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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 1d

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 1d

Something happened during Kim Jong Un's visit to the new destroyer make Defense Minister No Kwang-chol (노광철) strip off his uniform. Maybe he was planning to shotgun a Taedonggang beer.

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 5d

🥖🍷🇫🇷

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 10d

A lesson one learns over and over again in defense procurement is that facts are usually fitted to service and policy preferences. The USAF wanted a new, blue ICBM so new silos are too expensive for the Trident D5, but a cost- and time-saver for Sentinel.

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 10d

The context is that the USAF now needs to new silos for Sentinel and that "the government will have to acquire private property" to site them, which other reporting indicates is in the hundreds of acres and may involve eminent domain.
breakingdefense.com/2025/08/new-...

New Sentinel ICBM silos, B-21's next milestone flight on USAF radar - Breaking Defense

Lt. Gen. Andrew Gebara said that the Air Force’s plan to build fresh silos for the Sentinel ICBM will save time and cost, but that a small number may not fit on existing federal lands.

breakingdefense.com

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 10d

I am old enough to remember when very serious people™️ said we couldn't save money by putting the D5 in silos because it would require expensive new silos and other infrastructure.

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Reposted by Jeffrey Lewis

Matthew Gault @mjgault.bsky.social · 13d

I worked through some more thoughts about mixing AI and nuclear weapons, an interview I wasn't able to use somewhere else, and what it's like to stare at the Chicago skyline while @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social tells you all the pieces that would be ash if anyone dropped a nuke on it

Which Way to Armageddon?

Thinking about the mix of artificial intelligence and nuclear weapons while staring at the Chicago skyline.

angryplanetpod.com

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 13d

This is pure cope by the ROK prez. The US IC concluded in 2017 (per @nktpnd.bsky.social) that a North Korean nuclear warhead would survive reentry. Every country that figured out how to build an ICBM also figured out reentry. WE SHOULD STOP DARING KIM TO PROVE IT.

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Reposted by Jeffrey Lewis

John Forsberg @johnforsberg.bsky.social · 14d

Some fun reading tonight in prep for episode 20. Heard about this book listening to the Arms Control Wonk podcast. @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social

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Reposted by Jeffrey Lewis

Aaron Stein @aaronstein1.bsky.social · 16d

We have big plans @fpri.bsky.social and cannot wait to get started with our new distringuished fellow @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social and fellow @slair.bsky.social

www.fpri.org/news/2025/09...

FPRI Welcomes Dr. Jeffrey Lewis and Sam Lair as National Security Program Fellows - Foreign Policy Research Institute

Philadelphia, PA

www.fpri.org

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · Sep 8

In 1986, Sandy Spector testified that he intended to verify the Vanunu photographs of the Dimona nuclear complex by comparing exterior shots to satellite images -- exactly what we do today. So I downloaded the SPOT image to see what he had available and ... yikes.

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · Sep 7

Yes, the US can deliver SEAL teams from VLS tubes on SSGNS. Whether it should is another question, but it definitely can.

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Reposted by Jeffrey Lewis

Outrider Foundation @outrider.org · Jul 28

Journalists: Please join us at the @outrider.org Nuclear Reporting Summit on October 9-10!

This free, two-day event will focus on how #nuclearweapons issues intersect with AI, community health, #climatechange, local economies, and the #environment.

🔗 APPLY NOW: outrider.org/conference/2...

2025 Outrider Nuclear Reporting Summit

This fall, in a former nuclear missile silo, we'll convene journalists at the nexus of health, climate, artificial intelligence, outer space, and national security to discuss how these issues are inte...

outrider.org

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · Aug 30

… or Janne Nolan on Weinberger. “Cap, it go boom.” Look, the policies are bad and some of these people are dumb and the process is a mess … but when Democrats are in office and the policies are bad in different ways, the same stories will drop. The reporting was great, the online commentary is not.

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · Aug 30

Some of this dysfunction is normal to any administration — “newcomer encounters steep learning curve” — but is being decontextualuzed to validate a sense that Trump is uniquely incompetent. Read Garthoff on how badly Kissinger misunderstood things his staff tried to explain to him …

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Reposted by Jeffrey Lewis

Jonathan McDowell @planet4589.bsky.social · Aug 29

I talk to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (the keepers of he famous doomsday clock!)

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists @thebulletin.org · Aug 29

Astronomer and astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell @planet4589.bsky.social describes some of the many ways in which international friction—and even war—could begin in orbit.

Will the next world war begin in orbit? Jonathan McDowell on strategic competition in space

Jonathan McDowell is a British-American astronomer and astrophysicist who, until two months ago, worked at the Harvard–Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics's Chandra X-ray Center, where he led the…

thebulletin.org

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · Aug 29

While I think leaving the NPT might expose Iran to additional Israeli or US military strikes, there are also politics in Iran … so I wouldn’t rule out decisions that privilege domestic reactions over international ones.

Nicole Grajewski @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social · Aug 28

Iran’s bill to withdraw from the NPT—introduced after the E3 triggered snapback—is now in the Majlis. If labeled “urgent,” it could reach a vote within days, with Guardian Council members present to expedite review and approval.

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · Aug 29

I suspect the problem is less Witkoff himself (lots of principals are rich and well-connected naïfs) and more the inability to find competent people to staff him. He was a successful real estate attorney; I am certain he can read memos.

Daniel Drezner @dandrezner.bsky.social · Aug 29

This entire article can be summed up as, “Steve Witkoff is an ignorant motherfucker.” www.politico.com/news/2025/08...

‘His inexperience shines through’: Steve Witkoff struggles to manage Russia as Trump peace envoy

Witkoff’s solo approach has led to repeated miscues with Russia, leaving Trump’s pledge to quickly end the war between Russia and Ukraine adrift.

www.politico.com

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · Aug 26

This is a cool opportunity for journalists tasked with covering the bomb.

Outrider Foundation @outrider.org · Jul 28

Journalists: Please join us at the @outrider.org Nuclear Reporting Summit on October 9-10!

This free, two-day event will focus on how #nuclearweapons issues intersect with AI, community health, #climatechange, local economies, and the #environment.

🔗 APPLY NOW: outrider.org/conference/2...

2025 Outrider Nuclear Reporting Summit

This fall, in a former nuclear missile silo, we'll convene journalists at the nexus of health, climate, artificial intelligence, outer space, and national security to discuss how these issues are inte...

outrider.org

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Reposted by Jeffrey Lewis

David @puca.bsky.social · Aug 18

The vessel mentioned in this article, Teriberka, departed south from Pankovo around 16:00 UTC on Wednesday, August 13, drifting off Novaya Zemlya around a point roughly midway between Pankovo & Belushya Guba.

It began sailing north this morning 18 August & arrived back at Pankovo a short time ago.

Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · Aug 13

www.reuters.com/world/europe...

Putin appears ready to test new missile as he prepares for Trump talks, researchers say

Russia appears to be preparing to test its new nuclear-armed, nuclear-powered cruise missile, according to two U.S. researchers and a Western security source, even as Russian President Vladimir Putin readies for talks on Ukraine with U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday.

www.reuters.com

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Reposted by Jeffrey Lewis

Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · Aug 15

Come work with me, @russianforces.org, and other great people at @unidir.org's WMD Programme as a Graduate Professional in Geneva or remotely unidir.org/job/graduate...

Graduate Professional (Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme, multiple positions) → UNIDIR

Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme is seeking a graduate professional to assist research and day-to-day work in the Nuclear Disarmament Verification workstream.

unidir.org

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · Aug 14

You've answered your own question. Russia's development of an endoatmospheric intercontinental delivery capability provides an obvious advantage in light of US investments in defenses against exoatmoapheric ballistic missiles.

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · Aug 13

"... existing missile defense capabilities employed in new and different ways as Golden Dome."

Kingston Reif on X: "-“There’ll be new capabilities required, but we’ll also be employing our existing capabilities in new and different ways” -"The president’s drawing a line in the sand for the end of his admin..Whatever we’ve got at that point is the initial capability" https://t.co/GCUZRMgDe6" / X

-“There’ll be new capabilities required, but we’ll also be employing our existing capabilities in new and different ways” -"The president’s drawing a line in the sand for the end of his admin..Whatever we’ve got at that point is the initial capability" https://t.co/GCUZRMgDe6

x.com

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · Aug 13

Fine, I should have written "...missile defenses like what is now called Golden Dome."

int_ijk @tbrunner.bsky.social · Aug 13

i don't see how a system that began its design phase a decade ago (or more, see also our open loop loopiness) can be described as "intended to whatever something undefined until trump made it up as a policy goal."

try: the reds will strut a dead bird, we may fuck up anyway.

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · Aug 13

Yes, as best I can tell, it’s open loop. There is a reason they do it in the arctic, although there is sometimes a radiation spike detected in Norway and elsewhere.

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