Robin Brooks
@robin-j-brooks.bsky.social
Senior Fellow at @brookings.edu. Previously Chief Economist at IIF and Chief FX Strategist at Goldman Sachs.
A group of young parliamentarians in Germany's CDU is holding up pension reform that locks future generations into onerous payments. This is true leadership for the rest of the EU. Europe's economy can heal itself, but not if it's weighed down by an oversized welfare state. We need more of this...
November 25, 2025 at 11:20 AM
A group of young parliamentarians in Germany's CDU is holding up pension reform that locks future generations into onerous payments. This is true leadership for the rest of the EU. Europe's economy can heal itself, but not if it's weighed down by an oversized welfare state. We need more of this...
I got many requests to post an update of these charts that compare 10-year gov't bond yields (blue) with 10y20y forward yields (red). We're in a slow-moving global debt crisis with lots of idiosyncratic trouble spots: Japan, the UK, France, Italy and Spain.
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/bond-marke...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/bond-marke...
November 25, 2025 at 10:57 AM
I got many requests to post an update of these charts that compare 10-year gov't bond yields (blue) with 10y20y forward yields (red). We're in a slow-moving global debt crisis with lots of idiosyncratic trouble spots: Japan, the UK, France, Italy and Spain.
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/bond-marke...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/bond-marke...
Japan's 10-year gov't bond yield is 1.8% (blue), which isn't high. But - more than any other country - Japan's yield curve is pulled down by very low front-end rates. Take that out by looking at 10y20y forward, which is 4.5% (red). That's crisis territory...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-end-of...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-end-of...
November 25, 2025 at 6:01 AM
Japan's 10-year gov't bond yield is 1.8% (blue), which isn't high. But - more than any other country - Japan's yield curve is pulled down by very low front-end rates. Take that out by looking at 10y20y forward, which is 4.5% (red). That's crisis territory...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-end-of...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-end-of...
One pushback to the debasement trade: 10-year yield is down in 2025 (blue), so US gov't debt is fine. But falling 10-year is pulled down by falling 2-year on dovish Fed expectations. Put that aside and look at 10y10y forward yield (red). That's super high...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/pushback-o...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/pushback-o...
November 25, 2025 at 5:47 AM
One pushback to the debasement trade: 10-year yield is down in 2025 (blue), so US gov't debt is fine. But falling 10-year is pulled down by falling 2-year on dovish Fed expectations. Put that aside and look at 10y10y forward yield (red). That's super high...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/pushback-o...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/pushback-o...
You can still have common foreign and defense policy without the Euro. You can even have a single market and banking union. You don’t need the Euro for any of these things. The Euro at this point is mainly needed to maintain the illusion that some countries aren’t bankrupt…
November 24, 2025 at 10:19 AM
You can still have common foreign and defense policy without the Euro. You can even have a single market and banking union. You don’t need the Euro for any of these things. The Euro at this point is mainly needed to maintain the illusion that some countries aren’t bankrupt…
Bankruptcy isn’t a bad thing. If countries refuse to get their fiscal house in order, it’s the most transparent thing to do. It’s basically a way to bail in households who were too selfish and greedy to pay a little bit more in taxes to keep the Euro. That kind of behavior shouldn’t be rewarded…
November 24, 2025 at 10:17 AM
Bankruptcy isn’t a bad thing. If countries refuse to get their fiscal house in order, it’s the most transparent thing to do. It’s basically a way to bail in households who were too selfish and greedy to pay a little bit more in taxes to keep the Euro. That kind of behavior shouldn’t be rewarded…
These are total commitments. Italy and Spain aren’t even making commitments…
November 24, 2025 at 9:49 AM
These are total commitments. Italy and Spain aren’t even making commitments…
You don’t need the Euro for things like common foreign policy or common defense policy. You don’t even need it for the single market or banking union. A return to national currencies will bring much-needed transparency on who is broke and who isn’t. No more hidden transfers from North to South…
November 24, 2025 at 9:49 AM
You don’t need the Euro for things like common foreign policy or common defense policy. You don’t even need it for the single market or banking union. A return to national currencies will bring much-needed transparency on who is broke and who isn’t. No more hidden transfers from North to South…
The Japanese Yen (black) in real effective terms is as weak as Turkish Lira (blue). That should be all the warning that's needed for Japan's policy leaders that something is very badly wrong. But are they listening? No. They're doing more debt stimulus...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/japanese-d...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/japanese-d...
November 24, 2025 at 9:10 AM
The Japanese Yen (black) in real effective terms is as weak as Turkish Lira (blue). That should be all the warning that's needed for Japan's policy leaders that something is very badly wrong. But are they listening? No. They're doing more debt stimulus...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/japanese-d...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/japanese-d...
My post that Germany must exit the Euro has been greeted with the predictable accusation that I'm anti-European. No. The EU is a bystander on Ukraine when it should lead. Much of the blame goes to Italy and Spain for their endless debt shenanigans. Enough...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-german...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-german...
November 24, 2025 at 9:01 AM
My post that Germany must exit the Euro has been greeted with the predictable accusation that I'm anti-European. No. The EU is a bystander on Ukraine when it should lead. Much of the blame goes to Italy and Spain for their endless debt shenanigans. Enough...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-german...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-german...
The "debasement trade" since Jackson Hole on Aug. 22 is panicked buying of any asset that might be a safe haven from debt debasement. Bitcoin was billed as the ultimate fiat debasement hedge, but it's down 25% since Jackson Hole. Bitcoin is no safe haven...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-bitcoi...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-bitcoi...
November 24, 2025 at 8:50 AM
The "debasement trade" since Jackson Hole on Aug. 22 is panicked buying of any asset that might be a safe haven from debt debasement. Bitcoin was billed as the ultimate fiat debasement hedge, but it's down 25% since Jackson Hole. Bitcoin is no safe haven...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-bitcoi...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-bitcoi...
Sweden and the Nordics have so much to be proud of and I am in awe. I am the opposite regarding Italy and Spain. These two places demand solidarity at every turn, but when a horrific invasion happens with millions of deaths, they show no solidarity. Neither Spain nor Italy deserve solidarity...
November 24, 2025 at 8:37 AM
Sweden and the Nordics have so much to be proud of and I am in awe. I am the opposite regarding Italy and Spain. These two places demand solidarity at every turn, but when a horrific invasion happens with millions of deaths, they show no solidarity. Neither Spain nor Italy deserve solidarity...
Reposted by Robin Brooks
As a swede, it makes me proud. However, as @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social points out on X:
‘Countries like Sweden and the other Nordics are bearing a disproportionate burden in supporting Ukraine, while Italy and Spain contribute almost nothing. It’s way beyond time to call this out.‘
‘Countries like Sweden and the other Nordics are bearing a disproportionate burden in supporting Ukraine, while Italy and Spain contribute almost nothing. It’s way beyond time to call this out.‘
Nordic countries paying most for Ukraine ‘not sustainable,’ Swedish foreign minister says
The EU must seize Russia’s frozen assets, Maria Malmer Stenergard believes, because any other solution would be unfair to Ukraine’s biggest backers.
www.politico.eu
November 24, 2025 at 8:27 AM
As a swede, it makes me proud. However, as @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social points out on X:
‘Countries like Sweden and the other Nordics are bearing a disproportionate burden in supporting Ukraine, while Italy and Spain contribute almost nothing. It’s way beyond time to call this out.‘
‘Countries like Sweden and the other Nordics are bearing a disproportionate burden in supporting Ukraine, while Italy and Spain contribute almost nothing. It’s way beyond time to call this out.‘
Foreign flows into US stocks (purple) have been unusually strong since the election a year ago. There's been talk that these inflows are currency hedged, but that's most likely not true. It's these inflows that caused the Dollar to stabilize and are now pushing it higher...
November 23, 2025 at 12:43 PM
Foreign flows into US stocks (purple) have been unusually strong since the election a year ago. There's been talk that these inflows are currency hedged, but that's most likely not true. It's these inflows that caused the Dollar to stabilize and are now pushing it higher...
No. A country's external balances don't really have anything to do (or very little) with the level of yields on government debt. That's because domestic buyers usually swamp foreign buyers. That's especially true in Japan, where foreign ownership of JGBs is very low...
November 23, 2025 at 10:38 AM
No. A country's external balances don't really have anything to do (or very little) with the level of yields on government debt. That's because domestic buyers usually swamp foreign buyers. That's especially true in Japan, where foreign ownership of JGBs is very low...
Japan has huge gov't debt, but low long-term yields. Here's the thing. High debt is real. Low long-term yields are not. They're pretend. BoJ caps yields with ongoing bond buying. Without this, yields would be far higher and Japan would be in a debt crisis...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/japanese-d...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/japanese-d...
November 23, 2025 at 9:59 AM
Japan has huge gov't debt, but low long-term yields. Here's the thing. High debt is real. Low long-term yields are not. They're pretend. BoJ caps yields with ongoing bond buying. Without this, yields would be far higher and Japan would be in a debt crisis...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/japanese-d...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/japanese-d...
Look at how much Unicredit's stock price fell in my chart during the sovereign debt crisis in 2010-12. The doom loop effect is huge...
November 23, 2025 at 9:58 AM
Look at how much Unicredit's stock price fell in my chart during the sovereign debt crisis in 2010-12. The doom loop effect is huge...
Without ECB actions to cap yields, Italian and Spanish gov't bond yields would be far higher. Banks like Unicredit hold a lot of that gov't debt on their balance sheet as their riskfree asset. So when the value of that riskfree asset drops, the value of the bank drops. It's called the "doom loop..."
November 23, 2025 at 9:23 AM
Without ECB actions to cap yields, Italian and Spanish gov't bond yields would be far higher. Banks like Unicredit hold a lot of that gov't debt on their balance sheet as their riskfree asset. So when the value of that riskfree asset drops, the value of the bank drops. It's called the "doom loop..."
Reposted by Robin Brooks
When a Swedish minister gets this sassy, it means that they’re furious.
And rightly so. It’s amazing that the small ones have punched so far above their weight, but inexcusable that the bigger ones haven’t followed suit. There simply are capacity limits for the small ones.
And rightly so. It’s amazing that the small ones have punched so far above their weight, but inexcusable that the bigger ones haven’t followed suit. There simply are capacity limits for the small ones.
Nordic countries paying most for Ukraine ‘not sustainable,’ Swedish foreign minister says
The EU must seize Russia’s frozen assets, Maria Malmer Stenergard believes, because any other solution would be unfair to Ukraine’s biggest backers.
www.politico.eu
November 21, 2025 at 8:15 PM
When a Swedish minister gets this sassy, it means that they’re furious.
And rightly so. It’s amazing that the small ones have punched so far above their weight, but inexcusable that the bigger ones haven’t followed suit. There simply are capacity limits for the small ones.
And rightly so. It’s amazing that the small ones have punched so far above their weight, but inexcusable that the bigger ones haven’t followed suit. There simply are capacity limits for the small ones.
Like all Europeans, I'm dismayed by what's happening on Ukraine. But - in the end - we have ourselves to blame. For example, if we'd given Russia's frozen reserves to Ukraine, that money wouldn't now be up for grabs. We need a long, hard look in the mirror.
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-does-t...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-does-t...
November 22, 2025 at 12:59 PM
Like all Europeans, I'm dismayed by what's happening on Ukraine. But - in the end - we have ourselves to blame. For example, if we'd given Russia's frozen reserves to Ukraine, that money wouldn't now be up for grabs. We need a long, hard look in the mirror.
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-does-t...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-does-t...
Italy's 10y20y forward gov't bond yield (red) is 3.8% (lhs), while France's is 5.1% (rhs). That makes no sense given that Italy's debt is 140%, while France is 110%. This distorted market pricing is due to ECB actions to cap Italian yields in 2022. The ECB needs to be forced out of bond markets...
November 22, 2025 at 10:36 AM
Italy's 10y20y forward gov't bond yield (red) is 3.8% (lhs), while France's is 5.1% (rhs). That makes no sense given that Italy's debt is 140%, while France is 110%. This distorted market pricing is due to ECB actions to cap Italian yields in 2022. The ECB needs to be forced out of bond markets...
Japan is in denial on debt. It's 10-year bond yield is only 1.8% (blue), which looks ok, but that same yield 10-years forward is 4.0% (orange) and 20-years forward is 4.4% (red). The only certainty for Japan is that it'll have either a debt crisis or a currency crisis with even more Yen deval...
November 22, 2025 at 10:14 AM
Japan is in denial on debt. It's 10-year bond yield is only 1.8% (blue), which looks ok, but that same yield 10-years forward is 4.0% (orange) and 20-years forward is 4.4% (red). The only certainty for Japan is that it'll have either a debt crisis or a currency crisis with even more Yen deval...
Reposted by Robin Brooks
When he’s right, he’s right
The Unicredit bid for Commerzbank is wrong. Germany allows the ECB to cap Italy's yield, which artificially inflates Italy's banking sector. When Germany then isn't enthusiastic about the Unicredit bid, it's accused of undermining banking union. Madness...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-unicre...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-unicre...
November 22, 2025 at 10:02 AM
When he’s right, he’s right
The Unicredit bid for Commerzbank is wrong. Germany allows the ECB to cap Italy's yield, which artificially inflates Italy's banking sector. When Germany then isn't enthusiastic about the Unicredit bid, it's accused of undermining banking union. Madness...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-unicre...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-unicre...
November 22, 2025 at 9:56 AM
The Unicredit bid for Commerzbank is wrong. Germany allows the ECB to cap Italy's yield, which artificially inflates Italy's banking sector. When Germany then isn't enthusiastic about the Unicredit bid, it's accused of undermining banking union. Madness...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-unicre...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-unicre...
Reposted by Robin Brooks
AI cools; Fed to rescue? #finsky
US stocks are feeling very iffy. We're only down 5% from the all-time high in October, but the narrative around the AI boom has definitely changed. I'm getting more and more questions if Fed rate cuts can bail out the market, which tells you something...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/can-the-fe...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/can-the-fe...
November 21, 2025 at 1:12 AM
AI cools; Fed to rescue? #finsky