turned into strategic security? Or does the Israeli approach — almost daily strikes against Hezbollah operatives and often civilians who happen to be in the line of fire — make peace impossible? www.nytimes.com/2025/11/26/w...
Many today believe that a great-power war is inconceivable—failing to recognize that this is not a reflection of what is possible in the world but of the limits of what their minds can conceive www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
The End of the Longest Peace?
One of history’s greatest achievements is under threat.
www.foreignaffairs.com
November 28, 2025 at 9:36 AM
Many today believe that a great-power war is inconceivable—failing to recognize that this is not a reflection of what is possible in the world but of the limits of what their minds can conceive www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
In 2009 Russia & China were characterized as strategic partners. By the time Trump became president in 2017, the reality of rapidly rising China & a resentful, revanchist Russia led to the recognition that we've entered a new era of great-power competition www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
The End of the Longest Peace?
One of history’s greatest achievements is under threat.
www.foreignaffairs.com
November 28, 2025 at 9:32 AM
In 2009 Russia & China were characterized as strategic partners. By the time Trump became president in 2017, the reality of rapidly rising China & a resentful, revanchist Russia led to the recognition that we've entered a new era of great-power competition www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
More than 100 countries now have the economic and technical base to build nuclear weapons. Their choice to rely on the security guarantees of others is geostrategically and historically unnatural www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
The End of the Longest Peace?
One of history’s greatest achievements is under threat.
www.foreignaffairs.com
November 28, 2025 at 9:27 AM
More than 100 countries now have the economic and technical base to build nuclear weapons. Their choice to rely on the security guarantees of others is geostrategically and historically unnatural www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
It's been 80yrs since the last great power war. This has enabled the global population to triple, life expectancy to double & global GDP to grow 15x. If post–WWII statesmen had settled for history as usual, we could have seen the war to end all wars www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
The End of the Longest Peace?
One of history’s greatest achievements is under threat.
www.foreignaffairs.com
November 28, 2025 at 9:25 AM
It's been 80yrs since the last great power war. This has enabled the global population to triple, life expectancy to double & global GDP to grow 15x. If post–WWII statesmen had settled for history as usual, we could have seen the war to end all wars www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
It’s jarring to see Trump give Mamdani a warmer embrace than the Democratic Party has. But it’s also a testament to the power of economic populism, and a concrete example of how much Mamdani can teach his party www.readtangle.com/trump-and-ma...
The Trump–Mamdani White House meeting.
Plus, the charities Tangle staff members support.
www.readtangle.com
November 25, 2025 at 8:54 AM
It’s jarring to see Trump give Mamdani a warmer embrace than the Democratic Party has. But it’s also a testament to the power of economic populism, and a concrete example of how much Mamdani can teach his party www.readtangle.com/trump-and-ma...
Trump always & ever loves winners, whether a Saudi crown prince, a billionaire businessman, or, apparently, a democratic-socialist mayor fresh off an underdog win. He also admires those who dress well and carry themselves with confidence www.readtangle.com/trump-and-ma...
The Trump–Mamdani White House meeting.
Plus, the charities Tangle staff members support.
www.readtangle.com
November 24, 2025 at 8:59 PM
Trump always & ever loves winners, whether a Saudi crown prince, a billionaire businessman, or, apparently, a democratic-socialist mayor fresh off an underdog win. He also admires those who dress well and carry themselves with confidence www.readtangle.com/trump-and-ma...
An important but unstated goal of crypto advocates is to integrate crypto into traditional finance so thoroughly that it becomes too-big-to-fail and backed by an implicit government support www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
Leave the Gold in the Ground
Yap money stones, consultation fees, Morgan Stanley vendors, crypto-to-GSE contagion and the Epstein files.
www.bloomberg.com
November 24, 2025 at 8:45 PM
An important but unstated goal of crypto advocates is to integrate crypto into traditional finance so thoroughly that it becomes too-big-to-fail and backed by an implicit government support www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
Very few people genuinely believe in multilateralism & multilateral institutions as good things in themselves. (Most of them are found in think-tanks or editorial board meetings at the @FT , not in presidential or prime ministerial offices.) www.ft.com/content/2f65...
The G20 has a mission but not a role
An institution that relied on principled co-operation was always going to stumble
www.ft.com
November 24, 2025 at 7:40 PM
Very few people genuinely believe in multilateralism & multilateral institutions as good things in themselves. (Most of them are found in think-tanks or editorial board meetings at the @FT , not in presidential or prime ministerial offices.) www.ft.com/content/2f65...
Imagine defending a suitor who’s a serial arsonist because the other guy has a jaywalking citation; both bachelors are lawbreakers, after all. That’s the perverse moral arithmetic of more than a few Trump apologists www.nytimes.com/2025/11/24/o...
Opinion | The Outrageous False Equivalences That Prop Up President Trump
www.nytimes.com
November 24, 2025 at 1:35 PM
Imagine defending a suitor who’s a serial arsonist because the other guy has a jaywalking citation; both bachelors are lawbreakers, after all. That’s the perverse moral arithmetic of more than a few Trump apologists www.nytimes.com/2025/11/24/o...
Given this map, it's hardly surprising that unrest is growing in Latin America brilliantmaps.beehiiv.com/p/11-midweek...
November 19, 2025 at 2:57 PM
Given this map, it's hardly surprising that unrest is growing in Latin America brilliantmaps.beehiiv.com/p/11-midweek...
Tariff shocks through history have actually been aggregate demand shocks rather than price ones. They’ve led to higher unemployment and, ironically given current discussions in the US, lower inflation www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
How Affordability Disrupted Trump’s Economic Case for Tariffs
American voters feeling the sting of higher prices forced Trump to backpedal on tariffs
www.bloomberg.com
November 18, 2025 at 12:32 PM
Tariff shocks through history have actually been aggregate demand shocks rather than price ones. They’ve led to higher unemployment and, ironically given current discussions in the US, lower inflation www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
Wishful thinking or is Trump really losing his iron grip on the Republican party? heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/november-1...
November 17, 2025 (Monday)
President Donald J.
heathercoxrichardson.substack.com
November 18, 2025 at 9:31 AM
Wishful thinking or is Trump really losing his iron grip on the Republican party? heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/november-1...