Armin Schaefer
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arminschaefer.bsky.social
Armin Schaefer
@arminschaefer.bsky.social
4.8K followers 790 following 170 posts
Professor for Comparative Politics @uni_mainz
| Democracy | Political Participation | Inequality | Responsiveness & Populism
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Reposted by Armin Schaefer
powimz.bsky.social
January 12, 2026 at 7:38 AM
Reposted by Armin Schaefer
kurtfischer.bsky.social
Habermas weist auf ein wichtiges Buch von @arminschaefer.bsky.social und Michael Zürn hin: Die demokratische Regression @suhrkamp.de
Es zeigt, wie das demokratische (Gerechtigkeits)Versprechen durch die von der Elefantenkurve beschriebene Einkommensentwicklung an Glaubwürdigkeit verloren hat. 5/5
January 16, 2026 at 9:45 AM
Reposted by Armin Schaefer
peterla.bsky.social
Very happy to see this out in CPS! We study class identities and their social and political relevance over several decades in Britain, Denmark, Norway, and the US. A small thread:

journals.sagepub.com/eprint/SIRW4...
January 8, 2026 at 9:27 AM
Reposted by Armin Schaefer
p-hunermund.com
"Looking at the share of a justice's decisions that favor the wealthy over the course of our analysis period, we see that the court becomes more and more polarized along partisan lines." www.nber.org/papers/w34643

American democracy is truly in dire straits...
January 5, 2026 at 7:11 AM
Reposted by Armin Schaefer
garritzmannj.bsky.social
we have 5 positions open at @goetheuni.bsky.social in Frankfurt
- a 4,5 year postdoc in my @erc.europa.eu project on the educational cleavage
- 2 postdoc & 2 PhD positions, 4 years, in a research group on Reconfiguration & Internalization of Social Structure

www.uni-frankfurt.de/48794784/FB0...
Goethe-Universität — FB03 - Gesellschaftswissenschaften
Die Goethe-Universität ist eine forschungsstarke Hochschule in der europäischen Finanzmetropole Frankfurt. Lebendig, urban und weltoffen besitzt sie als Stiftungsuniversität ein einzigartiges Maß an E...
www.uni-frankfurt.de
December 17, 2025 at 10:43 AM
arminschaefer.bsky.social
In line with the 'credibility revolution', we are thinking about research designs that allow us to get closer to causal effects. Those who use surveys have often turned to survey experiments. At the same time, survey response rates have dropped considerably. Below are the figures for the ESS.
This plot shows average response rates of the European Social Survey. Between 2002 and 2023 the have fallen from 61 to 41 per cent. This plot breaks down ESS response rates by country. In almost all countries, the rate has gone down over time - in some cases, like Sweden, quite dramatically so.
December 16, 2025 at 9:27 AM
Reposted by Armin Schaefer
bjpols.bsky.social
From October 2025 -

Paths to Power: A New Dataset on the Social Profile of Governments - https://cup.org/47i6oKQ

- @jacobnyrup.bsky.social, @chknutsen.bsky.social, @peterla.bsky.social & Ina Lyftingsmo Kristiansen

#OpenAccess
BJPolS abstract describing the introduction of a global database called PtP, which contains detailed individual-level data on political, occupational, and social backgrounds from 144,789 cabinet members across 141 countries between 1966 and 2021. The text highlights the database's relevance to researchers in various fields including political and social sciences.
December 9, 2025 at 4:40 AM
Reposted by Armin Schaefer
unimainz.bsky.social
🎧 JETZT REINHÖREN: #Forschungspodcast #MindsOfMainz – #DerGutenbergTalk | Folge 28: Demokratie im Fokus: Warum Politische Theorie heute die Gesellschaft bewegt | mit Prof. Claudia Landwehr 👉 www.magazin.uni-mainz.de/minds-of-main…#Demokratiei#Politikwissenschaftf#PolitischeTheorieie
December 6, 2025 at 12:03 PM
Reposted by Armin Schaefer
adambonica.bsky.social
Study after study shows campaign ads barely move the needle. So where does money’s real power come from? I ranked the five ways money corrupts politics—from least to most corrosive. What I’ve learned from 15 years of tracking political money:
Money Doesn't Buy Elections. It Does Something Worse.
Campaign ads barely move the needle. The real influence is hiding in plain sight.
open.substack.com
December 6, 2025 at 8:22 PM
Reposted by Armin Schaefer
clarawe.bsky.social
1/ Does growing up poor always lead to political apathy?

Very happy to share my first paper published (open access) in @electoralstudies.bsky.social, where I show that parents' influence mitigates the poverty gap in participation, while economic mobility does not.

🔗 shorturl.at/p5Bac
December 4, 2025 at 10:54 AM
Reposted by Armin Schaefer
jakemgrumbach.bsky.social
After becoming a congressional leader, a politician’s stock portfolio beats out those of peers by 47 (!!!) percentage points a year through trades timed around bills and firms that later get government contracts

www.nber.org/papers/w34524

via @florianederer.bsky.social
"Captain Gains" on Capitol Hill Shang-Jin Wei & Yifan Zhou WORKING PAPER 34524 DOI 10.3386/w34524 ISSUE DATE November 2025 Using transaction-level data on US congressional stock trades, we find that lawmakers who later ascend to leadership positions perform similarly to matched peers beforehand but outperform them by 47 percentage points annually after ascension. Leaders' superior performance arises through two mechanisms. The political influence channel is reflected in higher returns when their party controls the chamber, sales of stocks preceding regulatory actions, and purchase of stocks whose firms receiving more government contracts and favorable party support on bills. The corporate access channel is reflected in stock trades that predict subsequent corporate news and greater returns on donor-owned or home-state firms. 令 1 1 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 Year Figure 2: Estimated dynamic quasi-difference-in-differences coefficient, di, of equation(3), with vertical dashed lines representing 90 percent confidence intervals. The point estimate of the year in which the lawmaker became a congressional leader (Year 0) is normalized to zero. BHAR over the 250 days following each trade is the dependent variable and calculated using the Fama-French five-factor plus momentum as the benchmark model.
December 3, 2025 at 1:42 AM
Reposted by Armin Schaefer
kai-arzheimer.com
Join us! Die Abteilung für Innenpolitik & Politische Soziologie sucht zum 01.04. eine*n neue*n Kollegin*en. Wir bieten: volle Promotionsstelle (EG13) für drei Jahre (Verlängerung um 3 Jahre möglich), flexible Arbeitszeitregelungen, kollegiales & forschungsstarkes Team. Mehr Informationen hier👇
stellenboerse.uni-mainz.de
December 2, 2025 at 2:12 PM
Reposted by Armin Schaefer
powimz.bsky.social
Am Mittwoch, 3. Dezember (16 Uhr, P5), freuen wir uns auf den Besuch von Jale Tosun (Universität Heidelberg) in unserer #Forschungswerkstatt. Sie spricht zum Thema "Die Wirksamkeit nationaler Klimapolitiken: Evidenz aus 43 OECD- und Schwellenländern".
Alle sind herzlich willkommen.
November 28, 2025 at 1:28 PM
Reposted by Armin Schaefer
powimz.bsky.social
Heute begrüßen wir Markus Patberg (Universität Hamburg) in der #Forschungswerkstatt (16 Uhr in P5, Philo). Wir freuen uns auf einen spannenden Vortrag zum Thema: „Oligarchische Vereinnahmung: Soziale Medien und politische Öffentlichkeit"

Alle sind herzlich willkommen!
November 26, 2025 at 7:10 AM
Reposted by Armin Schaefer
ipp-jgu.bsky.social
Members of the IPP gathered for the 11th consecutive retreat in Bodenheim close to Mainz on 13th and 14th November. The main purpose of the retreat was once again to foster the exchange of research ideas and collaboration and talk about the future of the IPP.
November 24, 2025 at 3:52 PM
Reposted by Armin Schaefer
kai-arzheimer.com
There are very good reasons 𝘯𝘰𝘵 to panic about the #AfD's success in the #btw25 election, but their result is certainly historic. Want to know more? Or just can't go back to sleep? Tune in to my chat with Selcuk Gultasli
Professor Kai Arzheimer: AfD’s Surge is a Game-Changer in Post-War German Politics
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) has doubled its vote share in the February 23 elections, marking what Professor Kai Arzheimer calls “a turning point in post-war German politics.” While expected, this surge solidifies the AfD as Germany’s second-strongest party, normalizing far-right rhetoric in mainstream discourse. Arzheimer highlights how economic anxiety, deindustrialization, and anti-immigration sentiment fuel AfD’s rise. He also warns that mainstream parties risk losing credibility by mimicking far-right policies rather than offering bold alternatives. Despite its growing influence, AfD’s radicalization presents both an opportunity and a challenge for German democracy. As political fragmentation deepens, the response of centrist parties will determine whether this shift is temporary—or part of a long-term realignment. Interview by Selcuk Gultasli The Alternative for Germany (AfD) has cemented itself as a formidable force in German politics, nearly doubling its vote share in the February 23 elections compared to 2021. According to Professor Kai Arzheimer, a...
www.youtube.com
November 23, 2025 at 8:55 AM
Reposted by Armin Schaefer
asheinze.bsky.social
🎉 New publication 🎉 Why do #youngpeople vote for the #AfD? This question has kept our research project busy for quite some time, so I'm beyond excited that our first article - co-authored with @timonscheuer.bsky.social - is now out in #GermanPolitics! 🤩 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
November 22, 2025 at 9:36 AM
arminschaefer.bsky.social
We look forward to welcoming @theresmatthiess.bsky.social to the Democracy Seminar today! 👇👇👇 What a treat!
theresmatthiess.bsky.social Theres Matthieß @theresmatthiess.bsky.social · Nov 20
🚂 On my way to the Democracy Seminar at @unimainz.bsky.social to pesent a joint paper with A. Ecker at the Democracy Seminar on "Citizens’ Preferences on Governing with Radical Right Parties and Flexible Majorities". Thank you for the invitation @arminschaefer.bsky.social @clandwehr.bsky.social
Aktuelles | Mainzer Zentrum für empirische Demokratieforschung
www.mzedf.uni-mainz.de
November 20, 2025 at 11:10 AM
Reposted by Armin Schaefer
wahlforschung.thorstenfaas.de
Vorgezogene Bundestagswahlen sind außergewöhnlich - geschenkt. Aber 2025 war für junge Menschen doppelt ärgerlich. Wer im Sommer 2025 18 wurde, hätte im Sep 25 eigentlich wählen dürfen, im Feb 25 aber nicht. Ca. 400.000 junge Menschen, die jetzt (voraussichtlich...) erst 2029 erstmals wählen dürfen.
November 19, 2025 at 7:30 PM
Reposted by Armin Schaefer
wahlforschung.thorstenfaas.de
Studienzeit - Fadenzeit. Erst gilt das angesichts der historischen Bedeutung des heutigen Tages, denn heute vor genau 53 Jahren fand die erste vorgezogene Bundestagswahl EVER statt. Noch dazu waren erstmals auch 18-, 19- u 20-Jährige dabei. Grund genug für eine Jugendwahlstudie zur BTW25.
November 19, 2025 at 7:30 PM
arminschaefer.bsky.social
Interesting! 👇
lauraserra.bsky.social Laura Serra @lauraserra.bsky.social · Nov 13
🚨 New paper with Maria Grasso on generational shifts in political values. Despite talk of rising age polarisation, we show that gaps in attitudes are stable or even narrowing. Economic attitudes move in cycles, while social values have become more liberal – mainly due to generational replacement.
Political Socialisation in the UK: Describing Generational Changes of Values - International Journal of Politics, Culture, and Society
A growing bulk of research examines intergenerational shifts in attitudes and the extent to which they are attributable to new cohorts of voters being socialised under different socioeconomic and cult...
link.springer.com
November 13, 2025 at 12:51 PM
Reposted by Armin Schaefer
clandwehr.bsky.social
Greatly looking forward to @breunig.bsky.social speaking in our research seminar @powimz.bsky.social on Wednesday!
November 10, 2025 at 12:34 PM
Reposted by Armin Schaefer
smotus.bsky.social
Bartels did a study 20+ years ago looking at how much a member of Congress' record coincided with their constituents' views, broken down by income. MCs are a lot more responsive to their wealthier constituents. Think about whom SNAP and flight delays affect. www.russellsage.org/sites/defaul...
November 10, 2025 at 1:11 AM
Reposted by Armin Schaefer
kathrinkuehn.bsky.social
Rechtsextreme, demokratiegefährdende Einstellungen, was ist wichtig, im Hinterkopf zu haben, wenn es um Ergebnisse wie die der Mitte-Studie geht? Einordnungen mit Politikwissenschaftler & Rechtsextremismusforscher @kai-arzheimer.com - 30min Vertiefung 🎧 www.deutschlandfunk.de/mitte-studie... 2/2
Politologe Arzheimer - Viele Menschen stehen fest auf dem Boden der Demokratie
AfD, Pegida, Neonazis - die Mitte-Studie macht den Machern Sorgen. Politiologe Arzheimer warnt, Einstellunge mit Politik gleichzusetzen.
www.deutschlandfunk.de
November 6, 2025 at 10:38 AM
Reposted by Armin Schaefer
indubioproreto.bsky.social
Crazy support numbers for Zohran Mamdani among young women: 84% (!) of women aged 18-29 voted for Mamdani in the NYC Mayoral Election.

But also important: young men voted MUCH MORE STRONGLY (67%) for Mamdani than old men (37%).
November 5, 2025 at 8:49 PM